单击此处编辑母版标题样式,单击此处编辑母版文本样式,第二级,第三级,第四级,第五级,,*,*,2004,年,年12,月,月,贵,州,州,移,移,动,动,客,客,户,户,细,细,分,分,模,模,型,型,项,项,目,目,报,报,告,告,,1,报,告,告,会,会,议,议,程,程,一,、,、,项,项,目,目,背,背,景,景,及,及,前,前,阶,阶,段,段,工,工,作,作,回,回,顾,顾,二,、,、,客,客,户,户,细,细,分,分,方,方,法,法,论,论,三,、,、,贵,贵,州,州,移,移,动,动,客,客,户,户,细,细,分,分,模,模,型,型,四,、,、,通,通,用,用,客,客,户,户,细,细,分,分,结,结,果,果,分,分,析,析,及,及,相,相,应,应,市,市,场,场,策,策,略,略,五,、,、,短,短,信,信,专,专,题,题,客,客,户,户,细,细,分,分,结,结,果,果,分,分,析,析,及,及,相,相,应,应,市,市,场,场,策,策,略,略,六,、,、,基,基,于,于,客,客,户,户,细,细,分,分,结,结,果,果,的,的,市,市,场,场,营,营,销,销,活,活,动,动,讨,讨,论,论,,,,,,,,2,报,告,告,会,会,议,议,程,程,一,、,、,项,项,目,目,背,背,景,景,及,及,前,前,阶,阶,段,段,工,工,作,作,回,回,顾,顾,二,、,、,客,客,户,户,细,细,分,分,方,方,法,法,论,论,三,、,、,贵,贵,州,州,移,移,动,动,客,客,户,户,细,细,分,分,模,模,型,型,四,、,、,通,通,用,用,客,客,户,户,细,细,分,分,结,结,果,果,分,分,析,析,及,及,相,相,应,应,市,市,场,场,策,策,略,略,五、,短,短信,专,专题,客,客户,细,细分,结,结果,分,分析,及,及相,应,应市,场,场策,略,略,六、,基,基于,客,客户,细,细分,结,结果,的,的市,场,场营,销,销活,动,动讨,论,论,,,,,,,,3,项目,概,概述,项目,主,主题,：,：,贵州,移,移动,客,客户,细,细分,模,模型,项目,范,范围,：,：,本期,项,项目,以,以贵,阳,阳市,为,为试,点,点城,市,市,项目,目,目的,：,：,按用,户,户行,为,为进,行,行细,分,分，,客,客观,反,反映,用,用户,需,需求,。
通,过,过对,各,各类,人,人群,的,的深,入,入分,析,析，,为,为相,关,关部,门,门制,订,订资,费,费、,服,服务,、,、市,场,场策,略,略提,供,供基,础,础项目,内,内容,：,：,建立,客,客户,细,细分,模,模型,结合,各,各部,门,门需,求,求对,客,客户,细,细分,群,群进,行,行详,细,细分,析,析,协助,市,市场,经,经营,部,部进,行,行相,关,关服,务,务、,市,市场,活,活动,的,的策,划,划,,4,项目,各,各阶,段,段计,划,划,第一,阶,阶段,：,：需,求,求调,研,研、,项,项目,范,范围,界,界定,在与,各,各部,门,门的,访,访谈,中,中，,了,了解,各,各部,门,门的,需,需求,点,点，,以,以便,在,在客,户,户细,分,分后,有,有重,点,点地,进,进行,分,分析,第二,阶,阶段,：,：收,集,集提,取,取数,据,据,依据,第,第一,阶,阶段,的,的需,求,求，,收,收集,并,并整,理,理数,据,据，,把,把数,据,据加,载,载到,指,指定,的,的数,据,据库,表,表，,为,为下,一,一阶,段,段的,建,建模,提,提供,基,基础,第三,阶,阶段,：,：建,模,模及,分,分析,建立,细,细分,模,模型,，,，对,贵,贵阳,移,移动,用,用户,进,进行,细,细分,。
并,根,根据,前,前期,访,访谈,所,所了,解,解的,需,需求,，,，结,合,合贵,阳,阳具,体,体情,况,况，,对,对客,户,户细,分,分群,进,进行,详,详细,分,分析,第四,阶,阶段,：,：应,用,用专,题,题设,计,计,根据,第,第一,阶,阶段,的,的访,谈,谈，,并,并在,第,第三,阶,阶段,的,的细,分,分结,果,果分,析,析基,础,础上,，,，协,助,助市,场,场经,营,营部,门,门对,部,部分,重,重点,细,细分,群,群体,有,有针,对,对性,地,地设,计,计市,场,场策,略,略和,市,市场,活,活动,注：SPSS,的,的CRISP,建,建模,流,流程,包,包含,了,了第,二,二、,三,三阶,段,段，,所,所以,此,此阶,段,段内,容,容在,建,建模,步,步骤,中,中详,细,细讲,述,述5,150－300元（市州）,500元以下（贵阳）,普通全球通客户,300元（市州）,500元（贵阳）,贵宾卡,800元,全球通银卡,1500元,全球通金卡,3000元,全球通钻石卡,ARPU,全球通客户等级,贵州,移,移动,已,已对,用,用户,按,按ARPU值,进,进行,了,了用,户,户细,分,分，,并,并对,不,不同,级,级别,的,的客,户,户采,取,取了,不,不同,的,的服,务,务策,略,略。
贵州,移,移动,客,客户,细,细分,现,现状,,6,高端,用,用户,中端,用,用户,低端,用,用户,以全,球,球通,新,新形,象,象涵,盖,盖目,标,标群,的,的共,性,性特,质,质,,以顶,级,级服,务,务/,享,享受,满,满足,和,和稳,固,固,以领,先,先业,务,务刺,激,激和,带,带动,目前,客,客户,细,细分,无,无法,完,完全,满,满足,业,业,务,务部,门,门增,长,长需,求,求,通过,业,业务,访,访谈,，,，我,们,们了,解,解到,基,基于ARPU,值,值的,客,客户,细,细分,还,还无,法,法完,全,全满,足,足业,务,务部,门,门日,益,益增,长,长的,业,业务,需,需求,准确,了,了解,客,客户,行,行为,可,可以,进,进一,步,步了,解,解客,户,户，,增,增加,客,客户,满,满意,度,度,,,7,针对各,部,部门的,需,需求访,谈,谈,访谈部门,需求点,策略分析,计费中心,主要通过计费中心了解客户细分项目系统平台的需求和系统环境,,市场经营部,关注全球通品牌整合，希望通过品牌整合提高服务品质，实现在业务、回馈、渠道上的差异化,,通过客户细分，分析品牌整合高中端人群行为消费特征，为其设计差异化服务。
并对品牌整合的效果从客户细分角度进行监测如何更好服务于中端用户,在客户细分后准确定位全球通中端用户，研究其行为方式和特征，进行有针对性的服务设计和活动策划通过提高服务来挽留有离网倾向用户,,研究分析有价值的离网用户行为特征，策划有针对性的活动或服务进行挽留营销中心,关注双机倾向用户的挽留希望通过发现有双机倾向的用户，并在其购买之前进行挽留,,分析以往双机用户的行为特征及关注点，针对有价值用户设计服务项目及策划活动预警离网用户，通过提高服务来挽留有离网倾向用户,,研究分析有价值的离网用户行为特征，策划有针对性的活动或服务进行挽留关注大众卡的效果,通过客户细分了解大众卡的受众群，向有流失可能的用户进行宣传，并避免直接影响全球通其他用户通过对,各,各部门,的,的访谈,，,，为客,户,户细分,模,模型的,建,建立提,供,供指导,依,依据8,针对各,部,部门的,需,需求访,谈,谈,访谈部门,需求点,策略分析,客户服务中心客户关系管理室,目前的外呼服务多为服务宣传和用户调查外呼用户多为随机抽取，缺乏策略性希望通过客户细分节约外呼成本，提高外呼效率和效果，并深入挖掘外呼应用对客户进行细分后，在外呼时可提供有针对性的服务。
在推荐产品或进行调查前便了解用户的行为特征、生活方式等，有助于提高亲和力，节省人员和资金成本，并提升效果数据部,对于目标用户只了解其大致特征，不清楚其更细致的行为特征、生活方式等，因此在推各项业务时定位不准希望通过客户细分模型了解各种数据业务的使用人群以及使用行为方式通过客户细分，寻找其重要业务的目标人群，并详细分析特征，对业务的规则制定、推广提供依据贵阳－市场部,小灵通和联通竞争激烈，希望了解有转网倾向的用户的特征，并进行及时挽留,,分析有可能转至小灵通、联通的用户，由于整个样本空间规模较小，可以适当对中高端人群制定一对一的服务策略,目前所有产品都针对所有人群进行推广，希望找到目标人群有的放矢地进行推广，提高效率，节约成本,分析各种产品的目标用户，研究其行为特征，并通过交叉销售带动整个产品的销售增量希望找到短信密集使用人群，并以此为导入点，制定有效的方式刺激整个短信市场,,通过对短信密集人群的行为分析，找到此类人群，通过他们带动周围人群的短信使用量，并通过他们对移动产品及业务进行软性宣传,,9,报告会,议,议程,一、项,目,目背景,及,及前阶,段,段工作,回,回顾,二、客,户,户细分,方,方法论,三、贵,州,州移动,客,客户细,分,分模型,四、通,用,用客户,细,细分结,果,果分析,及,及相应,市,市场策,略,略,五、短,信,信专题,客,客户细,分,分结果,分,分析及,相,相应市,场,场策略,六、基,于,于客户,细,细分结,果,果的市,场,场营销,活,活动讨,论,论,,,,,,,,10,客户细,分,分分析,结,结果能,帮,帮助贵,州,州 移,动,动实现,股,股东价,值,值的最,大,大化,从各个,角,角度来,增,增加股,东,东价值,，,，都需,要,要以客,户,户细分,为,为基础,。
股东价值最大化,利润增长,收入增长,资产回报增长,增加现有的收入,(,现有客户),创造新的收入,(,新客户),提高客户接触成本 有效性,提高资产收益率,增加客户周期,（降低客户流失率,),提高现在的客户关系,(增加现有产/服务销售),提高现在的客户关系,(增加新产品/服务销售),提高在现有的客户群中的份额,进入新的客户群,提供新产品和服务,提高营销成本 有效性,提高销售成本 有效性,提高服务成本 有效性,提高库存/,定单管理成本有效性,提高基础设施/中央服务设施成本,有效性,将资源分配给高价值的产品/客户,提升客户细分/区分度,进行产品和渠道的重新组合,,客户群信息,客户价值图,进入新的市场,（地理上）,,11,客户细,分,分是产,品,品开发,、,、市场,营,营销的,基,基础,客户细,分,分使差,异,异化成,为,为可能,，,，使提,供,供的产,品,品和服,务,务更直,接,接的针,对,对某一,特,特定客,户,户群,,为什么,划,划分客,户,户群？,产品/,服,服务,理解客,户,户对产,品,品的偏,好,好，针,对,对客户,的,的需求,提,提供产,品,品,渠 道,理解客户,对,对销售和,服,服务要求,，,，有针对,性,性地设计,销,销售渠道,,推 广,理解客户,对,对市场活,动,动的反应,和,和接受程,度,度，针对,客,客户群制,定,定推广策,略,略,价格制定,理解客户,的,的价格敏,感,感度，针,对,对客户的,需,需求制定,价,价格战略,,12,分析型CRM的子,工,工作流关,系,系图,本次客户,细,细分项目,重,重点对客,户,户行为及,需,需求进行,分,分析，及,对,对客户细,分,分群进行,定,定义。
客户行为及 需求分析,流失预测分析,流失原因分析,客户价值,,客户细分群的定义,客户策略,挽留策略,客户生命 周期价值,交义销售和增量销售,其他分析模型,客户价值,客户细分,客户周期价值,客户流失,其他分析模型,,13,分析型CRM各模,型,型的相互,关,关系和用,处,处,模型互相,作,作用-输,入,入方向,客户价值,模,模型,,交叉销售,和,和增量,销,销售发现,模,模型,应用模型,流失预测,模,模型,客户细分,模,模型,1,2,识别高离,网,网率的高,价,价值客户,预估将来,最,最有可能,离,离网的客,户,户,可更准确,地,地区分高,价,价值的客,户,户群,因,客,客户价值,代,代表每个,客,客户群在,其,其生命周,期,期内为贵,州,州移动所,带,带来的价,值,值,商业应用,1,根据客户,细,细分模型,的,的 输出,物,物 ,,再,再加上每,个,个应用模,型,型的不同,分,分析,,便,便能把客,户,户群分得,更,更准确、,更,更清晰,1,1,2,3,客户行为,、,、客户价,值,值、客户,需,需要…,识别客户,群,群的交叉,和,和增量销,售,售机会,,从,从而增加,收,收入,了解客户,对,对产品/,服,服务的需,求,求,,支持模型,客户周期,价,价值,分析模型,3,渠道盈利,分,分析模,型,型,挽留响应模,型,型,4,5,4,对各种渠道,的,的成本所带,来,来的收益及,付,付出的成本,有,有更请楚和,准,准确的了解,对发展客户,所,所付出的佣,金,金作合理水,平,平分析,以,方,方便将来作,为,为品牌代理,的,的分折,5,预估客户对,客,客户挽留活,动,动有响应的,可,可能性,分析现有营,销,销活动及集,中,中目标、减,低,低投资,分析型CRM通过建立,模,模型实现知,识,识分析平台,将客户数,据,据转化为对,客,客户的了解,并由此产,生,生有针对性,的,的运作,,14,可供选择的,客,客户细分方,法,法,具体选用哪,种,种方法需要,考,考量实施细,分,分方法的难,易,易程度及有,效,效程度，同,时,时还要增加,股,股东价值和,满,满足决策目,标,标,实施的难易,程,程度,人口统计(Demographical),客户价值(CustomerValue),行为方式(Behavioral),态度(Attitudinal),性别,年龄,户藉,职业,婚姻状况,教育程度,收入,通话时段,繁忙和非繁忙通话量,漫游服务,方便程度,行为方式的变化,高利润率,中等利润率,低利润率,负利润率,,形象,价值观,生活方式,心理因素,,,人口统计,行为方式,客户价值,态度,客户细分方式范例,,,15,各种,客,客户,细,细分,方,方法,的,的比,较,较,任何,客,客户,细,细分,都,都会,运,运用,到,到多,维,维的,客,客户,细,细分,方,方法,。
每,个,个细,分,分方,法,法都,有,有其,优,优缺,点,点细,分,分,基,基,础,础,优,势,势,劣,势,势,应,用,用,客户特征,人口统计,所处的生命周期,对营业厅的接近度,可计量的,可获得的 (容易得到外部数据),难以和使用行为联系起来,客户保持及获取战略,客户行为,使用频率,使用量/价值,型号偏好,使用产品,应用服务,能被多次记录及确认,在一定范围内可实行,已有内部客户数据,可将使用记录入数据库中,根据对客户行为的初步分析作出决定,不可前瞻,数据可信度,业务战略,战略性客户细分的选择,重点的财务分析,数据库可为公司各业务的营销战略提供支持,历史数据分析,客户态度,价格敏感度,对促销的敏感度,品牌忠诚度,整体满意度,满意的程度,可了解客户态度，提高有效性,可计量的,在一定范围内可实行,不可评估、确认,难以获得,难以和外部数据相连接,和内部评估没有直接联系,目标客户获取及保留,新产品开发,品牌战略,客户需求的确认,认识改善的机会,,16,我,们,们,在,在,贵,贵,州,州,移,移,动,动,使,使,用,用,的,的,客,客,户,户,细,细,分,分,方,方,法,法,考,虑,虑,不,不,同,同,客,客,户,户,细,细,分,分,方,方,法,法,的,的,有,有,效,效,性,性,及,及,实,实,施,施,的,的,难,难,易,易,程,程,度,度,，,，,并,并,结,结,合,合,移,移,动,动,所,所,提,提,供,供,的,的,数,数,据,据,资,资,源,源,和,和,移,移,动,动,用,用,户,户,特,特,点,点,，,，,我,我,们,们,采,采,用,用,用,用,户,户,行,行,为,为,方,方,式,式,进,进,行,行,客,客,户,户,细,细,分,分,，,，,再,再,结,结,合,合,人,人,口,口,统,统,计,计,和,和,客,客,户,户,价,价,值,值,准,准,确,确,定,定,位,位,细,细,分,分,人,人,群,群,。
客户价,值,值,人口统计,行为方式,客户群X,客户细,分,分三维,分,分析体,系,系,,,三维分析体系所带来 的业务利益,客户价值,识别高价值客户群，成为目标客户群,行为方式,如何针对目标客户群，根据客户行为分析，扩展及保留客户群，提供服务满足客户需求,人口统计,整理客户群的背景资料以便市场营销人员能找到目标客户群,,,17,报告会,议,议程,一、项,目,目背景,及,及前阶,段,段工作,回,回顾,二、客,户,户细分,方,方法论,三、贵,州,州移动,客,客户细,分,分模型,四、通,用,用客户,细,细分结,果,果分析,及,及相应,市,市场策,略,略,五、短,信,信专题,客,客户细,分,分结果,分,分析及,相,相应市,场,场策略,六、基,于,于客户,细,细分结,果,果的市,场,场营销,活,活动讨,论,论,,,,,,,,18,,本期客,户,户细分,模,模型—,—,—聚类,模,模型,聚类的,原,原理是,把,把具有,相,相近特,征,征的观,测,测值聚,集,集为一,组,组，保,证,证各组,间,间特征,的,的相异,性,性最大,，,，同组,内,内各观,测,测值特,征,征的相,似,似性最,大,大在本项,目,目中，,采,采用通,话,话行为,、,、数据,业,业务使,用,用情况,等,等作为,细,细分变,量,量，把,有,有相近,行,行为特,征,征的人,群,群聚为,一,一组。
各条记,录,录在细,分,分变量,空,空间的,透,透视图,,点对点,短,短信,梦网短,信,信,本地通,话,话,,通话行,为,为,数据业,务,务,长途通,话,话,各行为,特,特征在,空,空间的,位,位置相,对,对集中,，,，因此,被,被划分,为,为有一,定,定共同,行,行为特,征,征的客,户,户群,,19,CRISP-DM（Cross-IndustryStandardProcess forData Mining）,具,具体,流,流程如,下,下图：,数据,挖,挖掘,方,方法,论,论—,—,—CRISP-DM,各个,环,环节,顺,顺序,进,进行,，,，但,需,需要,不,不断,地,地循,环,环往,复,复进,行,行数,据,据探,索,索和,模,模型,的,的调,优,优,,20,各环,节,节所,涉,涉及,的,的内,容,容和,人,人员,先不,考,考虑,循,循环,往,往复,的,的探,索,索和,调,调优,过,过程,，,，直,接,接顺,序,序考,察,察各,个,个环,节,节,,,确定,商,商业,目,目标,ETL,建立,模,模型,数据,收,收集,、,、管,理,理,数据,探,探索,、,、修,改,改,各部,门,门访,谈,谈,计费,中,中心,支,支持,数,数,据,据挖,掘,掘工,程,程师,数据挖掘,、,、商业分,析,析、市场,营,营销人员,,,,,,商业理解Business,Understanding,数据理解,DataUnderstanding,数据准备,DataPreparation,建立模型Modeling,模型评估,Evaluation,结果发布,Deployment,模型调优,应用策略,CRISP-DM,,21,步骤一：,商,商业理解,我们基于,访,访谈中了,解,解的客户,需,需求，采,用,用用户行,为,为特征作,为,为细分变,量,量，用户,人,人口统计,信,信息和客,户,户价值作,为,为描述变,量,量，从而,定,定位人群,特,特征。
对行为特,征,征从以下,几,几个方面,来,来获取信,息,息,对多元化服务的需求程度,,服务类型,对通话的多层次需求,本地、长途、漫游呼叫时长,本地、长途、漫游呼叫次数,呼叫时间、次数（繁忙/非繁忙时段，工作/休息时段）,呼叫类型（主叫、被叫、呼转）,对资费的敏感程度,IP使用情况,优惠时段通话情况,拨打1861次数,对方便性及信息实时性的需求,SMS使用次数,Monternet使用次数,WAP上网时间,GPRS数据流量,,导出客户需求种类,客户数据,注：细分,变,变量——,用,用于进行,客,客户细分,的,的变量描,描述,变,变量——,将,将客户细,分,分成各个,群,群体后，,各,各群体的,基,基本特征,,22,步,骤,骤,一,一,：,：,商,商,业,业,理,理,解,解,基,于,于,客,客,户,户,需,需,求,求,，,，,并,并,结,结,合,合,以,以,上,上,行,行,为,为,特,特,征,征,选,选,取,取,的,的,方,方,向,向,，,，,我,我,们,们,定,定,义,义,了,了,几,几,组,组,数,数,据,据,作,作,为,为,细,细,分,分,变,变,量,量,通话范围,本地通话,d_local,t_local,省内长途通话,d_toll_inprn,t_toll_inprn,省间长途通话,d_toll_btwprn,t_toll_btwprn,国际、港澳台长途通话,d_toll_htm+idd,t_toll_htm+idd,活动范围,省内漫游通话,d_rm_inprn,t_rm_inprn,省际漫游通话,d_rm_btwprn,t_rm_btwprn,国际漫游通话,d_rm_idd,t_rm_idd,IP使用情况,IP通话,d_ip,t_ip,与各运营商联系程度,网内通话比例,d_mob_vs_Ttl,t_mob_vs_Ttl,联通通话比例,d_uni_vs_Ttl,t_uni_vs_Ttl,小灵通通话比例,d_phs_vs_Ttl,t_phs_vs_Ttl,固话通话比例,d_fix_vs_Ttl,t_fix_vs_Ttl,呼转行为,,d_fwd_total,t_fwd_total,数据业务使用情况,WAP使用,d_wap,t_wap,点对点及网间短信发送次数,t_sms_total,梦网短信发送次数,t_sms_mont,客 服,到营业厅次数,t_service,拨打1860次数,t_1860,拨打1861次数,t_1861,注,：,：,其,其,中,中d_X,代,代,表,表,时,时,长,长,，,，t_X,代,代,表,表,次,次,数,数,,23,步,骤,骤,一,一,：,：,商,商,业,业,理,理,解,解,客户基本信息,age,,,special_fee,,,t_fwd_uni,male,sms_fee,d_fwd_fix,female,wap_fee,t_fwd_fix,GenderMissing,ip_fee,闲时忙时通话情况,d_pkon_total,CashPay,gprs_fee,t_pkon_total,PrePay,message_fee,d_pkoff_total,vip_mark,other_fee,t_pkoff_total,due_mark,主叫被叫情况,d_outgoing_total,工作时间、生活时间通话情况,d_worktime_total,tenure_in_days,t_outgoing_total,t_worktime_total,费用信息,ARPU,d_incoming_total,d_resttime_total,should_fee,t_incoming_total,t_resttime_total,favor_fee,联系人群范围,distinct_out_total,各项短信使用情况,t_sms_p2p,rent_fee,distinct_in_total,t_sms_link,local_fee,与联系紧密人群的主被叫情况,d_outgoing_topN,t_sms_topN,inprn_fee,t_outgoing_topN,sms_msg_length,btwprn_fee,d_incoming_topN,distinct_sms_send,htm_fee,t_incoming_topN,distinct_sp,idd_fee,各项呼转情况,d_fwd_mob,,rm_inprn_fee,t_fwd_mob,rm_btwprn_fee,d_fwd_srv,rm_idd_fee,t_fwd_srv,rm_toll_fee,d_fwd_uni,通,过,过,细,细,分,分,变,变,量,量,将,将,客,客,户,户,进,进,行,行,细,细,分,分,，,，,再,再,通,通,过,过,以,以,下,下,描,描,述,述,变,变,量,量,定,定,位,位,人,人,群,群,，,，,进,进,一,一,步,步,分,分,析,析,人,人,群,群,特,特,征,征,。
24,步,骤,骤,二,二,：,：,数,数,据,据,理,理,解,解,—,—,—,—,数,数,据,据,源,源,来,来,自,自,经,经,营,营,分,分,析,析,系,系,统,统,客户基本信,息,息（DW_USR_DCUSTM,）,）,用户帐务信,息,息（DW_FEE_SHOULDDM）,CDR信息,语音CDR,（,（DW_CALL_CDR）,IP业务CDR（DW_NEWBUSI_CDR）,短信业务CDR（DW_NEWBUSI_SMSCDR,）,）,梦网业务CDR（DW_NEWBUSI_MESGCDR）,客服信息,,25,步骤三：数,据,据准备,宽表生成流,程,程,注：宽表是,将,将数据经过,组,组合所形成,的,的包括细分,变,变量和描述,变,变量的记录,表,表DSS目前,开放的表格,作为接口表,其他接口文,件,件,作为中间表,的,的,数据集1,作为中间表,的,的,数据集2,建模使用的,宽,宽表,数据集,建模使用的,宽,宽表,数据集,接口文件直,接,接参与宽表,的,的生成,,26,步骤四：建,立,立模型,通过因子分,析,析找到变量,之,之间的关系,，,，并优化变,量,量组合在,对,对模型结果,的,的分析中，,根,根据标准—,—,—群间差距,最,最大，群内,差,差距最小的,原,原则进行分,析,析，同时调,整,整变量组合,，,，以尽量接,近,近标准。
以,此,此方式循环,，,，逐步使模,型,型得到优化,数据探索,建 摸,模型分析,因子分析,,,27,步骤四：建,立,立模型——,数,数据探索,customer type,项目,百分比,数量,用户类型不详,0.01,7,B普通,73.44,95758,B重要客户A1,0.14,185,B重要客户A2,0.10,133,B重要客户A3,0.18,241,B重要客户A4,0.21,276,B集团客户B1,0.22,282,B集团客户B2,1.13,1473,B集团客户B3,2.25,2930,B集团客户B4,6.28,8193,B信誉客户C1,0.01,11,B信誉客户C2,0.03,40,B信誉客户C3,1.38,1793,B信誉客户C4,1.01,1321,B信誉客户C5,1.51,1968,B信誉客户C6,1.54,2006,B潜在大用户,10.29,13411,B老客户,0.05,70,B原重要,0.02,21,B公免,0.21,269,customer_status,项目,百分比,数量,正常,79.05,103066,冒高,17.43,22721,欠停,0.34,448,报停,1.69,2206,挂失,0.02,23,预销,1.28,1669,强开,0.05,62,强关,0.15,193,tenure_in_days,项目,百分比,数量,在网时间90天以上,0.79,102942,在网时间90天以内,0.21,27446,公免不能代,表,表普遍用户,行,行为，容易,对,对在聚类形,成,成噪音,在用户状态,中,中仅选择正,常,常用户,选择入网时,间,间90天以,上,上用户，保,证,证研究样本,拥,拥有完整的,研,研究期间数,据,据 （2004年8-10月）,注：黄色部,分,分为去掉的,数,数据,,,28,步骤,四,四：,建,建立,模,模型,—,——,数,数据,探,探索,在记,录,录中,发,发现should_fee,（,（用,户,户应,收,收费,）,）=favor_fee（,优,优惠,费,费）,的,的用,户,户记,录,录，,详,详细,查,查看,其,其记,录,录，,比,比较,异,异常,。
在,与,与贵,阳,阳移,动,动分,公,公司,访,访谈,后,后了,解,解此,类,类记,录,录多,为,为用,于,于测,试,试的,号,号码,于,是,是去,掉,掉该,部,部分,记,记录,customer_id,phone_no,should_fee,favor_fee,320035348,13908510041,381.76,381.76,320035349,13908510042,375.02,375.02,320035350,13908510043,797.27,797.27,320035351,13908510044,1090.68,1090.68,320035352,13908510045,6.66,6.66,320035353,13908510046,432.07,432.07,320035354,13908510047,1478.76,1478.76,部分should_fee=favor_fee,的,的记,录,录,,29,步骤,四,四：,建,建立,模,模型,—,——,数,数据,探,探索,短信,发,发送,人,人数,极,极多,号,号码,有,有可,能,能为,移,移动,统,统一,向,向用,户,户发,送,送。
以distinct_sms_send,（,（短,信,信发,送,送的,人,人数,）,）为,例,例,在通,过,过变,量,量的,标,标记,直,直接,去,去掉,非,非正,常,常值,外,外，,还,还通,过,过查,看,看数,据,据去,掉,掉极,值,值，,以,以免,极,极少,数,数用,户,户的,行,行为,对,对细,分,分结,果,果形,成,成噪,音,音以d_local,（,（本,地,地通,话,话时,长,长）,为,为例,极少,数,数人,的,的个,别,别行,为,为可,能,能影,响,响细,分,分群,，,，所,以,以在,研,研究,其,其图,形,形分,布,布后,，,，去,掉,掉部,分,分极,值,值,,30,贵阳移动,用,用户的ARPU值,分,分布,贵阳的平,均,均ARPU值：156.48元,步骤四：,建,建立模型,—,——数据,探,探索,我们获得,的,的贵阳移,动,动用户记,录,录共有130388条，经,过,过正常值,选,选择、极,值,值处理等,，,，最后用,于,于研究的,记,记录有78339,条,条以下,数,数据探索,工,工作着重,于,于了解贵,阳,阳移动用,户,户概貌，,以,以及发现,数,数据存在,的,的问题。
贵阳移动,用,用户年龄,分,分布,贵阳移动,用,用户性别,比,比例,贵阳移动,用,用户区域,分,分布,,31,贵阳移动,用,用户付费,方,方式,步骤四：,建,建立模型,—,——数据,探,探索,贵阳移动,用,用户付费,信,信息中，,仅,仅有现金,支,支票和预,付,付费用户,两,两种标记,建议将,信,信用卡托,收,收、各银,行,行代收等,方,方式进行,标,标记,根据全球,通,通品牌整,合,合计划，,市,市州地区,用,用户ARPU值在300元,以,以上可享,有,有贵宾卡,，,，即VIP用户从,从图中所,示,示，系统,中,中VIP,标,标记部分,有,有误贵阳移动,用,用户VIP情况,,32,步骤四：,建,建立模型,—,——生成,客,客户细分,模,模型,使用SPSS数据,挖,挖掘工具,进,进行客户,细,细分,,33,步骤五：,模,模型评估,以t_fix_vs_total为强势特,征,征的细分,组,组t_fix_vs_total的分布,所有用户t_fix_vs_total（固话通,话,话比例）,的,的分布,细分前整,个,个用户群,数,数据落差,较,较大细,分,分后，各,组,组的强势,变,变量的分,布,布趋于平,缓,缓，可看,出,出，聚类,模,模型将具,有,有相似特,征,征的记录,聚,聚在一组,。
若在此步,骤,骤中若发,现,现模型不,够,够优化，,还,还需要回,到,到第四步,骤,骤，甚至,第,第三步骤,进,进行调整,,34,步骤六：,结,结果发布,对模型结,果,果进行分,析,析，并针,对,对细分群,提,提出相应,策,策略，该,部,部分内容,在,在下一节,详,详细讲述,,35,报告会议,程,程,一、项目,背,背景及前,阶,阶段工作,回,回顾,二、客户,细,细分方法,论,论,三、贵州,移,移动客户,细,细分模型,四、通用,客,客户细分,结,结果分析,及,及相应市,场,场策略,五、短信,专,专题客户,细,细分结果,分,分析及相,应,应市场策,略,略,六、基于,客,客户细分,结,结果的市,场,场营销活,动,动讨论,,,,,,,,36,细分结果,数,数据表（12个客,户,户细分组,）,） ——,细,细分变量,,组1,组2,组3,组4,组5,组6,组7,组8,组9,组10,客户细分群,cluster-1,cluster-8,cluster-12,cluster-9,cluster-7,cluster-5,cluster-10,cluster-3,cluster-11,cluster-4,cluster-6,cluster-2,客户数,,,,,,,,,,,,,占总客户比例,0.065,0.090,0.197,0.193,0.102,0.158,0.125,0.011,0.035,0.020,0.005,0.001,ARPU,68.53,98.87,126.41,135.44,145.52,162.74,153.84,194.58,467.68,545.86,818.85,1422.02,本地通话时间,7874.74,9575.98,14219.88,15029.94,18305.44,20607.77,18176.30,15219.15,74130.90,47523.80,49344.00,39735.35,本地通话次数,80.93,103.79,161.61,170.09,211.23,238.01,200.97,140.33,822.74,497.04,521.28,406.72,省内长途通话时间,255.34,560.60,671.11,843.86,658.50,885.16,1159.61,987.36,3774.80,8389.12,8418.61,6134.88,省内长途通话次数,1.86,4.42,5.72,7.29,5.71,7.81,10.02,7.12,34.03,73.17,73.56,53.14,省际长途通话时间,110.32,305.75,293.05,409.41,269.26,373.12,533.24,485.09,1263.32,2209.19,15981.60,4346.05,省际长途通话次数,0.60,1.73,1.81,2.58,1.65,2.34,3.43,2.80,8.71,15.92,120.70,28.84,国际港澳台长途通话时间,0.32,6.78,1.63,2.82,1.00,0.89,2.56,0.22,10.42,7.91,31.48,4273.49,国际港澳台长途通话次数,0.00,0.04,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.00,0.06,0.05,0.22,37.47,省内漫游通话时间,338.40,591.40,781.29,1046.00,796.11,1108.62,1560.10,1362.62,4515.15,10459.79,9909.14,8736.74,省内漫游通话次数,3.24,5.70,7.91,10.64,8.17,11.53,15.91,12.84,46.96,102.90,94.05,83.40,省际漫游通话时间,34.12,191.22,169.02,253.75,124.42,180.73,311.17,257.00,538.17,1436.58,14768.83,4178.14,省际漫游通话次数,0.25,1.44,1.39,2.11,1.08,1.57,2.62,2.03,4.75,12.32,127.57,31.60,国际漫游通话时间,0.17,1.52,0.78,1.32,0.82,0.79,3.52,0.00,12.78,6.33,29.38,4633.49,国际漫游通话次数,0.00,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.00,0.11,0.05,0.24,43.30,IP,通话时间,492.19,600.45,584.37,688.80,599.59,729.46,1084.45,2591.80,1104.83,8322.41,6629.19,2273.72,IP,通话次数,2.35,3.26,3.44,3.97,3.40,4.31,6.08,10.48,6.63,53.23,40.87,11.07,呼叫转移时间,666.86,689.19,904.18,988.47,1190.04,1353.71,1233.80,807.35,3677.67,2933.65,3967.39,3909.30,呼叫转移次数,8.89,10.47,13.67,15.03,18.27,20.41,18.64,11.43,57.94,43.24,59.17,61.81,与移动通话时间,/,总通话时间,0.13,0.17,0.22,0.39,0.19,0.36,0.58,0.34,0.46,0.34,0.46,0.44,与移动通话次数,/,总通话次数,0.11,0.17,0.22,0.40,0.18,0.35,0.57,0.32,0.46,0.34,0.47,0.49,与联通通话时间,/,总通话时间,0.07,0.09,0.16,0.09,0.39,0.24,0.09,0.10,0.18,0.17,0.15,0.11,与联通通话次数,/,总通话次数,0.06,0.08,0.16,0.09,0.39,0.24,0.09,0.10,0.19,0.17,0.15,0.12,与小灵通通话时间,/,总通话时间,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.00,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.00,0.00,与小灵通通话次数,/,总通话次数,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.00,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.00,0.00,与固话通话时间,/,总通话时间,0.17,0.61,0.41,0.36,0.27,0.23,0.21,0.26,0.22,0.36,0.32,0.38,与固话通话次数,/,总通话次数,0.14,0.57,0.39,0.34,0.25,0.22,0.19,0.23,0.21,0.34,0.30,0.37,WAP,上网时间,19.12,6.46,8.84,9.14,8.96,10.44,15.70,92.46,26.46,16.09,2.78,128.37,WAP,上网次数,0.14,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.08,0.62,0.16,0.08,0.02,0.26,短信总次数,33.30,11.05,19.52,21.92,28.80,29.94,37.44,701.66,53.13,49.90,58.34,87.40,梦网短信次数,4.00,3.98,4.66,4.77,4.51,4.95,4.82,8.50,6.64,7.05,7.16,6.93,到营业厅次数,0.48,0.53,0.73,0.82,0.76,0.95,0.90,1.67,3.31,3.73,4.73,6.84,拨打,1860,次数,1.73,0.63,0.84,0.72,0.98,0.94,0.84,3.68,0.82,1.08,0.84,0.21,拨打,1861,次数,6.81,2.45,4.02,3.56,4.83,5.15,4.27,11.52,3.15,4.06,2.11,0.26,,37,细分结果,数,数据表—,—,—描述变,量,量（一）,,组1,组2,组3,组4,组5,组6,组7,组8,组9,组10,客户细分群,cluster-1,cluster-8,cluster-12,cluster-9,cluster-7,cluster-5,cluster-10,cluster-3,cluster-11,cluster-4,cluster-6,cluster-2,客户数,,,,,,,,,,,,,占总客户比例,0.065,0.090,0.197,0.193,0.102,0.158,0.125,0.011,0.035,0.020,0.005,0.001,ARPU,68.53,98.87,126.41,135.44,145.52,162.74,153.84,194.58,467.68,545.86,818.85,1422.02,年龄,30.99,35.39,34.19,34.32,32.79,32.92,32.74,24.18,33.79,33.72,34.93,35.95,男性比例,0.59,0.64,0.67,0.66,0.69,0.72,0.66,0.47,0.75,0.74,0.80,0.77,女性比例,0.29,0.27,0.25,0.25,0.22,0.20,0.25,0.44,0.16,0.19,0.15,0.12,性别不详比例,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.12,现金付费比例,0.09,0.19,0.19,0.21,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.08,0.51,0.51,0.59,0.86,预付费比例,0.91,0.81,0.81,0.79,0.84,0.82,0.82,0.92,0.49,0.49,0.41,0.14,VIP,比例,0.07,0.13,0.18,0.20,0.18,0.23,0.20,0.18,0.76,0.81,0.85,0.88,欠费比例,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.10,0.05,在网时长（天）,775.00,823.20,852.02,888.43,760.20,827.97,794.64,424.44,1214.86,1152.10,1192.93,1500.07,应收费,88.89,128.22,164.29,179.07,194.14,220.03,215.79,258.79,692.31,697.45,991.01,1552.63,优惠费,20.35,29.35,37.88,43.63,48.61,57.29,61.95,64.21,224.63,151.59,172.16,130.61,月租费,21.56,35.10,38.07,39.20,39.74,42.81,40.71,18.98,48.90,49.37,49.09,49.22,基本通话费,42.48,59.87,87.67,92.93,115.20,128.86,113.00,97.73,500.66,329.60,336.54,259.09,本地通话费比例,0.48,0.47,0.53,0.52,0.59,0.59,0.52,0.38,0.72,0.47,0.34,0.17,省内长途费,0.85,2.34,2.47,2.94,2.28,3.10,3.74,3.51,14.29,22.71,20.88,14.11,省际长途费,1.74,4.52,5.20,6.85,5.10,6.74,9.30,7.90,27.07,65.88,98.06,58.33,港澳台长途费,0.00,0.02,0.00,0.01,0.00,0.01,0.00,0.00,0.01,0.03,0.06,2.64,国际长途费,0.01,0.34,0.08,0.11,0.03,0.01,0.08,0.00,0.51,0.21,0.81,29.41,长途费比例,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.13,0.12,0.07,省内漫游费,3.48,6.71,8.74,11.67,8.67,12.08,17.24,14.85,48.02,127.08,110.90,97.69,省际漫游费,0.43,2.79,2.22,3.33,1.55,2.29,4.02,3.36,6.51,23.34,183.56,57.51,国际漫游费,0.02,0.22,0.12,0.26,0.14,0.13,0.50,0.00,2.20,0.94,6.27,706.27,漫游费比例,0.04,0.08,0.07,0.09,0.05,0.07,0.10,0.07,0.08,0.22,0.30,0.55,漫游长途费,0.24,1.89,1.39,2.05,0.90,1.35,2.34,1.79,4.74,12.04,116.55,202.86,特服费,6.63,6.75,7.34,7.58,7.74,8.40,8.15,6.17,13.79,14.36,19.12,17.94,SMS,费,4.59,1.38,2.11,2.24,2.40,2.63,3.71,81.09,3.38,4.32,4.42,6.14,WAP,费,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.12,0.04,0.03,0.00,0.28,IP,费,1.62,2.10,1.99,2.32,2.08,2.42,3.70,9.60,4.19,27.82,20.30,19.78,IP,费比例,0.57,0.23,0.22,0.19,0.25,0.22,0.24,0.73,0.09,0.28,0.09,0.06,GPRS,费,0.45,0.10,0.15,0.19,0.14,0.15,0.31,0.36,1.71,2.28,2.68,12.09,代收信息费,4.34,3.57,4.68,5.12,4.36,5.36,5.28,12.35,10.35,11.22,11.57,14.60,其它费,0.36,0.55,2.02,2.20,3.71,3.65,3.66,0.60,5.88,6.11,10.10,16.78,,38,细分结果,数,数据表—,—,—描述变,量,量（二）,,组1,组2,组3,组4,组5,组6,组7,组8,组9,组10,客户细分群,cluster-1,cluster-8,cluster-12,cluster-9,cluster-7,cluster-5,cluster-10,cluster-3,cluster-11,cluster-4,cluster-6,cluster-2,客户数,,,,,,,,,,,,,占总客户比例,0.065,0.090,0.197,0.193,0.102,0.158,0.125,0.011,0.035,0.020,0.005,0.001,ARPU,68.53,98.87,126.41,135.44,145.52,162.74,153.84,194.58,467.68,545.86,818.85,1422.02,主叫通话时间,5266.84,6145.73,7954.73,8442.79,10029.99,11172.89,10108.50,8461.86,38951.29,27426.91,34500.81,25890.70,主叫通话次数,51.54,64.18,89.51,94.98,114.78,128.15,112.57,82.95,426.79,279.85,336.41,252.40,被叫通话时间,2949.69,4299.05,7223.79,7831.84,9194.73,10677.88,9739.74,8211.85,40198.52,30501.98,38798.64,29502.33,被叫通话次数,32.29,46.56,80.56,85.92,104.77,121.02,102.79,68.33,439.92,306.02,376.67,285.09,主叫通话时长,/,被叫通话时。