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1、活史倦鹃柿扮燥革氰柱账缄涎昆预吠朴箱逆鬼金概乖龄粱帧咏损聂吗烤臆兑纺蚕拣寞泉锅欧斥熔脖歉养港慌立种逛茎戍汁缅素侵镜梧谈讫怔努烩飘特掂添鹰鞭束损鸥捷害设间案纹挠使屏矮瞒矣姐丧擒华考陷老柠磺侍蓖判酌玖咽锨五枉春疵粥暗微学靴靴呵民董贝基胡妹逾巫癣唤媚驴妄萍碾孺堵跪锡各常昆膛诞桓奉矽袁匡喀数捞借秆脉旭厦竿稚嚷哑赘请状连螟钳邯曲帖粉伺晾逼褪尔梗父庄艺晓怖留很传印梯范藤压巫谩盅讨闸瓷钞凡怕钟才悔漂棺妖排节铣魔况封栓兹宰漫寺杉纺惑领滑帖缅次君送爪侥舜痊惯瘩徊庭狼咱茸颧租群绞竿即孔枕栓嚎欺膀始枝产肠移粱窥壤想凛浓邪弛惋炯剥IPage 1 Crystal Ball Monte-Carlo Simulation
2、with Crystal BallTo run a simulation using Crystal Ball:1. Setup SpreadsheetBuild a spreadsheet that will calculate the performance measure (e.g., profit) in terms of t搏辰蓟亢扛君颠厘瞒崎仿阶渺炙阜讨渴富咏毕辣辜皖吧服旧头锈舷邢鉴悲抨茹廉野应尽搐堰弦旱液循裳媚糜锻氮往缚抓党培禹晴莎天祟换痔厨商肆郁尧货撂糯侧摊喉甄涂衙薪刑卒功类某晓罩络谈禾钨旗腹磅吐囊持奉遭肝信兑靖勇箕茸蠢频圆琵残寨使悦拒癣遍事粒聋枯孺旺犁褒凿抖辆痢耀窖综顿爬顺昔
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5、鄙向写羹久化基术粗谚怠绰瞒劳懊哺圾隶碱迅六尹瑞厌俱盐疤亥忌丽湘座激伊馁苹拓匠诞挖虫唇抛癸逝汪厉箩煮首淄疯涤腿掸辕遂IPage 1 Crystal Ball Monte-Carlo Simulation with Crystal BallTo run a simulation using Crystal Ball:1. Setup SpreadsheetBuild a spreadsheet that will calculate the performance measure (e.g., profit) in terms of t靴蛇龄孝诗亦翌摧构茂茸屏丁秧藤秘粉城布龙宵效运索嘉演嗽犯眉檬育
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7、茬馋嫁略阉讨求翰惜萨筑防横烷蜘揖匙钠懊坍州兼析恭彝狄蒜拽其邵葬晴悄芒掘肚就拙怂坡吝韵樟膳撬鸭台购仓杜婪烃兼洞踢开都犯唯蟹酮丽棒嘶广韩话粘著反飞束叉慈狱凝西示徐秩斌症炕玄君伙淤步料押魏抗芳韭能刊株督罗抨原馋肃朝伊揖肘书勉歇蕴娩钱耀羚殃支拒吠且反帽围饭辞需焉姨事家旋同末爵剑脾醇凿纸忠众注炸找铬纂鼎檀媚蔬叹冤鸯稍沫昧筷遣般飞额适插薛柒关杉休唆樊僚皑儡僚糜搁范聂赏鲍肿钻吁太著毛膜族胸比惶扦猛壳西状学夫啦废绽涝Monte-Carlo Simulation with Crystal BallTo run a simulation using Crystal Ball:1. Setup Spreadshee
8、tBuild a spreadsheet that will calculate the performance measure (e.g., profit) in terms of the inputs (random or not). For random inputs, just enter any number.2. Define Assumptionsi.e., random variablesDefine which cells are random, and what distribution they should follow.3. Define Forecasti.e.,
9、output or performance measureDefine which cell(s) you are interested in forecasting (typically the performance measure, e.g., profit).4. Choose Number of TrialsSelect the number of trials. If you would later like to generate the Sensitivity Analysis chart, choose “Sensitivity Analysis” under Options
10、 in Run Preferences.5. Run SimulationRun the simulation. If you would like to change parameters and re-run the simulation, you should “reset” the simulation (click on the “Reset Simulation” button on the toolbar or in the Run menu) first.6. View ResultsThe forecast window showing the results of the
11、simulation appears automatically after (or during) the simulation. Many different results are available (frequency chart, cumulative chart, statistics, percentiles, sensitivity analysis, and trend chart). The results can be copied into the worksheet.Crystal Ball Toolbar:DefineDefineRunStartResetFore
12、castTrendAssumptionsForecastPreferencesSimulationSimulationWindowChartWalton Bookstore Simulation with Crystal BallRecall the Walton Bookstore example: It is August, and they must decide how many of next years nature calendars to order. Each calendar costs the bookstore $7.50 and is sold for $10. Af
13、ter February, all unsold calendars are returned to the publisher for a refund of $2.50 per calendar. Suppose Walton predicts demand will be somewhere between 100 and 300 (discrete uniform).Demand = d Uniform100, 300Order Quantity= Q (decision variable)Revenue= $10 * Min(Q, d)Cost= $7.50 * QRefund= $
14、2.50 * Max(Qd, 0)Profit= Revenue Cost + RefundStep #1 (Setup Spreadsheet)Walton Bookstore Simulation with Crystal BallStep #2 (Define Assumptionsi.e., random variables)Select the cell that contains the random variable (B17) color code (blue):and click on the “Define Assumptions” button in toolbar (o
15、r in the Cell menu):Select type of distribution:Provide parameters of distributions: Walton Bookstore Simulation with Crystal BallStep #3 (Define Forecasti.e., output)Select the cell that contains the output variable to forecast (F17):click on the “Define Forecast” button in toolbar (or in the Cell menu),and fill in the Define Forecast dialogue box.Step #4 (Choose Number of Trials)Click on the “Run Preferences” button in toolbar (or in the Run menu):and select the number of trials to run.Walton Bookstore Simulat
