UNCERTAINTY, EVOLUTION, AND ECONOMICTHEORY不确定性、进化和经济理论ARMEN A. ALCHIANUniversity of California at Los AngelesA modification of economic analysis to incorporate incomplete information and uncertain foresight as axioms is suggested here. 本文提出一种经过改进的经济分析方法， 以将不完全信息和不确定预知作为不言自明的客观存在引入经 济分析 This approach dispenses with “profit maximization ”; and it does not rely on the predictable, individual behavior that is usually assumed, as a first approximation, in standard textbook treatments. 这一分析方法扬弃了“利润极大化”；同时放弃了个体行为的可推测性，而在一般的教科书中，个体行为的可 推测性通常被假定为一个最基本的条件。
Despite these changes, the analyticalconcepts usually associated with such behavior are retained because they are not dependent upon such motivation or foresight. 尽管作了上述两点修正，但进行这类行为分析时常用的那些概念仍旧保留下来， 因为这些分析概念本身并不依赖于这种动 机或预见 The suggested approach embodies the principles of biological evolution and natural selection by interpreting the economic system as an adoptive mechanism which chooses among exploratory actions generated by the adaptive pursuit of “ success ” or “profit. ” 这里提出的这种分析方法吸收了生物进化和自然选择原理， 把经济体系解释为一个甄别机制， 这一机制具有甄选那些 试图追逐“成功”或利润“的适应性行为的功能。
The resulting analysis is applicable to actions usually regarded as aberrations from standard economic behavior as well as to behavior covered by the customary analysis. 用这一方法，不仅能对那些通常被视为异常的经济行为进行分析， 而且亦适用于传统分析所包括的 一切行为分析 This wider applicability and the removal of the unrealistic postulates of accurate anticipations and fixed states of kno这一分析方法剔除了“精wledge have provided motivation for the study.确预期”和“固态知识”这两个不真实的假说，其更广泛的适用性为经济学研究提供了动力The exposition is ordered as follows: First, to clear the ground, a brief statement is given of a generally ignored aspect of “profit maximization, ” that is, where foresight is uncertain, “profit maximization ” is meaningless as a guide to specifiab le action. 本文将进行的阐释如下：首先，需要明确的是， “利润最大化”有一个方面的简要阐述被普遍忽略了， 即，当预见具有不确定性的时候， “利润最大化”作为某一具体行动的指导是没有什么意义的。
The constructive development then begins with an introduction of the element of environmental adoption by the economic system of a posteriori most appropriate action according to the criterion of “realized positive profits. ” 其次，建设性的发展起自一个环境选择原理的引入，这个环境选择原理是一个后 验的经济体系，其最适宜行为依据的是“实现净利润”而非“利润最大化”准则 This is illustrated in an extreme, random-behavior model without any individual rationality, foresight, or motivation whatsoever. Even in this extremetype of model, it is shown that the economist can predict and explain events with a modified use of his conventional analytical tools. 这表明了即使在没有丝毫个体理性、 预见性或者动机性的极端随机行为模型中， 经济学家也能够通过对 传统分析工具进行的一些修正，来预测和解释事件。
This phenomenon—environmental adoption —is then fused with a type of individual motivated behavior based on the pervasiveness of uncertainty and incomplete information. 再次，在普遍存在不确定性和不完全信息 的世界中，环境选择这一现象和一类个体的动机性行为相融合 Adaptive, imitative, and trial-and-error behavior in the purs uit of “positive profits ” isutilized rather than its sharp contrast, the pursuit of “maximizedprofits. ” 对照利润最大化的追求，在净利润追求过程中的那些适应性、模仿性和试错性行 为将被更好的利用 A final section discusses some implications andconjectures. 最后，本文将讨论基于这些原理的一些影响及推测。
I . “PROFIT MAXIMIZATION NOT A GUIDE TO ACTIONI. 利润最大化并非是行动的指导Curre nt econo mic an alysis of econo mic behavior relies heavily on decisions made by rati onal un its customarily assumed to be seeking perfectly optimal situations. 当今经济分析中，经济行为严重依赖于理性单位所做的决定，即在传统假设中，理性个体总是谋求一个完美的最优情况 Two criteria are wellknown— profit maximizati on and utility maximizati on. 这个最优情况有两个众所周知的准则： 利润最大化和效用最大化 Accordi ng to these criteria, appropriatetypes of acti on are in dicated by margi nal or n eighborhood in equalities which, if satisfied, yield an optimum.根据这两个标准，当边际上或者临域间（收 益）不相等的时候，人们就总是会有相宜类型的（改进）行动，直到最终达成最优状况。
But the sta ndard qualificati on usually added is that no body is able really to optimize his situati on accord ing to these diagrams and con cepts because of uncertainty about the position and, sometimes, even the slopes of thedema nd and supply fun ctio ns. 然而，标准的限定条件通常表明，因为个体并不清楚关于自身所处地位的状况和供给需求函数的斜率， 所以通常没有人真能根据这些图表或概念从而最优化其自身的境况 Nevertheless, the econo mist in terprets and predicts thedecisions of individuals in terms of these diagrams, since it is alleged that in dividuals use these con cepts implicitly, if not explicitly. 尽管如此，经济学家对于个体决定的解释和推断仍然基于这些图表和概念，因为经济学家们断言， 个体即便不是明确地，也会在无意识进行选择时使用这些图表或者概念。
Attacks on this methodology are widespread, but only one attack hasbee n really damagi ng, that of . 对这个方法论的抨击是非常广泛和普遍的，但是只有一个抨击是真正具有毁灭性的， 来自教授Hedenies that profit maximization even他认为由于不确定性的存在，利润makes any sense where there is un certa inty.最大化已经变 的毫无意义Un certa inty arises from at least two sources: imperfect foresight and human inability to solve complex problems containing a host of variables even when an optimum is definable. 即使“最优化”可被定义，但不确定性至少仍来源于两方面： 1） 不完美的预见性； 2）面对复杂或者包含多变量的问题时，人类的能力是十分有限的。
Tintner 's proof is simple. Under uncertainty, by definition, each action that may be chosen is identified with a distri。