政府担保下基础设施PPP项目价值的研究

同济大学经济与管理学院 硕士学位论文 政府担保下基础设施PPP项目价值的研究 姓名：陈海艺 申请学位级别：硕士 专业：管理科学与工程 指导教师：关贤军 20090101 摘要 ABSTRACT p r o j ec t5Snet pres entva lue, b u t a 1 sorealoptionsval Inf rastructurei sthefoundat i o n o f n a t i o n a 1 economy, SOi t Sanimportantmethod toexpandef f e t i vedemands a n d f u e 1 e c o n o m i c g r o w t h . PPP (Pub 1 i c — P r i vat e 一 P a r t :n i e r S h i P S ) i n f r a s t r 1_ I C t U r e P r o j e( t s a r e wilt 1 1 y u s e d i t n a t k h e e s :w( a n D i r m 1 P d 0 f r 0 t r a ■ t n :h( t p a S r e t y e n a i r n s f ；. r a I s t t r u c t u r e P r 0 j e c t s and c h a n g e S t h e 0 1 d P a R e r n 0 f g 0 V e r n m e n t i n V e s t m e n t a n d c 0 n s t r u c t i H 0 0 n w 't 0 e s t a b 1 i s h r i s k - -s h a r i n g m e c h a n i S IT i b e t w e e n h o s t g 0 V e r n m l e n t a n d P r i V a t e i n V e s t 0 r i s t h e c 0 r e c 0 n t e n t i n t h e P P P i n f r a s t r u c t u rep r 0 j e c t s G 0 V e r n m e n t g u a r a n t e e P r 0 V j s i 0 n s a r e j n d i s P e n s a b 1 e e 1 e m e n t s i n t h e PPP'S c o n t r a c t n e y d a u f t f i e e c s t a t m h 0 e n r g i t g h h e t P s a a r n t d i c i P a n t s . T h e y P r o V i d e t h e i n V e s t 0 r s : m u c h f 1 e X i b i 1 i t y a n d a 1 s 0 c h a n g e t h e c a s h f 1 0 w 0 f P r 0 j e c t i n t h e f u t u r e d i r e c t 1 y o r i n d i r e c t c 1 0 y n s S i 0 d w e e r m t u h s e t. r i n f 1 u e n c e s t 0 t h e V a 1 u e o f P P P P r 0 j e c t s i n t h e f e a s i b i 1 i t y s t u d y T h i s t h e s i s i n t r 0 d u c e s t h e 0 r e t i c a 1 P r i n c i P 1 e o f P P P P r 0 j e c t f i n a n c e a n d i t s a c t u a 1 0 P e r a t i 0 n I t s u mm a r i z e s t h e m a i n t r a d i t i 0 n a 1 m e t h o d s 0 f V a 1 u a t i 0 n : a n d P 0 i n t 0 u t r e a 1 0 P t i 0 n s t h e 0 r y c a n 0 V e r c 0 m e t h e i r s h 0 r t c 0 m i n g s .T h ere a 1 0 P t i 0 n t( s )a a p P p : P r a r 0 s a e c t h h e i V s a 1 b u e e t o i t r s e t r r a t :e g y i i d j u s t a b i 1 i t y : and m a i i a g e i n e ! n t f 1 .e x i b i i i t J r . A < :c 0 ding t o T r i g e o r g i s'Sthoughtof s t rategicNPV, P P P p r o j ect'Sva 1 u e c o n t a insnotonlythe U a e u 1 a i n a el d y i z n e st forv 0 e 1 nm eVt T g h u e a r a n t e e 'Snatureof o p t i o n i n P P P p r o j e c t s T h e f 1 o a t i n S r a t e 0 f r e t urn 0 n i n v e s t m e n t g i v e stheinvesto r h o 1 d i n g p u t o p t i o n a n d m e anti m e s e 1 1 i n g c a 1 1 0 P t i o n . T h e n t h e a u t h o r a p p 1 i e s B 1 a c k一S c h 0 1 e s 0 P t i 0 n P r i c i n g M 0 d e 1 i n v a 1 u a t i i n g g o V e r n m e n t guarantee. Basedonthea thisthesisa n a 1 y s i sof theva 1 ueof gove rnmentgua rantee s, t t e m p t s t o b u i IdamorecompleteassessmentprocedureforthevalueofPPPproj e c t s, a n d t o a s s e s s t h e v a .1 u e ;o f t h e c a s e . The author use MS E x c e 1 t o r e a 1 i zeMonteCarlo s i m u 1 a t i o n f 0 r c a S h f 1 0 W 0 f P r o j e c t , t h a t improves re 1 i a b i 1 i t y 0 f NPV f 0 r e c a s t , a n d t h e n e v a 1 u a t e real o p t i o n 0 f gove r n m e n tguarantee.Thi s r e s u 1 t i s close r t 0 a c t u a 1 t 0 t a 1 V a 1 u e o f p p P P r o j e c t . a P P I 1 r n y a t i h e n g s e f i n a 1 i t e y c n t g t f h e P t r o b 1 r s e m s t h a