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1、/VIK HSBCGlobal R 您猫舒reh17 March 2020Global Credit StrategyQ&A: where are the fault lines?Fixed IncomeCreditGlobalIn the wake of COVID-19, we expect credit spreads to continue widening in the near term We pose seven questions based on recent investor feedback. .and seek to highlight key fault lines
2、in global credit markets and what investors can do in responseFive themes.Further turbulence in Q2 and Q3 - In the near term, USD IG could widen to T+250bp-T+350bp while EUR IG ASW could reach 200bp to 300bp. For HY, spreads could reach T+900bp to T+1200bp in the US and ASW+700bp to ASW+900bp in Eur
3、ope.Liquidity risks -The recent credit market selloff has already triggered outflows from mutual funds, which if sustained, could prompt further weakness as they sell assets to meet redemptions.Fallen angel risks - The risk of BBBs being downgraded into HY remains elevated, most notably in the US. B
4、y volume of bonds, there is particular risk in Media and Oil & Gas, followed by Chemicals and Basic Resources.Refinancing risks - With issuance slowing, concerns over refinancing are rising. We think the risks are high in USD HY, especially in Industrials, Healthcare and Oil & Gas sectors.Strategy -
5、 In Asia credit, we avoid buying the dip” and clip coupons due to poor liquidity and elevated macro uncertainty. In Europe, investors could use pockets of liquidity to switch out of Travel, Autos and Commodities sectors and into Utilities, Food & Beverage, Personal Goods and Healthcare.from seven qu
6、estionsWhat are the key downside risks from mark-to-market volatility in credit markets?1. How do you expect credit markets to evolve over the near term?2. What can credit investors do in a volatile and illiquid market?3. How do the measures announced by central banks affect your views on credit?4.
7、How concerned should we be of the risk of BBBs being downgraded into HY?5. Should investors be concerned about rising refinancing risks?6. Which sectors are likely to face the sharpest deterioration in credit quality?Song Jin Lee, CFAEuropean & US Credit StrategistHSBC Bank plcsongjin.leehsbc +44 20
8、 7991 5259Dilip ShahaniHead of Global Research, Asia PacificThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited dilipshahanihsbc .hk +852 2822 4520Jonathan WhiteHead of European Credit ResearchHSBC Bank plcjonathan.whitehsbcib +44 20 7991 5195Dominic KiniEuropean Credit StrategistHSBC Bank plcdomi
9、nic.kinihsbcib +44 20 7991 5599Keith ChanHead of Corporate Credit Research, Asia PacificThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited keithkfchanhsbc .hk +852 2822 4522Louisa Lam, CFACredit Analyst, Asia PacificThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited louisa.m.c.lamhsbc .hk+852
10、2996 6586Tom RussellCredit AnalystHSBC Bank plcthomas.russellhsbc +44 20 3359 5666Steven Major, CFAGlobal Head of Fixed Income ResearchHSBC Bank plcsteven.j.majorhsbcib +44 20 7991 59802020 Institutional Investor surveyVoting opens 2nd March - 3rd April 2020If you value our service and insights, ple
11、ase voteII Research has acquired the Extel surveyClick here to voteIssuer of report: HSBC Bank plcView HSBC Global Research at: h ftps :/ research, hsbc. comDisclosures & DisclaimerThis report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the D
12、isclaimer, which forms part of it.14. CSPP contributed to a sixth of the tightening in March 2016 - January 2018o-10-20-30-40-50-60-70-80o-10-20-30-40-50-60-70-80Spread change Eurozone PMI Sovereign CDS Credit quality VIX Commodity Others* crisis reversalSource: HSBC calculations, Markit, Bloomberg
13、Includes impact of monetary easing measures such as CSPP.but can prevent further shocks from the financial system.but they can prevent it from igniting a systemic crisisHowever, what monetary policy can do is to help prevent additional stress in the financial system from affecting the real economy.
14、We believe the central banks around the world need to continue adopting whatever policies measures needed to dampen volatility in financial markets. In our view, the authorities should focus primarily on the asset management community that is having the most difficulty in obtaining liquidity at a re
15、asonable pricing.For its part, the European and American banking sectors are in a significantly stronger position compared to the run up to the last financial crisis. Therefore, we think the authorities in Europe and the US will adopt non-conventional policy measures to boost the liquidity positions of non- financial corporates via their respective banking sectors (such as TLTROs). In doing so, policy makers would aim to restore liquidity to the financial markets as well as reopen the primary issuance market, especia
