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1、 II 摘摘 要要 本论文以消费者感知效用为主线，以推理行为理论为核心，对电子商务环境下的 消费者行为进行了研究。 首先以菲什拜因的态度意图理论为基础，通过对消费者隐性成本和需求特点的分 析，结合技术接纳模型和技术创新扩散理论，认为消费者的感知风险，感知可用性和 感知易用性对消费者网上购物态度产生影响，同时考虑消费者的创新特性对消费者意 图的直接影响和通过影响消费者态度进而对消费者意图的间接影响，建立了一个设想 的从态度到意图以至做出购买决策的消费者行为态度模型。通过可信度分析和假设检 验，确定了电子商务环境下的消费者行为态度模型。 接着以著名的巴斯扩散模型为基础，对电子商务环境下的消费者创新
2、扩散行为影 响因素进行了分析，针对 Bass 扩散模型的特点以及应用领域，按照电子商务环境下 的消费者创新扩散特点，对消费者的扩散行为进行了适当的假设，从电子商务环境下 的消费者态度特性角度出发，把消费者分为三种不同类型的消费者，创新者、模仿者 和滞后者，根据三种不同态度类型的消费者受大众传媒、商品或者服务的价格，以及 人际关系的影响程度不同，设计了消费者创新扩散行为的模拟结构和流程，利用 Agentsheets 模拟软件，对电子商务环境下的消费者创新扩散行为进行模拟。 Bass 扩散模型只考虑了单代产品与服务的扩散与管理， 因此紧接着从多代产品扩 散和个体消费者角度建立了升级换代型产品的选择
3、模型，结合技术产品升级替代模型 和重复购买模型的特点，从多代产品之间的技术替代和重复购买方面研究消费者选择 行为。针对升级换代型产品的特点，从行为经济学的有限理性消费者假设出发，建立 了升级换代型产品的消费者选择 logit 模型。 考虑到个人计算机应用的普遍性， 以个人 计算机为升级换代型产品为代表设计问卷，利用收集到的数据资料，采用统计分析方 法，对模型进行了拟合优度检验以及参数估计。并以重复购买个人计算机的消费者为 例，基于市场可供选择的计算机产品限制，计算了重复购买各计算机产品代的概率， 并对结果进行了分析和解释。 消费者在选择商品与服务时，面临各种偏好冲突。在对电子商务环境下的消费者
4、 偏好冲突特点进行分析后，在对消费者偏好进行假设的基础上，分析了偏好冲突模型 建立时可能存在的误差问题， 为了尽可能减少模型误差， 基于相依排列期望效用理论， III 建立了消费者在有限资源限制条件下的偏好冲突模型。采用在线调查获得的消费者在 不同权衡幅度和概率条件下的选择数据，对消费者偏好模型参数进行了估计和误差分 析，并提出了解决参数估计误差最小化的方法。 综合运用营销学、社会学、心理学和经济学的消费者行为研究成果，对电子商务 环境下的消费者行为进行了定性模拟。心理学认为消费者行为是认知信息处理导致 的品牌比较，从而做出购买决策。社会学认为消费者行为是一项与社会关系相关的 活动。从经济学的
5、观点看，消费者行为是基于价格和信息搜寻成本的理性或者有限 理性的选择与评价过程。在对电子商务环境下的消费者行为特点进行分析后，集成 消费者行为研究的理论成果，结合定性模拟理论和定性过程理论，针对三种不同态 度特性的消费者：创新者、模仿者和滞后者，设计了相应的定性模拟决策规则，建 立了电子商务环境下消费者行为定性模拟系统。 最后从电子商务环境下不同生命周期阶段的消费者需求特点出发，充分考虑消费 者的个人偏好，以消费者需求为导向建立了基于多 Agent 的消费者需求代理系统，系 统采用信息过滤技术和消费者描绘技术结合的混合消费者刻画方法，非线性回归的协 商策略、 相邻提议比较策略以及基于效用阈值的
6、推荐方法， 设计了消费者刻画、 协商、 优化与推荐为主体的需求代理工作流程。利用多 Agent 的 ZEUS 开发平台，实现了系 统的基本功能。 关键词：关键词：电子商务 消费者行为 定性模拟 智能体 偏好 效用 IV Abstract The paper focuses on the consumers perceived utility and the theory of reasonned action, and research has been done on the consumer behavior in the electronic business environment.
7、Firstly, based on Fishbeins attitude intention theory, after the hidden cost and demand characteristics of the consumers having been analyzed, combined with the technology adoption model and innovation diffusion theory, it has been taken into account that the consumers perceived risks, perceived use
8、fulness and perceived ease of use have effect on the consumers attitude .Whats more, personal innovation does not only influence the consumers intention but also influences the consumers intention by way of consumers attitude , a hypothesized model has been set up which is from attitude to intention
9、 and intention is related to decision. After reliability analysis and hypothesis test having been tested, the consumer behavior attitude model in the e-commerce environment has been established. Then in the light of the most famous Bass diffusion model, after having been discussed about the influenc
10、e factors of consumer innovation behavior diffusion in the e-commerce environment, based on the Bass model restriction and application, according to the diffusion characteristics in the electronic commerce environment, after the rational suppose of the consumer innovation diffusion behavior having b
11、een made, three types of consumers originated from consumers attitude characteristics have appeared: innovations , imitations and laggards. The simulation structure and procedure of the diffusion behavior of consumers has been designed based on three different attitude characteristics because three
12、types of consumers are influenced by the media, the products or services price and people around consumers differently. The consumer innovation diffusion behavior in the e-commerce environment has been simulated by means of the simulation software of Agentsheets. Owing to the Bass model only aims to
13、 one single product diffusion and management, and then the choice model of multi-generation product has been set up in the light of V multi-generation product diffusion and an individual consumer, combined with the product substitute model of technological products and the repeated purchase model, c
14、onsumer selection behavior has been studied in the light of the substitution of multi-generation products and repeated purchase. According to the characteristic of the technology product and the behavior economics suppose of the bounded rational consumers, it has been set up about the logit model of
15、 consumers choice probability. Because of the wide application of the personal computer, personal computer is regarded as a representative of the multi-generation products and a questionnaire has been designed. The collected data has been taken to examine the fit degree of the model and the estimati
16、on of the model parameter. It has been taken an example for an individual consumer who will buy the personal computer repeatedly, and the repeated purchase probability of personal computer in the markets available . Whats more, the result of the model has been analyzed and explained. Preference conflicts appears when faced with the selection of products and services. After the preference conflict of the consumers having been analyzed in the e-commerce environment, and the existing pos
