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1、贸易开放度与经济增长：是出口导向型的增长还是进口导向型的增长外文翻译 本科毕业论文外文翻译原文外文题目:Trade openness and economic growth: is growth export-led or import-led出 处:Applied Economics2021, 40, 161?173 作 者:Titus O. Awokuse 原文:Trade openness and economic growth: is growth export-led or import-led? Most previous investigations have only focu
2、sed on the effect of export expansion on economic growth while ignoring the potential growth-enhancing contribution of imports. This article re-examines the relationship between trade and economic growth in Argentina, Colombia, and Peru with emphasis on both the role of exports and imports. Granger
3、causality tests and impulse response functions were used to examine whether growth in trade stimulate economic growth or vice versa. The results suggest that the singular focus of past studies on exports as the engine of growth may be misleading. Although there is some empirical evidence supporting
4、export-led growth, the empirical support for import-led growth hypothesis is relatively stronger. In some cases, there is also evidence for reverse causality from gross domestic product growth to exports and importsI. Introduction The potential benefit of outward-oriented trade policy for economic g
5、rowth has been the subject of many empirical investigations. Although several studies have demonstrated the theoretical economic relationship between trade and economic growth, disagreements still persists regarding the causal direction and magnitude of the effects Bhagwati, 1978; Edwards, 1998. The
6、 vast majority of this literature focuses on the causal effect of export on economic growth. The main question in the exportled- growth debate is whether an export-driven outward orienting trade policy is preferable to an inward orienting trade policy in stimulating economic growth. Some researchers
7、 argue that causality flows from exports to economic growth and denotes this as the export-led growth ELG hypothesis. The reverse causal flow from economic growth to exports is termed growth-led exports GLE. The third alternative is that of import-led growth ILG which suggests that economic growth c
8、ould be driven primarily by growth in imports Despite the potentially important role of imports and import competition, relatively little attention has been devoted to the causal relationship between imports and economic growth. Most studies on the effect of trade openness on growth have primarily f
9、ocused on the role of exports and have mostly ignored the contribution of imports. However, some recent studies have shown that without controlling for imports, any observed causal link between exports and economic growth may be spurious and thus misleading Esfahani, 1991; Riezman et al., 1996; Than
10、gavelu and Rajaguru, 2004. Imports may be very important to economic growth since significant export growth is usually associated with rapid import growth. Furthermore, the export-growth analyses that exclude imports may be subject to the classic omitted variable problem. The fundamental causal rela
11、tionship may actually be between imports and economic growth Although numerous empirical studies have investigated the role of exports in economic growth, they largely focused on Asian economies, with few studies including Latin America countries. Earlier in their economic development paths, many La
12、tin American economies mostly followed protectionist trade policies emphasizing the importsubstitution industrialization strategy. The current prevailing view among most development economists is that the import-substitution approach is detrimental to economic growth as it inherently fosters product
13、ion inefficiencies and encourages rent-seeking behaviour. In recent years, many Latin American countries have experienced major macroeconomic and trade policy reforms with emphasis on market liberalization and trade openness. The few existing empirical investigations of the effect of openness on gro
14、wth in this region have produced mixed and inconclusive results Riezman et al., 1996; Xu, 1996; Bahmani-Oskooee and Niroomand, 1999; Richards, 2001 This study investigates the causal relationship between trade and economic growth for three Latin American economies Argentina, Colombia and Peru within
15、 an integrated framework that explores the role of both exports and imports. This study makes contributions to the literature in several ways. First, in contrast to most previous studies of the ELG hypothesis, this study extends the traditional neoclassical growth model by estimating an augmented pr
16、oduction function that explicitly tests for the effect of both exports and imports on economic growth. Real exports and imports are included as two of the endogenous variables in the cointegrated vector autoregression VAR model. This modelling framework also makes it possible to test for both the ELG and ILG hypotheses for these Latin American economies. Second, the article also adopts recent advances in time series modelling by specifying causal m
