国际能源署-净零过渡期的煤炭（英）-2022.11-224正式版

World Energy Outlook Special ReportCoal in Net ZeroTransitionsStrategies for rapid,secure and people-centred changeThe IEA examines the full spectrum of energy issues including oil,gas and coal supply and demand,renewable energy technologies,electricity markets,energy efficiency,access to energy,demand side management and much more.Through its work,the IEA advocates policies that will enhance the reliability,affordability and sustainability of energy in its 31 member countries,11 association countries and beyond.This publication and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory,to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory,city or area.Source:IEA.International Energy Agency Website:www.iea.orgIEA member countries:Australia Austria Belgium CanadaCzech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland ItalyJapanKorea Lithuania Luxembourg Mexico Netherlands New Zealand Norway Poland Portugal Slovak Republic Spain Sweden Switzerland Republic of TrkiyeUnited Kingdom United StatesThe European Commission also participates in the work of the IEAIEA association countries:INTERNATIONAL ENERGYAGENCYArgentinaBrazilChinaEgyptIndiaIndonesiaMoroccoSingaporeSouth AfricaThailandUkraineForeword 3ForewordAstheenergysectorssinglelargestsourceofcarbondioxideemissions,coalisattheheartoftheglobalconversationonenergyandclimate.AllscenariosmodelledbytheInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA)forthefutureofenergysupplyanddemandthatareconsistentwithinternationalclimategoalsfeaturearapiddeclineinglobalcoalemissions.Withoutsuchadecline,itwillbeimpossibletoavoidsevereimpactsfromachangingclimate.AsournewanalysisinthisWorldEnergyOutlookSpecialReportmakesclear,morethan95%oftodaysglobalcoalconsumptionoccursincountriesthathavepledgedtoachievenetzeroemissions.Atthesametime,however,thedatashowthattheworldisfarfromheadingdecisivelyinthatdirection.Globalcoaluseandemissionshaveessentiallyplateauedatahighlevel,withnodefinitivesignsofanimminentreduction.Infact,coaluseinsomecountrieshasseenamodestuptickasaresultofthecurrentglobalenergycrisis.Evenifthisistemporary,asouranalysissuggests,itisaworryingsignofhowfarofftracktheworldisinits efforts to put emissions into decline towards net zero especially the narrowbutachievablegoalofdoingsoby2050.The current situation in energy markets underscores the huge challenges of reducingemissionswhilemaintainingenergysecurity.Renewableenergyoptionssuchassolarandwindarethemostcosteffectivenewsourcesofelectricitygenerationinmostmarkets,butdespitetheirimpressivelyrapidgrowthinrecentyears,theyhavenotyetbroughtaboutadeclineincoalsglobalemissions.Reducingglobalcoalemissionswhileensuringreliableandaffordableenergysuppliesandtacklingthesocialconsequencesofthischangewillrequireadedicatedanddeterminedpolicyeffortbygovernments.Multiplechallengesremain.Inmanycountries,thewayinwhichmarketsandcontractshavebeendesignedmeanthatcoalplants are effectively shielded from competition.In the industrial sector,acceleratedinnovationiscrucialtobringtomarketthetechnologiesneededtodrivedowncoalemissionsinkeyareassuchassteelandcement.Buildingupcleanenergyassetstoreplacecoalisabsolutelyessentialtoreachenvironmentalgoalsandsupporteconomicgrowthwhilesafeguardingenergysecurity.Atthesametime,carefullydesignedpoliciesandgovernmentcoordinationwithotherstakeholderssuchasindustryandlabourorganisationsarefundamentaltoenableworkersandcommunitiestoadjusttochangesaffectingthecoalindustry,whichhasdeeplinkstojobsandeconomicdevelopment in coalproducing regions.These challenges are especially significant indeveloping economies where electricity demand is growing rapidly,coal is often theincumbentfuelforelectricitygeneration,andindustrialusesofcoalareontherise.Thisisoneofthereasonswhy,iftheinternationalcommunityfailstomanagecoaltransitionsappropriately,Iseearealriskoffracturesemergingbetweensomeadvancedanddevelopingeconomies,which could lead to damaging geopolitical rifts globally.There are someencouragingsignsofinternationalcollaborationinthediscussionsonJustEnergyTransitionPartnershipswithSouthAfrica,Indonesiaandothermajoremergingeconomies.Buttheresmuch more to be done to match funding with needs and to make progress onimplementation.IEA.CC BY 4.0.4 World Energy Outlook|Special Report ThisSpecialReportisdesignedtoprovidepragmatic,realworldguidanceonhowpolicymakerscanachieveareductionincoalemissionswithoutharmingtheireconomiesorenergysecurity.Itsanalysiscoversarangeofpolicyandtechnologyareas,includingthepotentialfor carbon capture,utilisation and storage.And it offers recommendations to improvefinancingforthephasingdownofcoalandtoaddressthesocialandemploymentaspectsofthistransition.Thereportmakesitclearthatthereisnoonesingleapproachtoputtingcoalemissionsintodeclinebutarangeofapproachestailoredtonationalcircumstances.The report benefitted not only from the IEAs unparalleled energy data and modellingcapabilitiesbutalsotheinputofaHighLevelAdvisoryGroupo