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1、Analysis Report of Macro EconomyWritten by: 胡非徐声 叶俊卿 吴越2013/11/10u Firstly, the global economy and foresight: faces three big challengesIn the first half of 2013, global economic growth showed a trend of differentiation. United States is in the process of recovery, and recovery gradually increases.
2、Japans recovery is in stimulating type. The process is in the short-term strong growth. Europe is still in debt during the recession, and growth is slow depressed. Emerging economies is in the process of structural slowdown in economic growth potential. In the face of post-crisis economic differenti
3、ation, tone of major economies policy will adjust accordingly. The whole, the global economy once again facing reshuffle and adjusting, mainly faces three risk challenges:(A) The risk of exit of the Federal Reserves quantitative easing The Federal Reserve may be exit of quantitative easing at the en
4、d of the year. In 2008, U.S. subprime crisis caused the international financial crisis and American economy into a quagmire. In order to stimulate the U.S. economy growth, the Fed launched a round of quantitative easing.Since the beginning of this year, the U.S. economy is in steady recovery. It is
5、expected the Federal Reserve will gradually withdraw from quantitative easing monetary policy. In the first quarter GDP fold at an annual rate of 1.8% in the United States, In the second quarter, manufacturing, real estate residents consumption market and financial conditions continue to improve. Th
6、e recovery is strong. From the Federal Reserve most valued indicators, the unemployment rate, the U.S. job market has been improving steadily. There are more than average monthly increased non-farm jobs, close to the normal level before the crisis. The unemployment rate fell to 7.6% in June, compare
7、d to the highest fell by 2.4 and at the end of this year unemployment rate is expected to further dropped to around 7%. The fed chairman said that if the U.S. economy recovery can reach the expected level, quantitative easing exit may have three big impacts on global financial markets. The quantitat
8、ive easing will become the largest uncertainty in the global economic events, and a huge impact to global financial markets. One is global currency will inversion. With quantitative easing quit, it will lead to a dollar into the recession against the non-us currencies.Commodity prices will into the
9、downlink channel. Once the exit of quantitative easing, the dollar rose value will bring down the commodity prices into the channel, it will have a significant for resources countryCapital flows reversed may induce local financial crisis. Since the long-term weak dollar and low interest rates, make
10、it become the latest must-haves in the carry trade. Once the quantitative easing, the dollar carry trade positions, is bound to cause the dollar scale back, leading to other countries financial market turmoil.(B) The risk of the Yen depreciatedAbe economics gave rise to the yen depreciated economics
11、. At the end of 2012, Shinzo Abe implemented a series of economic stimulus policies; accelerate the core content of the so-called three narrow , namely, quantitative and qualitative easing monetary policy (QQE), flexible and fiscal policy. Structural reform is the core economic growth strategy.Under
12、 the QQE policy, the bank of Japan will base money growth rhythm about 60-70 trillion yen a year, at the same time, buy long-term government bonds and ETFs stock exchange traded funds real estate investment trust fund, and other risky assets, and promise to implement QQE before inflation hit 2% last
13、. The second arrow is a fiscal stimulus. Japans parliament has approved as much as 13 trillion yen (more than 1400$) supplementary budget for the fiscal stimulus. The third arrow is structural reforms, including deregulation, promote private investment, and promote the reform of the Labor market and
14、 to join the TPP agreement and enhance agricultural competitiveness. Although Japans long-term recession, the deterioration of the balance of payments objectively provides a foundation for the yen.It is expected, become the direct factors to promote the substantial depreciation of the yen. Since Oct
15、ober 2012 so far, the accumulated depreciation has reached more than 30% against the dollar, and the quantitative wide loose we will continue to implement the devaluation channel will remain. The yen could increase the Asian economic risks. The yen could increase the Asian economic risks while the y
16、en to economic recovery brought some short-term effect, but in the long run there is a big uncertainty. The Japanese stock market after the peak emergence in late fall sharply, shows the market for Japan economic outlook of the lack of confidence. In addition, the yen will have on emerging market countries around larger impact. Before 1997, the substantial depreciation of the yen is the East Asian crisis of the fire, the
