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1、本 科 生 毕 业 设 计 (论 文)题目：基于预警机制的阶梯电价研究 教学单位 _电信学院_姓 名 罗 秋 燕 学 号 _ 2_年 级 _ 2009级_专 业_ 电气工程及其自动化_指导教师 _刘独玉_ 2013年 4 月 12 日村民建房委员会应建立村级农房建设质量安全监督制度和巡查制度，选聘有责任心和具有一定施工技术常识的村民作为义务巡查监督员，开展经常性的巡查和督查。V目 录摘要第一章 绪论11.1 选题背景11.2 选题意义21.3 国外的研究动态21.4 本文的研究内容4第二章 我国阶梯电价的实施62.1 国内的实施现状62.1.1 实施现状62.1.2 与国外的对比7第三章 基概
2、率论的季节性阶梯电价产生的效应的研究113.1春秋季节阶梯电价模型113.2冬夏季节阶梯电价模型133.3春秋季阶梯电价模型实例163.4冬夏季阶梯电价模型实例173.5秋季和夏季阶梯电价效应比较19第四章 我国阶梯电价分段电量研究214.1阶梯电价分段电量和电价的制定原则214.2分段电量的制定方法21第五章 阶梯电价的资源优化价值分析23 5.1交叉补贴分析235.2节能效益分析26第六章 研究总结与展望30 本文研究总结30阶梯电价实施分析和建议30摘要这些年以来，电价在大大加快市场化改革的步伐，已经初步建立了科学合理和公开透明的政府定价制度.国家发改委还将积极稳妥的推进电价市场化进程，
3、拟定将继续优化销售电价的分类结构，减少电价的交叉补贴，建立有利于引导用户合理用电，促进节能减排的电价体系。2010年10月，发改委出台了关于居民生活用电实行阶梯电价的指导意见(征求意见稿)。发改委针对电量分档和电价制定给出了两个参考方案，这些举措都表明阶梯电价即将在全国范围内推行。当前我国电力市场还尚未完全建立起来，电价体系仍然不完善，因此，在电力市场环境下,由季节性电价、分时电价、峰谷电价等主要组成的销售电价，在我国开展缓慢，一些相关的外部环境和技术条件等配套措施也还不成熟。对于我国电力企业来说，不同的用电市场，应该是根据不同细分用电市场的价格弹性来确定经济性上合理的定价方式。通常来说，收入
4、较低的群体通常对电价很敏感，容易因电价上涨而减少电力的消费，所以价格弹性大；而高收入消费群体则不太在乎电价的上涨，当然价格弹性就较小。对于我国居民来说，目前的居民用电平均定价，并没有考虑到消费群体的差异。按照目前的电力平均定价或平均提价，那么低收入居民将会减少用电量，由于电价相对较贵；而高收入居民则增加用电量，电价相对便宜。目前实施的对不同消费量实行统一电价的模式，居民的平均电价低于供电成本，居民基本上是在高峰期用电，用电量越多峰就越高，供应成本就越贵。在这种情况下，要么通过制定较高的工业电价进行交叉补贴，要么通过国有电力企业的亏损进行补贴，实质上更多地补贴给了高收入居民，因为高收入家庭用电最
5、多。实行阶梯电价，除了能反映社会的公平，还更加有利于鼓励居民节约用电、减少能源的浪费。本文将针对阶梯电价如何对居民产生效应，考虑季节性的阶梯电价如何缓解电网负荷高峰期间的供电紧张局面,以达到引导居民“节约用电、节能减排”的目的。关键词：阶梯电价；概率论；季节性；效应ABSTRACTOver the years, the electricity market reform greatly accelerate the pace of scientific and reasonable and transparency of government pricing system preliminar
6、y established. The NDRC will also actively yet prudently proceed with electricity price marketization, intends to continue to optimize the sales price classification structure, reduce the cross subsidy, build conducive to energy conservation and emissions reduction, to guide users reasonable electri
7、city price system.In October 2010, the national development and reform commission issued about a ladder electricity price guidance of resident power consumption (draft). And the step and tariff design presents a reference scheme, two herald a ladder electricity price is introduced across the country
8、. Current our country electric power market has not yet fully established, electricity price system is still not perfect, therefore, power market environment, the main content of the sales price seasonal peak valley electricity, time-sharing electricity price, electricity price, etc., in China is sl
9、ow, and the external environment and the technical conditions of form a complete set of also is not yet mature.For the electric power enterprise, different segmentation of electricity market, economy and reasonable pricing should be determined according to the price elasticity of different market se
10、gments. Generally speaking, the low-income groups usually is sensitive to price, easy due to the increase in power tariff reduce electricity consumption, price elasticity; And high income consumers dont care much about electricity price rise, the price elasticity is small.For residents, residents of
11、 Chinas current average electricity pricing, did not consider different consumer groups. According to the current average price or the average price of electricity, the low-income residents can reduce power consumption (relatively expensive), whereas high-income residents to increase consumption (ch
12、eaper). Of unified electricity current of different consumption pattern, the average price is lower than the cost of supply, the consumer is basically on peak electricity, power consumption peak is higher, the more cost of supply, the more expensive. In this case, or through high cross-subsidisation
13、 industrial electricity price, or by the losses of state owned power enterprises subsidies, subsidies more essentially the high-income residents, because the most high-income households. A ladder electricity price, in addition to reflect social justice, is more conducive to encourage residents to sa
14、ve electricity and reduce.This article will focus on how ladder electricity price effect on residents, consider seasonal ladder electricity price how to relieve the tense situation of power grid during the peak load of power supply, to guide the residents save electricity, energy conservation and emission reduction goal.Key words: ladder electr
