2021年商品市场展望--英文

A World Bank ReportAPRIL 2021CommodityMarketsOutlookCauses and Consequencesof Metal Price ShocksSCAApr瞬网U01幽司柒羯蒯那AWbrid Bank即曾於APRIL 2021CommodityMarketsOutlookWORLD BANKGROUP 2021 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank1818 H Street NW,Washington,DC 20433Telephone:202-473-1000;Internet:www.worldbank.orgSome rights reserved.This work is a product of the staff of the World Bank with external contributions.The findings,interpretations,andconclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank,its Board of ExecutiveDirectors,or the governments they represent.The maps were produced by the Map Design Unit of the World Bank.The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work.The boundaries,colors,denominations,and other information shown on these maps do not imply,on the part of the World Bank Group,anyjudgment on the legal status of any territory,or any endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries.Nothing herein shall constitute or be considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of the privileges and immunities ofthe World Bank,all of which are specifically reserved.Rights and PermissionsAttributionPlease cite the work as follows:World Bank Group.2021.Commodity Markets Outlook:Causes andConsequences of Metal Price Shocks,April 2021.World Bank,Washington,DC.License:Creative CommonsAttribution CC BY 3.0 IGO.TranslationsIf you create a translation of this work,please add the following disclaimer along with the attribution:This translation was not created by the World Bank and should not be considered an offidal World Bank translation.The World Bank shall not be liable for any content or error in this translation.AdaptationsIf you create an adaptation of this work,please add the following disclaimer along with the attribution:This is an adaptation of an original work by the World Bank.Views and opinions expressed in the adaptation are thesole responsibility of the author or authors of the adaptation and are not endorsed by the World Bank.Third-party contentThe World Bank does not necessarily own each component of the content contained withinthe work.The World Bank therefore does not warrant that the use of any third-party-owned individual component orpart contained in the work will not infringe on the rights of those third parties.The risk of claims resulting from suchinfringement rests solely with you.If you wish to re-use a component of the work,it is your responsibility todetermine whether permission is needed for that re-use and to obtain permission from the copyright owner.Examplesof components can include,but are not limited to,tables,figures,or images.All queries on rights and licenses should be addressed to the Publishing and Knowledge Division,World Bank,1818H Street NW,Washington,DC 20433,USA;fax:202-522-2625;e-mail:pubrightsworldbank.org.The cutoff date for the data used in this report was April 16,2021.Table of ContentsAcknowledgments.vExecutive Summary.1Special Focus:Causes and consequences of metal price shocks.5Commodity Market Developments and Outlook.21Energy.23Agriculture.29Fertilizers.34Metals and Minerals.35Precious Metals.37Appendix A:Historical commodity prices and price forecasts.39Appendix B:Supply-Demand balances.47Appendix C:Description of price and technical notes.79Figures Figure 1 Commodity market developments.2Figure SF.l Oil and metals prices.7Figure SF.2 The importance of energy and metals.8Figure SF.3 Market concentration of metal reserves,production,and consumption.10Figure SF.4 Chinas impact on metal markets.11Figure SF.5 Metal price shocks.13Figure SF.6 Metal price shocks to EMDE metal exporters and importers.14Figure SF.7 Copper price shocks to EMDE copper exporters and importer.15Figure 2 Oil market developments.23Figure 3 Oil supply developments.24Figure 4 Oil market outlook.25Figure 5 Natural gas and coal.27Figure 6 Agricultural price developments.29Figure 7 Supply conditions for grains and edible oils.30Figure 8 Risks to outlook.31Figure 9 Beverage commodity market developments.32Figure 10 Agricultural raw materials market developments.33Figure 11 Fertilizer market developments.34Figure 12 Metals and minerals market developments.35Figure 13 Precious metals market developments.37iiiTables Table 1 Nominal price indexes and forecast revisions.3Annex Table SF Summary of empirical research on supercycles.17Table A.l Commodity prices.41Table A.2 Commodity prices forecasts in nominal U.S.dollars.43Table A.3 Commodity prices forecasts in constant U.S.dollars(2010=100).44Table A.4 Commodity price index forecasts(2010=100).46AcknowledgmentsThis World Bank Group Report is a product of the Prospects Group in the Equitable Growth,Finance,andInstitutions(EFI)Vice Presidency.The report was managed by John Baffes under the general guidance of AyhanKose and Franziska Ohnsorge.Many people contributed to the report.AlainKabundi,Peter Nagle,and Franziska Ohnsorgeauthored the Special Focus on Causes andConsequ