OECD-世界经济展望报告200

OECD Economic OutlookNovember 2022OECD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK112NOVEMBER 2022PRELIMINARY VERSIONThis document,as well as any data and map included herein,are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory,to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory,city or area.The statistical data for Israel are supplied by and under the responsibility of the relevant Israeli authorities.The use of such data by the OECD is without prejudice to the status of the Golan Heights,East Jerusalem and Israeli settlements in the West Bank under the terms of international law.Note by the Republic of TrkiyeThe information in this document with reference to“Cyprus”relates to the southern part of the Island.There is no single authority representing both Turkish and Greek Cypriot people on the Island.Trkiye recognises the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus(TRNC).Until a lasting and equitable solution is found within the context of the United Nations,Trkiye shall preserve its position concerning the“Cyprus issue”.Note by all the European Union Member States of the OECD and the European UnionThe Republic of Cyprus is recognised by all members of the United Nations with the exception of Trkiye.The information in this document relates to the area under the effective control of the Government of the Republic of Cyprus.Please cite this publication as:OECD(2022),OECD Economic Outlook,Volume 2022 Issue 2:Preliminary version,No.112,OECD Publishing,Paris,https:/doi.org/10.1787/f6da2159-en.ISBN 978-92-64-90931-1(print)ISBN 978-92-64-96461-7(pdf)ISBN 978-92-64-69005-9(HTML)ISBN 978-92-64-39703-3(epub)OECD Economic Outlook ISSN 0474-5574(print)ISSN 1609-7408(online)Photo credits:Cover Karabin/S.Corrigenda to publications may be found on line at:www.oecd.org/about/publishing/corrigenda.htm.OECD 2022The use of this work,whether digital or print,is governed by the Terms and Conditions to be found at https:/www.oecd.org/termsandconditions.3OECD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK,VOLUME 2022 ISSUE 2:PRELIMINARY VERSION OECD 2022Table of contentsAcknowledgementsEditorial Confronting the Crisis1 General assessment of the macroeconomic situationIntroductionGrowth is slowing and financial conditions have tightenedGlobal growth is projected to weaken further with inflation slowing gradually Key risks and vulnerabilitiesPolicy requirementsBibliographyAnnex 1.A.Policy and other assumptions underlying the projections7913131529334764672 Developments in individual OECD and selected non-member economiesArgentina Australia Austria Belgium Brazil Bulgaria Canada Chile China Colombia Costa Rica CroatiaCzech RepublicDenmark Estonia Euro area Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Iceland India Indonesia Ireland697073767982868993961001031061091121151181221251291331361391421461504 Israel153Italy156Japan160Korea164Latvia167Lithuania170Luxembourg173Mexico176Netherlands179New Zealand182Norway185Peru188Poland191Portugal194Romania197Slovak Republic200Slovenia203South Africa206Spain209Sweden212Switzerland215Trkiye218United Kingdom221United States225OECD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK,VOLUME 2022 ISSUE 2:PRELIMINARY VERSION OECD 20221617182021212223242425262727282930333536373939FIGURESFigure 1.1.A variety of high-frequency indicators point to a slowdown Figure 1.2.Commodity prices have diverged recentlyFigure 1.3.Retail energy prices have increased much less than wholesale prices,especially in Europe Figure 1.4.Contributions of supply-and demand-driven inflation to headline inflation in selected OECD economiesFigure 1.5.Some factors pushing up inflation prior to the war are now subsiding Figure 1.6.Inflation has become increasingly broad-basedFigure 1.7.Short-term inflation expectations have risen in many economies Figure 1.8.Labour markets are tightFigure 1.9.Real wages are declining in most economiesFigure 1.10.Unemployment and inactivity rates have fallen in most OECD economies Figure 1.11.Global supply chain pressures have eased but new export orders are decliningFigure 1.12.Terms-of-trade losses have hit incomes in energy importing economies,especially in Europe Figure 1.13.Financial market volatility has increasedFigure 1.14.Real long-term interest rates have risen sharply in many countries Figure 1.15.Financial market conditions have tightened significantlyFigure 1.16.Corporate bond yields have risen sharplyFigure 1.17.Global growth is projected to slow and be increasingly imbalanced across regions Figure 1.18.Current account imbalances are higher than immediately prior to the pandemic Figure 1.19.Periods of high energy expenditures are often associated with a recessionFigure 1.20.Gas is an important energy source for electricity generation in many European countriesFigure 1.21.Prolonged gas shortages and greater uncertainty would hit growth and raise inflation in 2023 and 2024Figure 1.22.Debt service obligations could surgeFigure 1.23.Variable-rate mortgages can exacerbate financial risksFigure 1.24.Amidst high and volatile sovereign c