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1、外文资料翻译Why the Mindset Matters More Than the Model.Peter BernsteinForecasting used to be straightforward. Over the years, by the end of the first quarter, managers usually had a fairly reliable sense of how the business was shaping up and whether targets would be met, missed or exceeded. Confidence i
2、n quarterly and annual predictions was so high that coming in above or below by even the smallest amount was considered a surprise and set off moves in stock prices. This year, however, things have changed. Companies like Unilever, Union Pacific and Visteon are declining to make any predictions at a
3、ll for their performance over the months ahead. In other words, all bets are off.According to company reports, the problem is not that these firms are reluctant to provide a gloomy outlook. Instead, the companies say they just dont know which way the markets will go; it seems the global economy is s
4、o shaky that executives have little confidence in their projections. This means that more and more managers are growing unwilling, at least temporarily, to make judgments about the future and then to act on those beliefs. The danger is that these businesses will become paralyzed - and by extension,
5、the global economy as well. The fundamental issue, of course, is understanding and managing risk. Any time a merger is considered, a new product concept funded or an investment made, success is never guaranteed. Over the years, business has become increasingly sophisticated in developing tools that
6、can help in this analysis, especially in financial matters. Complex mathematical models were created to analyze potential outcomes and probabilities, based on past performance. Yet, as has been widely reported in the media, many of these same models failed spectacularly to predict or prepare compani
7、es for the current global economic crisis, and major efforts are underway on Wall Street to fix these systems. At the same time, experts at Wharton and elsewhere argue that too much blame is being placed on the risk management model and other tools of the trade, in banking and beyond. The models are
8、 not necessarily broken, but instead are only as good as the decisions that get made based on them, they say. As a result, the current crisis may represent an opportunity for companies to re-visit and re-think historical approaches to risk management. When it comes to planning for the future, the ne
9、w thinking goes, it is not just the model that matters, it is the mindset. I think weve learned a lot recently about the limitations of models, says Richard J. Herring, a professor of international banking and co-director of the Wharton Financial Institutions Center. Weve also seen that the governan
10、ce of risk is not as good as it ought to be. Herring notes that top managers in many companies need to understand what can happen when the assumptions that drive a model change, and then subsequently communicate these scenarios to their boards. Internal audit risks include the inherent risks and con
11、trol risks. The inherent risks is the assumption that has nothing to do with internal accounting controls, the units being audited financial statements and the overall balance of the account of a business or the possibility of a major error, that is caused by the audit unit economic characteristics
12、of business and accounting work itself the formation of the lack of audit risk. Some enterprises such as the lack of due attention to the accounting system, account system complex, reducing clarity of accounting information, reports, use of difficulty, cost, cost of lack of cost accounting concepts.
13、 Control risk refers to as a result of inadequate internal control system perfect, weak internal control behavior, not timely detection and correction of a business account or a major error in the formation of audit risk. Sometimes, even if the auditors audited units to confirm the internal control
14、system is unreasonable or out of control in key areas, the amendments proposed by the audit can really suitable for operating activities, but will also create a risk amendment.Re-defining RiskThe first step is to get a fuller picture of risk. Most recent coverage of the global economic crisis and it
15、s origins, particularly from a risk perspective, has focused on the financial industry; the problems with identifying and measuring the risk in this sector kicked off the chain of events that brought the global economy to a near standstill. Some banks were dramatically more exposed to risks than the
16、y thought they were. Most others simply did not know; they could not assess with any confidence the value of their own or others financial assets.But there is more than one kind of risk. U.S. food giant Cargill, for example, earlier this month suffered a blow related to what is typically called sovereign risk. Accusing the company of having failed to lower food prices, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez stunned Cargill by ordering the seizure of one of its rice pl
