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1、Australian Human Rights CommissionInquiry into the treatment of individuals suspected of people smuggling offences who say they are childrenSubmission by Tim J Cole PhD ScD FMedSciProfessor of Medical Statistics MRC Centre of Epidemiology for Child Health, Institute of Child Health, University Colle
2、ge London, UKEmailIntroductionDuring the latter half of 2011 I was asked to give evidence in eight age assessment hearings in Australian courts, involving a total of 11 Indonesian fishermen charged with people smuggling who said they were under 18 years old when arrested. The cases came from Brisban
3、e, Melbourne, Perth and Sydney. For each case I was asked to write an expert report giving my views on the statistical basis for the prosecution expert witness names evidence about bone age assessed using the Greulich-Pyle hand-wrist x-ray Atlas. In two of the cases I also gave oral evidence by vide
4、olink or telephone. Nine of the 11 cases were subsequently withdrawn by the prosecution. I was asked but declined to give evidence in two other cases, for reasons explained later.The names of the 11 cases are as follows, in the order that their solicitors contacted me: name, name & name, name & name
5、 & *name, name, *name, name, name and name. All the cases except the two asterisked were subsequently withdrawn by the prosecution.This submission is in four parts. It starts with the expert report that I wrote on names case, which is broadly similar to my other reports. Name used the Greulich-Pyle
6、Atlas to claim that a male with a mature hand-wrist x-ray has only a 22% chance of being under 18. My report shows that this is wrong, and that a more appropriate figure is a 61% chance of their x-ray having been mature before age 18. The difference was due to name claiming age 19 as the mean age fo
7、r a mature x-ray, whereas I argue that what matters is the age of attainment of the mature x-ray, which occurs earlier at 17.6 years.Secondly, I extend the statistical argument to consider how informative bone age is for judging whether an individual is under 18. It turns out that the amount of info
8、rmation it contains depends on the age claimed by the individual (as opposed to their simply being under 18). In some circumstances bone age is informative but usually it is not. The issue here is the size of the standard deviation (SD) of the difference between bone age and chronological age, which
9、 is 15 months or more. So the confidence interval around the chronological age estimated from bone age is 30 months (i.e. 2 SDs), a range of 5 years. This lack of precision impacts on the value of bone age as evidence, and renders it uninformative except in extreme cases.Thirdly, I show how these ar
10、guments extend to the use of dental age based on third molars (wisdom teeth), and that in general dental age is as uninformative as bone age for estimating chronological age. 1. Expert Report in the case of accusedEXPERT CERTIFICATEIn the matter of: CDPP v accusedName: Professor Tim COLEWork Address
11、: MRC Centre of Epidemiology for Child Health, UCL Institute of Child Health, University College London, 30 Guilford Street, London WC1N 1EH, UKWork Telephone: PhoneOccupation: Professor of medical statisticsSTATES:1. This statement made by me accurately sets out the evidence that I would be prepare
12、d, if necessary, to give in court as a witness. This statement is true to the best of my knowledge and belief and I make it knowing that, if it is tendered in evidence, I will be liable to prosecution if I have wilfully stated in it anything that I know to be false, or do not believe to be true.2. I
13、 acknowledge that I have read the Expert Witness Code 44A; Victoria and I agree to be bound by the Code.3. I was supplied with the following documentation to assist with my report:a. Report of name, dated 14 December 2010b. Report of name, dated 27 April 2011c. Expert report of name, dated 27 April
14、2011d. Expert report of name, dated 3 August 2011 e. Transcript of evidence of name. Dated 31 August 20114. I am 64 years of age date of birth.5. I hereby certify that I am a professor of medical statistics. I have a specialised knowledge based on the following training, study and experience as a me
15、dical statistician for the past 40 years. I hold the following qualifications: MA BPhil PhD ScD FMedSci6. In addition to my expertise as a medical statistician, I also have considerable knowledge and experience in the application of statistics to human growth and development, which has been my main
16、research focus for the past 30 years. As evidence of this I attach a list of my 381 peer-reviewed research papers since 1970, of which the great majority relate to aspects of growth. In addition, in 2006 the British Royal College of Paediatrics and Child Health bestowed on me the title of Honorary Fellow, for services to growth assessment in paediatrics. 7. I have been engaged by nam
