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1、一、案例分析的目的按国际货币基金组织的划分口径可以把货币供给划分为：M0 (现钞)：是指流通于银行体系以外的现钞，即居民手中的现钞和企业单位的备用金，不包括商业银行的库存现金。M1 (狭义货币)：M0加上商业银行活期存款构成。M2 (广义货币)：由M1加上准货币构成。准货币由银行的定期存款、储蓄存款、外币存款以及各种短期信用工具如银行承兑汇票、短期国库券等构成。我国参照国际货币基金组织的划分口径，把货币供给层次划分如下：M0 =现金M1 =M0 +活期存款M2 = M1+城乡居民储蓄存款+定期存款+其他存款商业票据大额可转让定期存单 在这三个层次中，M0的流动性最强，M1次之，M2的流动性最差
2、。M0与消费变动密切相关，是最活跃的货币；M1反映居民和企业资金松紧变化，是经济周期波动的先行指标，流动性仅次于M0；M2流动性偏弱，但反映的是社会总需求的变化和未来通货膨胀的压力状况，通常所说的货币供应量，主要指M2。1. M1反映着经济中的现实购买力；M2不仅反映现实的购买力，还反映潜在的购买力。若M1增速较快，则消费和终端市场活跃；若M2增速较快，则投资和中间市场活跃。中央银行和各商业银行可以据此判定货币政策。M2过高而M1过低，表明投资过热、需求不旺，有危机风险；M1过高M2过低，表明需求强劲、投资不足，有涨价风险。2. M1增加表示货币市场流通性增强，M2中包括了M1，因此，再排除M
3、1变化因素后，M2的增减代表了储蓄的增加，货币流通性降低。 根据央行的数据，2009年9月份货币供应，M2余额58.5万亿，同比增长29.3%，比上年末加快11.5个百分点。M1余额20.2万亿元，增长29.5%，加快20.5个百分点。月末与的同比与环比增速双双创出了新高。与此同时，的同比增速已经超越了的同比增速，这意味着整个经济领域的活跃度已被有效激活，储蓄开始活期化。本案例主要研究M1的数量与M2的数量关系。希望得出现实的购买力与潜在购买力的相对关系。二、实验数据本实验选取的数据是2001年11月到2013年10月的月度数据，整理如下：时间M1M22001-1156579.60154088
4、.302001-1259871.60158301.902002-0160576.10159639.302002-0258702.90160935.602002-0359474.80164064.602002-0460461.30164570.602002-0561284.90166061.002002-0663144.00169601.202002-0763487.80170851.102002-0864868.80173250.902002-0966797.00176982.402002-1067100.30177294.202002-1167992.80179736.302002-1270
5、882.10185007.302003-0172405.70190488.302003-0269756.60190108.402003-0371438.80194487.302003-0471321.20196130.102003-0572777.80199505.202003-0675923.20204931.402003-0776152.80206193.102003-0877033.00210591.902003-0979163.90213567.102003-1080267.10214469.402003-1180814.90216351.702003-1284118.60221222
6、.802004-0183805.90225101.902004-0283556.40227050.702004-0385815.60231654.602004-0485603.60233627.902004-0586780.40234842.402004-0688627.10238427.502004-0787982.20238127.002004-0889125.30239729.202004-0990439.10243756.902004-1090782.50243740.302004-1192387.10247135.602004-1295969.70254107.002005-0197
7、079.00257708.502005-0292815.00259357.302005-0394743.20264588.902005-0494593.70266992.702005-0595802.00269240.502005-0698601.30275785.502005-0797674.10276966.302005-0899377.70281288.202005-09100964.00287438.302005-10101752.00287591.602005-11104125.80292350.402005-12107278.70298755.702006-01107250.703
8、03571.702006-02104357.10304516.302006-03106737.10310490.702006-04106389.10313702.302006-05109219.20316709.802006-06112342.40322756.402006-07112653.00324010.802006-08114845.70327886.702006-09116814.10331865.402006-10118360.00332747.202006-11121645.00337504.202006-12126035.10345603.602007-01128484.103
9、51498.802007-02126258.10358659.302007-03127881.30364093.702007-04127677.76367425.572007-05130275.80369718.152007-06135847.40377832.152007-07136237.43383884.882007-08140993.21387205.042007-09142591.57393098.912007-10144649.33394204.172007-11148009.82399757.912007-12152519.17403401.302008-01154872.594
10、17846.172008-02150177.88421037.842008-03150867.47423054.532008-04151681.41429240.912008-05153344.75436221.602008-06154820.15443141.022008-07154992.44446362.172008-08156889.92448846.682008-09155748.97452898.712008-10157194.36453133.322008-11157826.63458644.662008-12166217.13475166.602009-01165214.344
11、96135.312009-02166149.60506708.072009-03176541.13530626.712009-04178213.57540481.212009-05182025.58548263.512009-06193138.15568916.202009-07195889.27573102.852009-08200394.83576698.952009-09201708.14585405.342009-10207545.74586643.292009-11212493.18594604.722009-12220001.51606225.012010-01229588.986
12、25609.292010-02224286.95636072.262010-03229397.93649947.462010-04233909.76656561.222010-05236497.88663351.372010-06240580.00673921.722010-07240664.07674051.482010-08244340.64687506.922010-09243821.90696471.502010-10253313.17699776.742010-11259420.32710339.032010-12266621.54725851.792011-01261765.017
13、33884.832011-02259200.50736130.862011-03266255.48758130.882011-04266766.91757384.562011-05269289.63763409.222011-06274662.57780820.852011-07270545.66772923.652011-08273393.77780852.302011-09267193.16787406.202011-10276552.67816829.252011-11281416.37825493.942011-12289847.70851590.902012-01270010.40855898.892012-02270312.11867171.422012-03277998.11895565.502012-04274983.82889604.042012-05278656.31900048.772012-06287526.17924991.202012-07283090.68919072.402012-08285739.27924894.592012-09286788.21943688.752012-10293309.78936404.282012-11296883
