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1、Lightening Strikes Twice: California Faces a Real Risk of A Second Power CrisisLake Tahoe Energy ConferenceJuly 30, 2004CONFIDENTIALThisreportissolelyfortheuseofclientpersonnel.Nopartofitmaybecirculated,quoted,orreproducedfordistributionoutsidetheclientorganizationwithoutpriorwrittenapprovalfromMcKi
2、nsey&Company.ThismaterialwasusedbyMcKinsey&Companyduringanoralpresentation;itisnotacompleterecordofthediscussion.Taking The Right Steps To Ensure A Powerful Future5 steps that will ensure a long-term sustainable market for powerTHE STATE IS AT RISK OF ANOTHER POWER CRISIS, BUT 5 KEY STEPS WILL HELP
3、TO ENSURE A SUSTAINABLE POWER MARKETAction needs to be taken today to prevent another energy crisis1. Newgenerationneedstobebuilttoday,giventhelongleadtime,andamechanismformarket-basedcontractswithutilitiesneedstobeintroduced2. Californiashouldintroducemandatorytime-of-usemeteringforallclassesofcust
4、omers3. NewtransmissionneedstobebuiltandfacilitatedthroughaexpeditedandcoordinatedapprovalprocessbythePUC,ISO,CEC,andFERC4. Aformalcapacitymarketcombinedwithamandatoryplanningreservetarget(e.g.,15-20%)needstobeinplaceby20065. TheStateshouldre-introduceelementsofretailchoice,providinganopportunityfor
5、largeconsumerstoshopforpowerCECestimatesindicatethatoperatingreservescoulddropbelowtypical“emergencylevelsifwehaveahotsummerUnfortunately,theCECsdemandestimatesappearlowrelativetotrendanda“highdemandcase(i.e.,hotsummer)maybeaslikelyasa1-in-5occurrenceTakingintoaccountrealisticlevelsoffuturedemand,op
6、eratingreservescouldbeextremelytightby2006aslowas5.8%(ina1-in-5yeardemandcase)1THE STATES ENERGY AGENCIES PROJECT A NEAR-TERM RISK OF LOW RESERVE MARGINS IN A HOT YEAR*Operatingreservemargincalculatedas(AvailableSupplyPeakDemand)/(PeakDemand)Source:CaliforniaEnergyCommission(July8,2004updatetoJune24
7、,2004report)1-in-10year(hot)1-in-2year(average)CECESTIMATESAugust2005August2006August2007August2021Projected California state operating reserve margin*PercentAugust20047% target = Stage One emergency level5% target = Stage Two emergency levelReserve margins consistently drop beginning in 2006Demand2
8、ENERGY AGENCY FORECASTS OF FUTURE DEMAND ARE OPTIMISTIC COMPARED TO ALTERNATIVE PROJECTIONSESTIMATESOF1-IN-2YEARPEAKDEMANDPeak demand (average weather), after conservationGW*Regressionprojectionbasedonhistoricweather,historicGSP,currentGSPprojections(5.6%),andaverageweather*BasedonhistoricCAGRforpea
9、kdemandgrowthbeforeincludingconservation(underlyinggrowthof1.88%for1983-2003)andadjustedforexpected2004-2021conservationinCalifornia(providedbyCEC)Source:CaliforniaEnergyCommission;BureauofEconomicAnalysis;EconomyRegressionmodel*CEC-July2004Trend*Different models of demandCEC-May2003For2006,theCECse
10、stimateis1,000 MWbelowtrend-lineestimatesand2,100 MWbelowaregressionmodelestimate3THE POTENTIAL FOR A “HIGH DEMAND CASE IS AS HIGH AS A 1-IN-5 EVENT, RATHER THAN JUST A 1-IN-10 EVENT1in2demand1 in 5 demand1in10demandDistribution of average statewide peak temperatureNumberofyearsobservedoverpast40yea
11、rs*BasedonBAEFregression-modelestimatesof2006peakdemandSource:CaliforniaEnergyCommissionTemperature rangeDegreesFahrenheit8outofthelast40years(or20%),peaktemperatureshavebeen101degreesorhigherThereislittledemanddifference,though,between101degreesand101.5degrees1 in 10101.51 in 5101Potential 2006 pea
12、k demand*GWBASEDONHISTORICDATA+3.4%+2.7%4TAKING INTO ACCOUNT A DIFFERENT VIEW OF FUTURE DEMAND, THE RISK OF SHORTAGES IS EVEN STARKER*Operatingreservemargincalculatedas(AvailableSupplyPeakDemand)/(PeakDemand)*Asmuchas2,000MWwouldberequiredtomaintainaplanningreservemarginof15%forthe1-in-5case,whichwo
13、uldequatetoa1-in-2operatingreserveof12.1%anda1-in-5operatingreserveof9.1%Source:CaliforniaEnergyCommission(July8,2004updatetoJune24,2004report);McKinseyanalysis1 in 5 year1in2yearBAEFESTIMATE7% target = Stage One emergency level750 MW of new capacity will be needed before 2006 to maintain a 7% opera
14、ting reserve under a 1-in-5 case*Giventheleadtimefornewconstruction,permittinganddemandsidemanagementneedstobegintodayAugust2005August2006August2007August2021Projected California state operating reserve margin*Percent5% target = Stage Two emergency levelDemand5THE STATE IS AT RISK OF ANOTHER POWER C
15、RISIS, BUT 5 KEY STEPS WILL HELP TO ENSURE A SUSTAINABLE POWER MARKET5 steps that will ensure a long-term sustainable market for powerAction needs to be taken today to prevent another energy crisis1. Newgenerationneedstobebuilttoday,giventhelongleadtime,andamechanismformarket-basedcontractswithutili
16、tiesneedstobeintroduced2. Californiashouldintroducemandatorytime-of-usemeteringforallclassesofcustomers3. NewtransmissionneedstobebuiltandfacilitatedthroughaexpeditedandcoordinatedapprovalprocessbythePUC,ISO,CEC,andFERC4. Aformalcapacitymarketcombinedwithamandatoryplanningreservetarget(e.g.,15-20%)needstobeinplaceby20065. TheStateshouldre-introduceelementsofretailchoice,providinganopportunityforlargeconsumerstoshopforpowerCECestimatesindicatethatoperatingreservescoulddropbelowtypical“emergencyle
