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1、重点公司估值和财务分析表股票简称股票代码货币最新收盘价最近报告日期评级合理价值（元/股）EPS（元）PE(x)EV/EBITDA(x)ROE(%)2020E2021E2020E2021E2020E2021E2020E2021E光线传媒300251.SZ人民币12.222020/10/28买入14.60.160.4276.3829.1070.3427.825.011.3横店影视603103.SH人民币16.102020/10/30买入19.70.520.70-23.00-11.73-16.217.8芒果超媒300413.SZ人民币78.782020/10/30买入80.391.021.2577.
2、2463.0220.3416.2017.417.9万达电影002739.SZ人民币16.232020/11/1买入18.99-0.980.76-20.25-12.24-17.211.8新媒股份300770.SZ人民币86.142020/10/28买入128.152.623.2032.8826.9226.7721.1021.821.2蓝色光标300058.SZ人民币7.012020/10/22买入9.060.300.3523.3720.0313.6512.458.08.4完美世界002624.SZ人民币28.362020/10/30买入36.21.211.4523.4419.5620.6216.
3、2418.718.3吉比特603444.SH人民币478.882020/10/23买入55015.5219.6430.8624.3819.5614.8426.725.2三七互娱002555.SZ人民币29.322020/11/1买入37.671.321.5122.2119.4219.0315.6529.931.8视源股份002841.SZ人民币103.992020/8/30买入117.582.402.9443.3335.3741.8031.3624.322.7鸿合科技002955.SZ人民币25.642020/4/24买入71.171.401.8818.3113.6412.988.8910.2
4、12.0分众传媒002027.SZ人民币9.632020/10/22买入10.840.250.3438.5228.3229.3021.3620.822.5华扬联众603825.SH人民币30.912020/6/29买入37.351.241.6524.9318.7315.8912.4714.616.2天下秀600556.SH人民币16.972020/11/1买入23.950.230.3473.7849.9164.3640.4511.915.0视觉中国000681 .SZ人民币14.962020/10/30买入21.450.260.4357.5434.7947.1329.155.78.6新经典60
5、3096.SH人民币41.202020/10/29买入63.711.812.1222.7619.4319.4716.2312.013.0中南传媒601098.SH人民币10.512020/10/30增持13.560.830.8212.6612.823.022.2210.610.2中信出版300788.SZ人民币47.752020/10/28买入53.581.371.7934.8526.6829.3920.9913.816.1中国科传601858.SH人民币10.392020/10/30买入12.970.650.7415.9814.048.636.6011.912.5凤凰传媒601928.SH人
6、民币6.992020/10/27买入8.350.530.6013.1911.653.962.959.09.5中国出版601949.SH人民币5.182020/10/30买入7.220.430.5012.0510.364.493.2810.811.7国联股份603613.SH人民币98.152019/10/25增持79.231.141.6486.1059.8555.0039.6117.219.9掌趣科技300315.SZ人民币6.452020/10/29买入7.520.230.3028.0421.5024.1314.3710.111.9世纪华通002602.SZ人民币8.132020/6/2买入
7、15.610.600.6913.5511.7812.7110.9313.113.1学阅科技603533.SH人民币27.132020/10/25买入35.010.600.8845.2230.8340.8026.0117.021.0值得买300785.SZ人民币108.102020/10/28买入147.281.912.4956.6043.4150.7439.4916.517.7猫眼娱乐01896.HK港元10.842020/8/19买入16.41-0.050.99-9.4650.319.24-3.410.0美团点评-W03690.HK港元296.002020/8/23买入309.941.113
8、.27230.3478.19335.57108.933.213.8新东方在线01797.HK港元25.702020/&30买入37.36-1.07-0.96-120.31063.2心动公司02400.HK港元37.002020/9/3买入53.520.881.3736.3223.3315.6014.0819.522.1华夏视听教育01981.HK港元4.162020/8/30买入7.120.160.2223.1116.6413.869.3810.012.6祖龙娱乐09990.HK港元17.962020/9/6买入35.390.751.4220.6810.9231.0514.3042.646.2
9、中手游00302.HK港元3.022020/9/10买入5.790.340.497.675.325.973.9516.122.0哗哩哗哩BILLO美元44.462020/5/24买入31.78-5.05-2.76-21.39-38.0-34.2爱奇艺IQ.0美元25.192020/5/20买入22.49-10.07-5.63-0.37-318.1228.5网易NTES.0美元84.332020/8/16买入553148.75187.4320.4716.2417.5414.6119.520.1趣头条QTT.0美元2.142019/9/8买入7.45-4.04-0.38-57.7-7.0有道DAO
10、.N美元26.592020/9/7买入48.53-9.93-4.32-132.035.0数据来源:Wind、&,备注:表中估值指标按照最新收盘价计算(QoQ-5.1%, YoY+70.8%),财务费用率0.78%,同比增加0.33pct。表1 ：媒板块单季度财务指标(% ,分母口径均为营业收入)和20Q3同环比变动(pct)财务指标2019Q32019Q42020Q12020Q22020Q3Q3 环比(pct)Q3 同比(pct)毛利率31.00%28.32%30.64%29.82%30.15%0.33-0.85销售费用率9.88%11.17%11.53%10.53%10.39%-0.140.
11、51管理费用率7.26%8.49%8.29%7.89%7.65%-0.230.39研发费用率2.94%3.28%3.54%3.56%3.01%-0.550.07财务费用率0.45%0.85%0.76%0.92%0.78%-0.130.33资产减值损失率-0.90%-26.74%-0.28%-1.05%-0.89%0.160.01投资收益率0.96%2.25%0.74%4.70%2.33%-2.371.38归母净利率9.80%-24.45%6.75%10.62%11.81%1.192.01数据京盛W楣ci. &.8.93%-27.70%5.52%5.10%7.85%2.76-1.0820年前三季
12、度，传媒行业经营性现金流净额为325.21亿元，同比降低15.66%,经营 性现金流净额/净利润为0.94,盈利质量明显改善，主要得益于有线电视、教育和体 育行业的显著改善。分季度看，20Q1经营性现金流净额小幅下降，20Q2同比大幅 增长136.88%至246.35亿元，20Q3下降至86.46亿元。图10 ：传媒行业经营性现金流净额(亿元)数据来源:Wind, &(三)各板块营收与利润分化加剧，互联网、广告边际向好分行业总览：2020前三季度营收同比正增长的子板块包括广告营销与游戏，其中广 告营销实现营收1048.06亿元(YOY+15.25%).游戏板块实现营收565.99亿元 (YOY+5.18%)。20Q3单季实
