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1、Measuring And Managing Investment Risk 衡量和管理投资风险by Katrina Lamb,CFA Filed Under: Financial Theory 提起下：金融理论We tend to think of risk in predominantly negative terms, as something to be avoided or a threat that we hope wont materialize. In the investment world, however, risk is inseparable from perform
2、ance and, rather than being desirable or undesirable, is simply necessary. Understanding risk is one of the most important parts of a financial education.This article will examine ways that we measure and manage risk in making investment decisions. 我们倾向于对“风险主要是负面的”，想的东西要避免或威胁，我们希望将无法实现。在投资世界，然而，风险是不
3、可分割，从性能，而不是理想或不理想，只是必要的。理解风险是一个金融教育最重要的组成部分之一。本文将探讨如何衡量和管理，我们在作出投资决定的风险。Risk- Good, Bad and Necessary 风险 - 好的，坏的和必要的A common definition for investment risk is deviation from an expected outcome. We can express this in absolute terms or relative to something else like a market benchmark.That deviatio
4、n can be positive or negative, and relates to the idea ofno pain, no gain -to achieve higher returns in the long run you have to accept more short-term volatility.How much volatility depends on your risk tolerance - an expression of the capacity to assume volatility based on specific financial circu
5、mstances and the propensity to do so, taking into account your psychological comfort with uncertainty and the possibility of incurring large short-term losses. (To learn more, read Determining Risk And The Risk Pyramid and Personalizing Risk Tolerance.)投资风险的一个共同的定义是偏离了预期的结果。我们可以表达绝对或相对的东西像其他这个市场基准。这
6、种偏差可正可负，涉及到“无痛苦的想法，一分收获” - 以实现更高的回报，长远来说你必须接受更多的短期波动。波动多少取决于你的风险承受能力 - 1表达的能力，以承担具体的财务情况和倾向，这样做的波动，同时考虑到不确定性和承受大的短期损失的可能性你的心理安慰(要了解更多信息，请参阅确定风险和风险金字塔和个性化的风险性)Absolute Measures of Risk 绝对风险的措施One of the most commonly used absolute risk metrics is standard deviation, a statistical measure of dispersio
7、n around a central tendency. For example, during a 15-year period from August 1, 1992, to July 31, 2007, the average annualized total return of the S&P 500 Stock Index was 10.7%. This number tells you what happened for the whole period, but it doesnt say what happened along the way.最常用的指标之一，是绝对风险的标准
8、差，分散围绕一个中心趋势的统计方法。例如，在从1992年8月1日15年期间，到2007年7月31日，平均按年的标准普尔500股票指数的总回报为10.7。这个数字告诉你整个期间发生的，但它没有说什么前进的道路上发生的事情。The average standard deviation of the S&P 500 for that same period was 13.5%.Statistical theory tells us that in normal distributions (the familiar bell-shaped curve) any given outcome shoul
9、d fall within one standard deviation of the mean about 67% of the time and within two standard deviations about 95% of the time. Thus, an S&P 500 investor could expect the return at any given point during this time to be 10.7% +/- 13.5% just under 70% of the time and +/- 27.0% 95% of the time. (For
10、more insight, read The Uses And Limits Of Volatility.) 平均标准普尔500指数的标准差为同一时期的13.5。统计理论告诉我们，在（熟悉的钟形曲线）任何特定的结果应该在一个正态分布的标准差平均下降约67的时间和大约95的时间在两个标准差。因此，标准普尔500指数的投资者可以指望在这段时间，在任何给定点的回报是10.7+ / - 13.5，略低于70的时间和+ / - 27.0，95的时间(如需更多了解，请阅读波动的用途和限制)Risk and Psychology 风险与心理While that information may be help
11、ful, it does not fully address an investors risk concerns. The field of behavioral finance has contributed an important element to the risk equation, demonstrating asymmetry between how people view gains and losses. In the language of prospect theory, an area of behavioral finance introduced by Amos
12、 Tversky and Daniel Kahneman in 1979, investors exhibit loss aversion- they put more weight on the pain associated with a loss than the good feeling associated with a gain. (For more on this, read Behavioral Finance: Prospect Theory.) 尽管这些信息可能是有益的，它不能完全解决投资者的风险担忧。行为金融学领域的一个重要因素促成的风险方程，展示与人们之间的收益和损失的
13、不对称性。在展望理论，是在1979年推出阿莫斯Tversky和丹尼尔卡尼曼，投资者表现出损失厌恶 - 他们放在同一个比一个增益相关的好感损失所带来的痛苦更重行为金融学领域的语言(有关此，请阅读行为金融：展望理论。)Thus, what investors really want to know is not just how much an asset deviates from its expected outcome, but how bad things look way down on the left-hand tail of the distribution curve. Valu
14、e at risk (VAR)attempts to provide an answer to this question.The idea behind VAR is to quantify how bad a loss on an investment could be with a given level of confidence over a defined period of time. For example, the following statement would be an example of VAR:With about a 95% level of confiden
15、ce, the most you stand to lose on this $1,000 investment over a two-year time horizon is $200.The confidence level is a probability statement based on the statistical characteristics of the investment and the shape of its distribution curve. (To learn more, read Introduction to Value At Risk - Part
16、1 and Part 2.)因此，投资者真正想知道的是没有多少资产背离了其预期的结果，而是如何一路看坏的东西就分布曲线的左侧尾部。在风险值（VaR）试图提供一个对这个问题的答案。 VAR的背后想法是多么坏的一个量化的投资损失可能超过了规定的时间内一定程度的信心。例如，下面的语句将是VAR的例子：“拥有约95的信心水平，你最会失去这对一个为期两年的时间跨度1000美元的投资为200元。”的信心水平是一个概率声明对投资的统计特性的基础和它的分布曲线的形状。 （要了解更多，请阅读介绍风险值 - 第1和第2部分。）Of course, even a measure like VAR doesnt guarantee that things wont be worse. Spectacular debacles like hedge fund Long Term Capital Management in 1998 remind us that so
