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1、 西南交通大学与国立南澳大学MBA学位论文 第I页 西 南 交 通 大 学国 立 南 澳 大 学工商管理硕士（MBA）学位论文成都市物流仓储设施市场投资分析Classified Index:（此处填国内图书分类号）U.D.C:（此处填国际图书分类号）Southwest Jiaotong University & University of South AustraliaMaster Degree ThesisMARKET STUDY OF CHENGDU LOGISTICS WAREHOUSE INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIESGrade:2008Candidate: LEI T
2、AOStudent ID: 100107261Academic Degree Applied for:Master of Business AdministrationDecember 10, 2013学位论文版权使用授权书本学位论文作者完全了解学校有关保留、使用学位论文的规定，同意学校保留并向国家有关部门或机构送交论文的复印件和电子版，允许论文被查阅和借阅。本人授权西南交通大学可以将本论文的全部或部分内容编入有关数据库进行检索，可以采用影印、缩印或扫描等复印手段保存和汇编本学位论文。本学位论文属于1保密，在 3 年解密后适用本授权书；2不保密，使用本授权书。（请在以上方框内打“”）学位论文作
3、者签名： 指导老师签名：日期： 日期：摘 要成都位于四川省中部，是中国西部地区重要城市。成都发展的目标是成为中国中西部创业环境最优、人居环境最佳、综合实力最强的现代特大中心城市，并致力于构建中国中西部的金融中心。在过去十年里，成都的国内生产总值、零售销售额、外商投资和货运总量一直保持持续稳定的增长。自08年4季度金融危机爆发之后，受国内外租赁需求的影响，工业增长率放缓。尽管如此，经济增长也呈现出积极迹象，2009年全市实现地区生产总值4502.6亿元，增长14.7%。成都的物流市场发展从2005年开始。近年来，随着政府规划将成都建设为中国西部物流中心，新兴的物流园区和中心涌现出大量的新增物流设
4、施。随着物流市场的发展和对高规格仓库的需求增长，陈旧的仓库和落后的物流技术逐渐被淘汰。很多物流公司继续开拓新的配送方式、迁入符合现代物流业发展的高标准的新仓库以此整合低效率的分销网络，并提高物流效率。拟投资项目位于成都市政府规划的主要物流园区之一 成都西南方向的成都航空港物流园区，交通网络发达，靠近高速公路、大件路和机场，能快速的到达市区和周边地区。根据目前市面上仓库所处的地理位置不同租金差异较大，且根据建筑标准不同分为A级和B 级仓储设施，A级仓库的租金在RMB17-24/平方米/月，B级仓库的租金在RMB11-16/平方米/月。随着仓储需求的不断增大，仓库租金快速上涨。自2006年到200
5、8年，租金的年增长率为4.8%，均价达到RMB17.22/平方米/月；至2009年3季度，租金均价为RMB19.51/平方米/月，同比增长8.3%。随着大量的物流设施涌入市场，这将为物流市场带来更多机遇。高规格仓库的竣工，土地价格的增长，建安费上涨，火车东站重建促使大量客户搬迁、升级和新设物流点，虽然会造成市场竞争激烈，但保守估计仓库租金仍然会以3%的年增长率持续上涨。从2007年到2008年，市面上仓库的平均空置率保持在14%。2009年3季度，增长为26%。A级仓库和B级仓库不存在显著的空置率差异。随着2009年4季度4个项目的竣工，2009年底，仓库空置率增加为47%。根据历史数据和项目
6、规划，研究预计到2013年底，仓库空置率将保持在20%左右。未来大量的供应量会给市场带来激烈的竞争，以及影响物流物业的投资收益回报率。成都物流市场仍然处于发展初期，绝大部分的租户对价格相当敏感，从仓库贮存迈向更高价值的物流操作技术应用这一观念的转变需要一段时间。鉴于成都市场有较多竞争对手，目前的项目会因为高价租金削弱其竞争力。成都航空港物流园区的配套设置依然不完善，例如通往城区的交通，餐饮和住宿，其建成时间需要2-3年。预计主项目的租金自2009年到2011年将会保持平稳。随着市场逐渐成熟、项目所在范围的基础设施和配套设施逐渐完善，项目租金在2012年会有一定增幅。预计项目投入使用后的2-3年
7、内达到较高的租用率。关键词：成都航空物流园、租金、供应量、空置率AbstractChengdus GDP, retail sales, FDI and cargo volume has always maintained stable growth rate in past decade. Meanwhile, the global financial crisis did impact Chengdu industry as the annual growth shrank. Starting form 4Q08 right after the crisis broke out, the g
8、rowth rate cut down influenced by lessening demand from both domestic and overseas; however, the growth has been positive all along. Chengdus logistics facilities investment markets started to develop from 2005. Following the governments planning to develop Chengdu as the logistics centre in Western
9、 China, a number of new supplies completed in the newly developed logistics parks or centers in recent years. As the logistics market develops, the old logistics and warehousing facilities could no longer meet the requirements of the modern logistics industry and the demands for high-quality logisti
10、cs properties are increasing. While the challenging economic environment still plays a large role in business decisions, many companies continue to look for ways to consolidate distribution networks from inefficient, moving from older facilities into newer distribution centers to increase efficienci
11、es.The subject project, situated within Chengdu Aviation Logistics Park in the southwest of Chengdu, is one of key logistics parks planned by the Chengdu government. The site has good accessibility to both city centre and surrounding districts and counties as it is near well-developed transportation
12、 network comprising of highways, expressways and air transportation. The rental level of Class A warehouses ranges from RMB 17-24 per sqm per month depending on different locations while that for Class B is about RMB 11-16 sqm per month. From 2006 to 2008, the average rent experienced an annual grow
13、th rate of 4.8% to RMB 17.22 per sqm per month. Up to 3Q2009, the rent increased by 8.3% to RMB 19.51/sqm/month.The great increase is attributed by the strong demand from logistics service stations and Chengdu Aviation Logistics Park. Despite the large supply in future, we conservatively expect that
14、 the rent will still increase by 3% y-o-y, which is driven by the completion of high-quality warehouse facilities, increase of land price, construction cost and the demand from relocation (from East Railway Station), upgrading (for time-efficiency logistics facilities) and new-setup (for high-qualit
15、y logistics facilities). From 2007 to 2008, the vacancy rate averaged at 14% but increase to 26% as of 3Q2009. There is no distinct difference between Class A and Class B regarding to the vacancy number. With the completion of four projects in 4Q09, we expect by end-2009, the vacancy rate will soar to 47%. Based on assumption from historical data and demand projection, we estimate the vacancy rate will stay at 20% by end 2013.There are large supplies in the future, which will bring competition and affect the future investment yield of logistic properties.Chengdus log
