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1、FOCUSEquity Research14 September 2020INDUSTRY UPDATEU.S. CHPC & Beverages Lauren R. Lieberman +1 212 526 3112 BCIZ USU.S. FoodAndrew Lazar +1 212 526 4668 BCIZ USAmericas Agribusiness Benjamin M. Theurer +52 55 5241 3322 BBMXZ MexicoEuropean Consumer Staples Warren Ackerman+44(0)20 3134 1903 Barclay
2、s, UKlain Simpson+44 (0)20 7773 3616 Barclays, UKGaurav Jain +44(0)20 3555 2501 gaurav2, Barclays, UKLaurence Whyatt +44 (0)20 7773 5324 Barclays, UK* BARC1AYSGlobal Consumer Staples20 Conference Takeaways: Sticking To A Positive ScriptAt our conference last week, presenting companies took on an une
3、quivocally positivetone. While investors continue to view the sustainability of stronger demand across Food and HPC and the path to recovery in Beverages with a healthy degree of skepticism (especially in the absence of formal guidance for much of our coverage universe), companies did not sound any
4、alarm bells last week. To the contrary, many reiterated the positive tailwinds to their categories seen over the past six months, including a consumer preference for branded products and specifically big, familiar brands. In this vein, a particularly noteworthy theme was the strength and resilience
5、of the U.S. consumer with very little conversation around trade down to private label, and HPC and Beverage companies in particular highlighting a continued preference for premiumization and observing no signs of any wavering in consumer spend. Emerging market trends look to be improving sequentiall
6、y, but remain a point to watch.Perhaps the most pervasive reason for optimism, in our view, was the potential long-term stickiness of recent consumption trends. While this train of thought is not necessarily new to the Food space, we sensed a greater degree of conviction in this holding true, with c
7、ompanies having more data points to support this theory six months into the crisis and new consumer behaviors more likely to form into habits with each month that passes. For HPC & Beverages, on the other hand, while few had alluded to the possibility of crisis-time behaviors (shift to at-home consu
8、mption, convenience, hygiene) proving sticky in recent months, there was a much more definitive and widespread proclamation of this last week.In this vein, companies are stepping up investments to retain new households and share gains and further extend their competitive advantage. In our view, marg
9、ins will see pressure in C2H20 as a result but we like that companies are being proactive rather than simply hoping to be in the right place at the right time, In the case of Food, investments are focused on increasing capacity and stepping up advertising spend (particularly digital media) to encour
10、age repeat purchases. On the other hand, for HPC & Beverages, while stepped up A&P is certainly part of the toolkit, breakthrough innovation is also playing an important role. To this point, last week, we were struck by the breadth and depth of new products announced, intended to capture & retain ne
11、w and existing users in the categories that have seen a sustained uptick in demand. In Food, given sustained high demand for existing products, companies appear to be focused largely on getting the current portfolio on the shelf, and in some cases, have delayed innovation launches, in conjunction wi
12、th their retail partners, by six to nine months while continuing to develop innovation in the meantime - a dynamic that could aid performance in CY21 in light of tough industry comparisons.Lastly, we would be remiss to not mention other key themes which surfaced throughout the week including a push
13、towards e-commerce and a continued focus on sustainability.Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of its affiliates does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objec
14、tivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.This research report has been prepared in whole or in part by equity research analysts based outside the US who are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA.PLEASE
15、 SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATION(S) AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES BEGINNING ON PAGE 85.categories. With regards to repeat for GIS, it is higher than a year ago in 9 of its top 10 categories with repeat rates at elevated levels even for new consumers. So too would we note that GIS is growing distribution share
16、 in aggregate and across the majority of its major categories. For b&g Foods, for the 12 weeks ending July, two thirds of its brands were gaining market share with most of the remainder holding their own. So too did the company note that across its 50 brands, several are garnering up to 50% of growth through new users.With regard to changing eating habits, perhaps fitting, SJM started the conference by reminding us that nearly 9
