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1、Asia Pan-AsiaTelecommunications2 July 2010Asian Telecoms Sector Half-time review in a challenging yearWilliam BrattonResearch Analyst (+852) 2203 6186 1H10 trends generally support our regional sector viewThe Asian telco sector has had a relatively good 1H10 with strong performances in Malaysia, Chi
2、na and Thailand while the Indian, Philippine and Indonesian telco sectors have performed the worst. We expect the key 1H10 themes (smartphones, competition and NBNs) to persist into 2H10 and maintain our regional preferences. Within the sector we recommend over-weighting China, Indonesia, Taiwan and
3、 Thailand and under-weighting India, Korea, Malaysia and the Philippines. Our preferred telcos remain AIS, CHT, LGT, STH, TLKM and Unicom.A relatively good 2010 first half for the Asian telco sectorThe MSCI Asia ex-JP Telecom Services Index (MXASJTC) is up 3% over the lastsix months and has out-perf
4、ormed the MSCI Asia ex-JP Index (MXASJ) by approx8%. Nearly two-thirds of DB covered telcos achieved absolute price gains and most DB covered telcos out-performed their local benchmarks since end-2009.Specifically, the best 1H10 performing sectors across the region in terms of totalmarket cap change
5、s were Malaysia (+9%) and China (+8%) while the worst wereIndia (-12%), the Philippines (-7%) and Indonesia (-7%). The best performing telco was XL Axiata while both Axiata and PCCW achieved 20% price gains over thelast six months. In contrast, during 1H10 TCNZs price fell 24% (close to 20yr lows),
6、Tata is down 22%, Bharti lost 20% and Telkom declined 19% (see insidefor 1H10 reviews for specific stocks).Key 1H10 themes likely to persist into 2H101H10 sector themes were generally dominated by smartphones and mobile data(in Korea, Singapore and Taiwan), competition trends (especially in India an
7、d thePhilippines) and National Broadband Network developments (in Australia, Malaysia, New Zealand and Singapore). We expect these same issues to continue to dominate into 2H10. However, the actual impact of NBNs on marketcompetition and structures is likely to become clearer (we believe concerns th
8、atNBN will result in long-term structural changes are misplaced) while we also expect a greater understanding in 2H10 of the actual economics of mobile data(we think mobile data growth will not be as beneficial for telcos as often believed).However, although the sectors fundamental themes remain dif
9、ficult, some markets and specific stocks still remain attractive. In addition, the sector maybenefit from general uncertainty given its underlying defensiveness.Maintaining our regional sector preferences into 2H10Our regional sector strategy is significantly influenced by competition trends. As are
10、sult, although YTD trends have generally reflected our regional preferences, we maintain our recommended sector weightings into 2H10. Specifically, werecommend investors stay or go overweight the Chinese, Indonesian, Taiwan andThai telco sectors, and stay or go under-weight the Indian, Korean, Malay
11、sian andPhilippine sectors. Within this context, our regional top picks are AIS, Chunghwa, LGT, Starhub, Telkom and Unicom. In particular, Chunghwa is our regionally preferred defensive yield telco and we recommend both Unicom and Telkom forinvestors seeking exposure to the sectors increasingly rare
12、 growth opportunities.Our standard valuation methodology is DCF analysis and key risks are competition, regulation and technology (see p17). See p15 for regional comps.Industry Update Top picks AIS (ADVA.BK),THB86.75 Buy China Unicom (0762.HK),HKD10.54 Buy CHT (2412.TW),TWD64.20 Buy LG Telecom (0326
13、40.KS),KRW7,740.00 Buy Telkom (TLKM.JK),IDR7,700.00 Buy Companies featured AIS (ADVA.BK),THB86.75 Buy 2009A 2010E 2011E P/E (x) 14.6 13.6 14.1EV/EBITDA (x) 5.6 5.6 6.1Price/book (x) 3.6 4.5 4.5China Unicom (0762.HK),HKD10.54 Buy 2009A 2010E 2011E P/E (x) 21.4 30.2 22.0EV/EBITDA (x) 4.6 5.0 4.7Price/book (x) 1.0 1.0 1.0CHT (2412.TW),TWD64.20 Buy 2009A 2010E 2011E P/E (x) 14.0 14.4 14.4EV/E
