《TED演讲-比尔·盖茨下次的疫情爆发我们还没准备好（双语字幕点屏幕上的词）(中英文参考学习)28》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《TED演讲-比尔·盖茨下次的疫情爆发我们还没准备好（双语字幕点屏幕上的词）(中英文参考学习)28（7页珍藏版）》请在金锄头文库上搜索。
1、【演讲人】比尔盖茨【演讲主题】下次的疫情暴发？我们还没准备好【演讲文稿-中英文】翻译者 Wang-Ju Tsai 校对 Min WangWhen I was a kid, the disaster we worried about most was a nuclear war. Thats why we had a barrel like this down in our basement, filled with cans of food and water. When the nuclear attack came, we were supposed to go downstairs, h
2、unker down, and eat out of that barrel. 当我还是小孩时, 我们最担心的灾害是核战争。 所以我们在地下室有个这样的筒子， 装满了罐头食物和水。 当核战争爆发时， 我们就要躲到地下室去， 蹲低身子并靠那个筒子维生。 00:38Today the greatest risk of global catastrophe doesnt look like this. Instead, it looks like this. If anything kills over 10 million people in the next few decades, its m
3、ost likely to be a highly infectious virus rather than a war. Not missiles, but microbes. Now, part of the reason for this is that weve invested a huge amount in nuclear deterrents. But weve actually invested very little in a system to stop an epidemic. Were not ready for the next epidemic. 今天的全球灾难最
4、大的危险 看起来已不像这样了。 事实上，会像这样。 如果有什么东西在未来几十年里 可以杀掉上千万人， 那比较有可能是个高度传染的病毒， 而不是战争。 不是导弹，而是微生物。 部分的理由是因为 我们在核威慑上投注了很大的 精力和金钱。 但是我们在防止疫情的 系统上却投资很少。 我们还没有准备好预防 下一场大疫情的发生。 01:20Lets look at Ebola. Im sure all of you read about it in the newspaper, lots of tough challenges. I followed it carefully through the ca
5、se analysis tools we use to track polio eradication. And as you look at what went on, the problem wasnt that there was a system that didnt work well enough, the problem was that we didnt have a system at all. In fact, theres some pretty obvious key missing pieces. 让我们看看埃博拉病毒。 我相信大家在报纸上 都有读到这样的新闻， 充满
6、了许多艰难的挑战。 用我们追踪消灭脊髓灰质炎（小儿麻痹）的 案例分析工具， 我仔细地追踪这病毒的发展。 随着疫情的发展我们可以看到， 问题不在于我们没有一套 可以使用的系统， 而是我们根本没有任何系统。 事实上我们可以看到有几个 很明显的不足。 01:51We didnt have a group of epidemiologists ready to go, who would have gone, seen what the disease was, seen how far it had spread. The case reports came in on paper. It was
7、very delayed before they were put online and they were extremely inaccurate. We didnt have a medical team ready to go. We didnt have a way of preparing people. Now, Mdecins Sans Frontires did a great job orchestrating volunteers. But even so, we were far slower than we should have been getting the t
8、housands of workers into these countries. And a large epidemic would require us to have hundreds of thousands of workers. There was no one there to look at treatment approaches. No one to look at the diagnostics. No one to figure out what tools should be used. As an example, we could have taken the
9、blood of survivors, processed it, and put that plasma back in people to protect them. But that was never tried. 我们找不到一群准备好了的流行病学家， 能去疫区看看病理和病情发展。 病例都是由纸上报道传来的。 信息传上线时已经很晚了， 此外还很不准确。 我们也找不到训练有素的医护小组。 我们没有一套让人们严阵以待的方法。 目前，“无国界医生” 在动员志愿者上做了很大的贡献。 但即使如此，我们调动数千名 工作者到疫区的速度 还是十分差强人意的。 大的疫情会需要我们动员 数十万的人员， 但
10、我们没有任何人在研究治疗的方向。 也没有人在看诊断的方法。 没有人在想该用什么工具。 举个例子来说， 我们也许可以抽取生还者的血液， 处理过后，再将血浆注入 人体内来保护没得病的人。 但是这个方法从来没有试过。02:54So there was a lot that was missing. And these things are really a global failure. The WHO is funded to monitor epidemics, but not to do these things I talked about. Now, in the movies its q
11、uite different. Theres a group of handsome epidemiologists ready to go, they move in, they save the day, but thats just pure Hollywood. 所以有很多事都还没来得及做。 而这的确是全球性的失败。 世界卫生组织的目的是来监视流行病， 而不是来做我刚讲的事。 但是在电影中演的剧情又是另一回事。 有一群很英俊的流行病学家准备就绪， 他们到了疫区拯救了大家， 但这是纯好莱坞的剧情。 03:22The failure to prepare could allow the n
12、ext epidemic to be dramatically more devastating than Ebola Lets look at the progression of Ebola over this year. About 10,000 people died, and nearly all were in the three West African countries. Theres three reasons why it didnt spread more. The first is that there was a lot of heroic work by the
13、health workers. They found the people and they prevented more infections. The second is the nature of the virus. Ebola does not spread through the air. And by the time youre contagious, most people are so sick that theyre bedridden. Third, it didnt get into many urban areas. And that was just luck.
14、If it had gotten into a lot more urban areas, the case numbers would have been much larger. 我们的准备不足 ， 可能会导致下一场疫情， 比埃博拉病毒的危害更严重。 让我们看看埃博拉病毒在 过去一年中的发展。 大约死了一万人， 所有的死者都在西非的三个国家里。 之所以没有扩散的原因有三个。 第一个是卫生工作人员作的 很多英雄事迹。 他们找到很多病人 并防止了更多人得病。 第二个是病毒的特性， 埃博拉病毒不是靠空气传染的。 等到你有足够的传染力时， 大部分的人已经病得卧床不起了。 第三个是因为病毒没有传到都
15、会区。 这纯粹是运气好。 如果病毒传到了都会区， 那么死亡的人数绝对不止于此。 04:18So next time, we might not be so lucky. You can have a virus where people feel well enough while theyre infectious that they get on a plane or they go to a market. The source of the virus could be a natural epidemic like Ebola, or it could be bioterrorism
16、. So there are things that would literally make things a thousand times worse. 所以下一次我们可能不会这么幸运了。 有的病毒可能让你毫无察觉， 但当感染病毒的人乘飞机或者去逛商场， 他们其实已经具有一定的传染力了。 此外病毒的来源可以是 天然的，像埃博拉病毒， 或是由生物恐怖攻击产生的。 所以可以让疫情惨上千倍的病毒是存在的。 04:40In fact, lets look at a model of a virus spread through the air, like the Spanish Flu back in 1918. So heres what would happen: It would spread throughout the world very, very quickly. And you can see ove
