兰德-数字基础设施和数字存在-评估对未来军事竞争和冲突影响的框架（英）110

JULIA BRACKUP,SARAH HARTING,DANIEL GONZALESDigital Infrastructure and Digital PresenceA Framework for Assessing the Impact on Future Military Competition and ConflictC O R P O R A T I O NResearch ReportFor more information on this publication,visit www.rand.org/t/RRA877-1.About RANDThe RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure,healthier and more prosperous.RAND is nonprofit,nonpartisan,and committed to the public interest.To learn more about RAND,visit www.rand.org.Research IntegrityOur mission to help improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis is enabled through our core values of quality and objectivity and our unwavering commitment to the highest level of integrity and ethical behavior.To help ensure our research and analysis are rigorous,objective,and nonpartisan,we subject our research publications to a robust and exacting quality-assurance process;avoid both the appearance and reality of financial and other conflicts of interest through staff training,project screening,and a policy of mandatory disclosure;and pursue transparency in our research engagements through our commitment to the open publication of our research findings and recommendations,disclosure of the source of funding of published research,and policies to ensure intellectual independence.For more information,visit www.rand.org/about/research-integrity.RANDs publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.Published by the RAND Corporation,Santa Monica,Calif.2022 RAND Corporationis a registered trademark.Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication.ISBN:978-1-9774-0812-9Cover design by Rick Penn-Kraus.Cover images:Map:ips/Adobe Stock.Satellites:The Noun ProjectLimited Print and Electronic Distribution RightsThis publication and trademark(s)contained herein are protected by law.This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only.Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited;linking directly to its webpage on rand.org is encouraged.Permission is required from RAND to reproduce,or reuse in another form,any of its research products for commercial purposes.For information on reprint and reuse permissions,please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions.3About This ReportA U.S.-China strategic competition is underway that will be shaped by broad economic,diplomatic,information,and military trends.Networks,cyber,space activities,and the supporting digital infrastructure play a role in this competition given the advantages they can provide.Digital dual-use technologiesoften commercially developed and operatedcan serve as a force multiplier for military posture and presence and create key intel-ligence advantages.This report summarizes a RAND Corporation research project that characterizes the digital infrastructure and digital presence and develops a way to assess the implications of each for near-peer competition and future conflict.This report may be of interest to practitioners,policymakers,and tech-nologists in the U.S.Department of Defense and Intelligence Community interested in understanding how digital technologies have changedand will continue to changecompetition and conflict between major powers.The research reported here was completed in October 2021 and under-went security review with the sponsor and the Defense Office of Prepublica-tion and Security Review before public release.RAND National Security Research DivisionThis research was sponsored by the U.S.Department of Defense and con-ducted within the Acquisition and Technology Policy Center of the RAND National Security Research Division(NSRD),which operates the National Defense Research Institute(NDRI),a federally funded research and devel-opment center sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense,the Joint Staff,the Unified Combatant Commands,the Navy,the Marine Corps,the defense agencies,and the defense intelligence enterprise.For more information on the RAND Acquisition and Technology Policy Center,see www.rand.org/nsrd/atp or contact the director(contact infor-mation is provided on the webpage).Digital Infrastructure and Digital Presence4AcknowledgmentsWe thank our management team within RANDJoel Predd,Yun Kang,and Caitlin Leefor their guidance and encouragement.The analysis con-tained in this report also benefited from the insights and expertise of sev-eral of our research colleaguesChad Ohlandt,Steven Popper,Michael Kennedy,and Christopher Moutonthroughout this effort.We also thank Scott W.Harold and Marjory S.Blumenthal for their careful and thought-ful reviews of the manuscript.Our report is much improved because of their comments.Finally,we thank Silas Dustin for assisting with the preparation of the draft.The authors alone are responsible for any errors remaining in this report.5SummaryInformation