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1、上海海事大学硕士学位论文 现代物流业发展对天津产业结构优化影响的研究摘 要随着全球经济一体化不断深入以及社会分工越来越细，现代物流业发展也越来越迅速，所涉及的范围也越来越广，在国民经济和产业结构中的基础性、辐射性作用也逐渐凸现。天津市地处环渤海经济圈中心，是中国北方最大的沿海开放城市和近代工业的发源地也是我国北方的海运与工业中心，经济发展十分活跃。2009年国务院批复同意天津市调整滨海新区行政区划，天津滨海新区被誉为“中国经济未来第三增长极”，经济发展潜力不可估量。然而天津现代物流业发展仍然落后，已不能满足天津先进制造业和新兴产业的要求，是天津产业结构不断优化的障碍。如何通过有效的发展现代物流
2、业来优化天津市产业结构，既具有重大的理论意义也具有重要的实践意义。文章首先从产业经济学理论角度上，详细阐述了现代物流业由于其自身的产业关联效应和产业波及效应不断推进其它产业优化升级,并比较透彻地分析了现代物流业对国民经济体系中三大产业的带动作用和促进作用。然后结合天津市现代物流业和产业结构发展现状，利用统计学分析模型选取了相关数据对天津市现代物流业和产业结构之间的关系进行了实证分析，验证了发展现代物流业可以不断促进天津市产业结构优化升级。论文得出天津现代物流业的发展为该地区经济发展提供良好的基础服务和支持环境，有力的推进区域各产业部门的发展和升级，促进产品结构、企业组织结构和产业结构的调整优化
3、，并将促进生产与流通之间的良性互动，从而最终表现于推动这个产业结构优化升级。最后论文在基于天津市产业结构优化角度上并结合天津市目前经济发展现状有针对性的对天津市发展现代物流业提出了对策和建议。关键词： 现代物流业，产业结构合理化，产业结构高度化，产业关联效应，产业波及效应ABSTRACTAlong with the deepening global economic integration and the social division of labor getting smaller, the development of modern logistics industry is more
4、and more rapidly, the scope becomes wider than before, and in the national economy and industrial structure of the fundamental, role of radiation also gradually emerging. Tianjin is located in the center of the Bohai economic circle, the largest coastal open city and the birthplace of modern industr
5、y in northern China. And Tianjin is also the shipping and industrial center in northern China, whose economic development is very active. In 2009 the State Council approved the adjustments of administrative divisions of Tianjin Binhai New Area. Tianjin Binhai New Area is named as the Third Pole of C
6、hinas economic future, ad its economic development has immeasurable potential. However, the development of modern logistics in Tianjin still lagging behind, can not meet the requirements of the advanced manufacturing and emerging industries in Tianjin. And this is an obstacle for optimization of ind
7、ustrial structure in Tianjin.How to make the development of modern logistics industry effectively to optimize the industrial structure of Tianjin, not only has great theoretical significance, but also has important practical significance.Firstly the article elaborated its own modern logistics indust
8、ry and its spillover effects as well as associated effects which promote other industrial optimization and upgrading from the industrial economics perspective. The article also analyses thoroughly the economic system of modern logistics industry as the leading role and promoting role of the three ma
9、jor industries. Secondly combined with Tianjin logistics and industrial development, the article use the statistical analysis model to select data on the Tianjin logistics and industrial relationship to demonstrate that the development of modern logistic industry can continue to promote the Tianjin
10、industrial structure optimization and upgrading. The paper results that the development of the modern logistics industry in Tianjin provide a good basis service and support environment for the regional economy, as well as promote the development and upgrading among regional industrial department. It
11、 can also promote product structure, organizational structure and the adjustment of industry structure. Last it can promote the positive interaction between production and circulation to promote the industrial structure optimization and upgrading.Finally, the article put forward some countermeasures
12、 and suggestions for the development of modern logistics industry in Tianjin, based on the perspective on the industrial structure and economic development in Tianjin and combined with the current status of Tianjin. The article also gives some industrial policy for the relevant government department
13、s to develop a theoretical basis.KEYWORDS: modern logistics industrial, industrial rationalization, industrial structure, industrial relations, industrial ripple effectLi Zhi (Industrial economics) Directed by Zhang Lijuan目 录引 言1第一节 研究的背景和意义1第二节 国内外研究综述2第三节 论文主要研究方法7第四节 论文主要内容和框架7第一章 相关理论及现代物流业促进产业结
14、构优化机理分析9第一节 相关理论分析9第二节 现代物流业促进产业结构优化机理分析15第二章 天津市现代物流业与产业结构发展分析24第一节 天津市现代物流业发展概述24第二节 天津市产业结构发展分析30第三章 现代物流业发展对天津产业结构优化影响的实证分析34第一节 现代物流业对天津市产业结构合理化促进作用分析34第二节 现代物流业对天津产业结构高度化促进作用分析41第四章 基于产业结构优化的天津现代物流业发展对策44第一节 加速提高天津市现代物流业的产业化发展水平44第二节 促进天津现代物流业与先进制造业联动发展，推动产业结构升级46第三节 努力发展天津物流技术水平促进其产业结构优化48结 论
15、50致 谢51参考文献5255引 言第一节 研究的背景和意义一、论文研究的背景天津地处环渤海中心区域，是北方港口枢纽，具有很强的辐射力。随着国家对天津市滨海新区的开发，天津滨海新区将建设为北方国际航运中心和国际物流中心，这就对天津市现代物流业提出很高的要求，从目前天津市现代物流业发展现状来看，已经不能满足天津市经济发展的要求，因此发展天津市现代物流业也是非常迫切需要的。从天津市产业结构现状来分析，随着改革开发特别是进入90年代以来，天津市产业结构不断优化，第二、第三产业所在比例稳步上升，第一产业所占比例不断下降。而且各个产业内部结构也得到不断升级和提高，这充分说明了天津市产业结构发展的历程符合发达国家现代经济发展的规律。然而进入21世纪以来，特别是从2003年开始，天津第三产业所占比例不仅没有提高，而且呈现不断下降的趋势。2002年天津市第三产业占国内生产总值比例为46.4%，而2008年这一数据竟然下降到38.0%，下降了8.4个百分点，回到了1995年以前的水平。而第二产业所占比例继续膨胀，到2008年已达60.1%。从这一系列数据不难看出天津市产业结构调整的道路艰苦而漫长，形势也十分严峻。不仅相对于世界其他国家一些大城市，就是和国内一线二线城市相比，天津市第三产业的发展已经落后很多。2008年北京、上海第三产业所占GDP比例分别达到73.2%、53.7%
