武汉理工大学硕士学位论文我国新能源汽车产业技术路线图研究姓名：张海波申请学位级别：硕士专业：载运工具运用工程指导教师：王宇宁20120521摘要20 世纪 90 年代以来，我国汽车工业实现了跨越式的发展，逐渐成长为我国国民经济的支柱产业汽车保有量的逐年增加，给我国带来了巨大的能源消耗和环境污染问题在能源危机和环境污染的双重压力下，发展新能源汽车已经成为我国实现汽车工业升级和可持续发展的重大举措但是，新能源汽车种类很多，各项技术的成熟度也存在较大的差异性，业界对于我国新能源汽车产业发展方向的定位也没有一个统一的答案产业技术路线图作为一种产业技术规划创新管理工具，能够为政府及相关科技部f-l$IJ 定产业政策提供决策依据，为产业技术资源的优化配置、产学研合作开展技术研发活动提供参考，为企业技术研发部门的研发选择提供方向本文首先介绍技术路线图的定义、类型以及发展现状，并对产业技术路线图的结构和制定过程进行研究，提出制定我国新能源汽车产业技术路线图的总体思路然后在分析我国新能源汽车产业现状的基础上，运用德尔菲法，从市场需求角度出发，绘制我国新能源汽车产业市场需求技术路线图接着通过对新能源汽车技术专利的分析，绘制专利地图，基于 TRIZ 技术系统进化法则，识别新能源汽车关键技术，绘制我国新能源汽车产业关键技术路线图。
最后绘制出我国新能源汽车产业综合技术路线图，并提出相关的实施建议以及设计动态监控平台实现产业技术路线图的后续管理研究结果表明，近期内将重点发展插电式混合动力汽车及纯电动汽车，燃料电池汽车的发展是中远期目标同时提高新能源汽车电池性能是当前产业最为重视的技术课题，电机及动力系统总成技术已经基本可以满足新能源汽车产业发展的需求，但是性能的进一步优化也是近期需要突破的技术本文的特色在于在德尔菲问卷调查定性分析的基础上，运用三角模糊数将问卷结果定量化，使结果更加科学可靠对新能源汽车产业未来技术发展通道的预测同时考虑市场拉动和技术推动两方面因素，使结果更加合理化最后充分考虑市场需求的不断变化及技术发展的动态性，设计了动态监控平台，实现我国新能源汽车产业技术路线图的后续更新关键词：新能源汽车，德尔菲法，TRI，产业技术路线图，动态监控平台puts forwardgeneralmakingindustry status，it makes a prediction for the developmentenergyroadmap about market demand． Thirdly， on the basisTRIZ，it analysesAbstractSince the 1990s．China’S automobile industry hasarapid development，andbecomes the pillar of the national economyindustry．With thecarincreasing year by year,it brings huge energy consumption and environmental pollutionto our country． Under thepressures of energy crisisand environmental pollution，the development of new energyvehicles is becominganimportant measure forourcountry to upgrade the auto industryand keep sustainable development．It’Sanimportant issue that how to position accuratelyofthe new energy vehicles’future development trend and the optimized allocation oftheresearch and development resources．Asakind of industry technical planning innovmionmanagementtool，industrial technology roadmapCallprovide basis for the governmentand related departments developingscienceand technology industrialpolicy anddeclaringmajorresearch and developmentproject．What’Smore，itcanprovide referencefor the industry optimizing allocation ofthe technologyresourcesand cooperationintechnology researchanddevelopment activities among the industry，the collegeand theresearch institution．It alsoenterprises．canprovide direction for the research and development ofFocusingonthesubjectof the industrialtechnologyroadmap of our country’S newenergy vehicle，this thesis makesan exploratoryresearch from two aspects ofmarkettraction and technology push for the technology development trends of our country’Snewenergy vehicleindustry． Firstly， itintroduces the definition，types and the developmentstatus ofthe technology roadmap， researches on thestructureand making process，andtheidea ofindustrialtechnologyroadmap forourcountry’snew energy vehicle．Secondly，basedonthe analysis ofour country’S newenergyvehicleof newvehicle from theperspective of market demand by using Delphimethod．And then makeatechnologyof the rule ofthetechnology patents ofourcountry’S newenergy vehicle and mapsapatent map·Throughthe analysis of technology patent,it specifies the development direction and recognizes¨the key technologies of the new energy vehicle，and makesatechnology roadmap aboutkey technology．Finally，it synthesizes the market demandtechnologyroadmap and keytechnology roadmap，and makesacomprehensivetechnologyroadmap ofourcountry’Snew energy vehicle industry．And then it puts forward some relevant implementationsuggestionsanddesignsadynamic monitoring platform for subsequent management ofthe industrialtechnologyroadmap．The result ofthis study shows that，it will focus onthe development ofplug—in hybrid vehicle and pure electric vehicle in thenearfuture，and the development of fuel cell vehicle will be the long termgoal．Meanwhile，improving the performance of baaery is the most important issueSOfar．The motor andpower system assemblycanmeet the needs of the development of new energy vehicle，but still have room for improvement．The thesis features in that,basedonthe qualitative analysis with Delphiquestionnaire survey，itUSeStriangular fuzzy number to make the resultquantified．Meanwhile，it predicts thefuture development of new energy vehicle considering bothmarket demand and technology pull．Finally，considering the variation of market demandand the dynamic of technology development,it designsadynamic monitoring platformto realize the subsequence updates of the industrialtechnologyroadmap．Key words：new energy vehicle，Delphi method，TRIZ theory，industrial technologyroadmap，dynamic monitoring platform武汉理工大学硕士学位论文第 1 章绪论1．1研究的背景进入 2l 世纪以来，我国汽车工业实现了快速发展，已经成长为国民经济重要的支柱产业。
2001 年到 2010 年，我国汽车产量从 233．44 万辆激增到 l 826．47 万辆，平均每年增幅达到 20％以上2009 年，在金融危机的冲击下，全球汽车行业整车产销量严重下滑，但是我国汽车行业却逆势上扬，产销量分别达到1379．1 万辆和1364．48 万辆，成为全球第一汽车生产国和消费国2010 年，我国汽车产销量双双突破 1800 万辆大关，分别达到1826．47 万辆和 1806．19 万辆201 1 年我国汽车产销量再创新高，产销量分别达到1841．89 万辆和 1850．51 万辆，连续三年成为全球汽车第一生产国和消费国，这也标志着我国已经成为了全球汽车大国【l】 汽车保有量的逐年增加，带来了巨大的能源消耗和环境问题截至2011 年 8 月底，我国汽车保有量达到 l 亿辆由于汽车燃料多数为石油资源，直接导致我国石油资源的快速消耗同时，我国石油资源相对贫乏，人均石油开采储量远远低于世界平均水平，造成我国石油需求。