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1、第二章第二章 网络经济概要网络经济概要Network EconomyNetwork Economy网络经济网络经济网络经济chapter 2 network economy2 BibliographyBibliographyCarl Shapiro&Hal Varian,信息规则:网络经济的策略指导,中国人民大学出版社Soon-Yong Choi Dale O.Stahl Andrew B.Whinston，电子商务经济学，电子工业出版社John Thorp, 信息悖论:信息技术的商业利益，东北财经大学出版社克里斯.安德森,长尾理论,中信出版社托马斯弗里德曼，世界是平的，湖南科学技术出版社网络
2、经济chapter 2 network economy3Learning ObjectivesLearning Objectives一、网络时代三大定律二、网络经济的涵义与特征三、网络经济下的信息产品四、电子商务的经济特征网络经济chapter 2 network economy4一、一、 网络时代三大定律网络时代三大定律 网络经济改变了传统经济的规律，创建了新的法则。（一）摩尔定律（一）摩尔定律（MooreMoore s Laws Law）（二）梅特卡夫定律（二）梅特卡夫定律（MetcalfeMetcalfe s Laws Law）n规模报酬递增(increasing returns to
3、scale)n马太效应（Matthewss Effect）（三）吉尔德定律（三）吉尔德定律（GilderGilder s Laws Law）网络经济chapter 2 network economy5( (一一) )摩尔定律摩尔定律（MooreMoore s Laws Law） In 1965, Electronics magazine published “Cramming More Components onto Integrated Circuits.” Intel founder Gordon Moore predicted that processor densities would
4、 double every 12-18 months into the foreseeable future. This observation has been incredibly accurate over the last 40 years. We have come to refer to it as Moores Law.信息时代第一定律网络经济chapter 2 network economy6(一)摩尔定律（Moores Law） 戈登戈登 摩尔观察了从摩尔观察了从1959-19651959-1965年半导体工业的实际年半导体工业的实际数据，以数据，以19591959年数据为基
5、准，发现每隔年数据为基准，发现每隔1818个月左右，个月左右，芯片技术就大约进展一倍。芯片技术就大约进展一倍。19651965年年4 4月，摩尔发表论文月，摩尔发表论文，提出，提出“ “摩尔定律摩尔定律” ”。In commercial production since 1961, the earliest In commercial production since 1961, the earliest planar transistor showed a chip containing 25, or planar transistor showed a chip containing 25
6、, or 32 components. Moore also knew that the next 32 components. Moore also knew that the next integrated circuit still in the lab but to be unveiled integrated circuit still in the lab but to be unveiled in 1965 would contain about 2in 1965 would contain about 2(5+1)(5+1) = 2 = 26 6 = 64 = 64 compo
7、nents. Looking ten years out meant a chip components. Looking ten years out meant a chip would contain 2would contain 2(6+10)(6+10) = 2 = 21616 = 65,536 components. = 65,536 components. The log graph of this phenomenon is a straight line.The log graph of this phenomenon is a straight line.( (一一) )摩尔
8、定律摩尔定律（MooreMoore s Laws Law）网络经济chapter 2 network economy7The processing power of a microchip doubles every 18 months. Corollary: computers become faster - and the price of a given level of computing power halves - every 18 months. 计算机硅芯片的处理能力每18个月就翻一翻，而性能不变，芯片价格以减半数下降。( (一一) )摩尔定律摩尔定律（MooreMoore s
9、 Laws Law）网络经济chapter 2 network economy81970 Intel releases DRAM memory chip Intel 4004 (1971) 1MHz, 45 instructions = 2300 transistors 1972 Intel 8008 1974 Intel 8080, 2-MHz1974 Motorola 6800 1975 Zilog Z80, 1976 MOS Technologies 6502 1978 Intel 8086, 4.77MHz, 29000 transistors 1979 Intel 8088 1982
10、 Intel286, 12 MHz1985 Intel386 , first 32-bit, 25MhZ网络经济chapter 2 network economy9http:/ Intel 486 DX (with 487), 33 MHz1994 AMD 4861993 Intel Pentium, 60MHz1995 AMD AM5x86, 133MHz1995 Intel Pentium Pro1995 Cyrix 6x861996 AMD K51997 Pentium MMX1997 Pentium II, 1998 Celeron, 1999 P !2000 Celeron II,
11、Pentium IV, AMD Duron2003/03/12 Intel Centrino（迅馳）Year of IntroductionTransistors400419712,250800819722,500808019745,0008086197829,0002861982120,000Intel386 processor1985275,000Intel486 processor19891,180,000Intel Pentium processor19933,100,000Intel Pentium II processor19977,500,000Intel Pentium III
12、 processor199924,000,000Intel Pentium 4 processor200042,000,000Intel Itanium processor2002220,000,000Intel Itanium 2 processor2003410,000,000网络经济chapter 2 network economy11网络经济chapter 2 network economy13网络经济chapter 2 network economy14 In 1978,a commercial flight between New In 1978,a commercial flig
13、ht between New York and Paris cost around $900 and took York and Paris cost around $900 and took seven hours,if the principles of Moores Law seven hours,if the principles of Moores Law had been applied to the airline industry the had been applied to the airline industry the way they have to the semi
14、conductor industry way they have to the semiconductor industry since 1978,that flight would now cost about a since 1978,that flight would now cost about a penny and take less than one second.penny and take less than one second.19781978年，从纽约飞到巴黎需要年，从纽约飞到巴黎需要900900美元美元的费用还要花费的费用还要花费7 7个小时，如果飞行速度也个小时，如
15、果飞行速度也按照摩尔定律发展的话，现在我们飞行同样按照摩尔定律发展的话，现在我们飞行同样的距离，只要花费的距离，只要花费1 1美分，需要的时间不超美分，需要的时间不超过过1 1秒钟。秒钟。( (一一) )摩尔定律摩尔定律（MooreMoore s Laws Law）网络经济chapter 2 network economy15 如果飞机制造业的技术进步速度象自如果飞机制造业的技术进步速度象自2020世纪世纪6060年代中期以来的计算机产业的发展速度那年代中期以来的计算机产业的发展速度那么快的话，那么，到么快的话，那么，到2020世纪世纪8080年代中期，一年代中期，一架波音架波音767767飞
16、机的成本可能仅为飞机的成本可能仅为500500美元，美元，并可以在并可以在2020分钟内用分钟内用2020升汽油环球飞行一次升汽油环球飞行一次。 比尔比尔. .盖茨盖茨：假如美国通用汽车公司的技术能假如美国通用汽车公司的技术能像计算机技术那样发展，我们现在应该能用像计算机技术那样发展，我们现在应该能用2525美元买到一辆千英里耗油美元买到一辆千英里耗油1 1加仑的汽车。加仑的汽车。 ( (一一) )摩尔定律摩尔定律（MooreMoore s Laws Law）网络经济chapter 2 network economy16 戈登戈登 摩尔摩尔: : “我并不希望摩尔定律有多么的精确，我只是试图让人们知道未来半导体技术是什么样子的，希望我们能向着这个目标而努力。”( (一一) )摩尔定律摩尔定律（MooreMoore s Laws Law）网络经济chapter 2 network economy17（二）梅特卡夫定律（二）梅特卡夫定律（Metcalfes LawMetcalfes Law）Robert MetcalfeRobert Metcalfe founded 3Com Corpor
