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1、2019/8/29,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,1,厦门国家会计学院,财务报表分析新思维 财务报表分析的逻辑切入点,徐国栋 Tel：13656036281 QQ：1103810430 email： 办公室：经A541,2019/8/29,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,2,相关参考书隆重推荐： 财务报表分析：理论框架方法与案例 主编：黄世忠（国家会计学院副院长），中国财经出版社 2007年版，系列丛书： 国家会计学院会计硕士专业学位（MPAcc）系列教材,2019/8/29,Xiamen National
2、Accounting Institute,3,三大 逻辑 切入 点,盈利质量,资产质量,现金流量,收入质量,利润质量,毛利率高低,成长性,退出壁垒,潜在损失,经营现金流量,自由现金流量,波动性,资产结构,现金含量,”造血“功能,还本付息,研发营销,报表分析三大逻辑切入点,2019/8/29,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,4,阐述报表分析的逻辑切入点 案例： M公司与GFC公司哪个更有竞争优势？ 本讲旨在阐明报表分析的常见误区，把握报表分析的逻辑体系,研讨要点与目的,2019/8/29,Xiamen National Accounting Instit
3、ute,5,股票市场表现,2019/8/29,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,6,股票市值(Capitalization),2019/8/29,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,7,四大核心问题 问题1 做大=做强？ 问题2 M公司与GFC公司孰优孰劣？孰强孰弱？ 问题3 M公司与GFC公司股票市值的反差原因何在？ 问题4 如何评价M公司与GFC公司的业绩？,考倒全世界顶级MBA的难题,2019/8/29,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,8,经营规模-雇员人数,2019/
4、8/29,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,9,经营规模-资产总额,2019/8/29,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,10,经营规模销售收入,2019/8/29,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,11,经营规模CFFOA(现金流量 ),2019/8/29,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,12,股票市值(Capitalization),2019/8/29,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,13
5、,财务实力净资产,2019/8/29,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,14,经营绩效净利润,2019/8/29,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,15,财务数据：GFC v.s M (2002),新经济与旧经济的反差 行业层面的解释市盈率分析,2019/8/29,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,16,盈利质量,现金流量,资产质量,财务报表分析的三大逻辑切入点,2019/8/29,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,17,三大 逻辑 切
6、入 点,盈利质量,资产质量,现金流量,收入质量,利润质量,毛利率高低,成长性,退出壁垒,潜在损失,经营现金流量,自由现金流量,波动性,资产结构,现金含量,”造血“功能,还本付息,研发营销,报表分析三大逻辑切入点,2019/8/29,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,18,盈利质量,收入质量,利润质量,毛利率,成长性,波动性,研发营销,盈利质量分析方法,2019/8/29,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,19,收入质量(Quality of Revenue),2019/8/29,Xiamen National Ac
7、counting Institute,20,收入质量(Quality of Revenue),2019/8/29,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,21,利润质量(Quality of Profit),2019/8/29,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,22,利润质量(Quality of Profit),2019/8/29,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,23,Microsoft Settlement 反垄断诉讼费用 (Antitrust suit filed in 1
8、998, settled in 2001),2019/8/29,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,24,经营业绩:2005 vs. 2004,2019/8/29,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,25,2006:艰难的转折?,Chrysler Group 2006 Operating Loss $15 2007 total Loss $29.2 May 15,2007 sold for $74 May 10, 1998 bought for $360,2007: -$387 2008Q3: -$213,SE as
9、of the end of 2008Q3 GM:-599; Ford: -20,2008Q3 -$87,2019/8/29,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,26,毛利率(Gross Profit Margin),2019/8/29,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,27,M公司的成本费用结构,3 E Strategy Embrace, Extend, Extinguish,2019/8/29,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,28,R & D 占销售收入比重,2006年22
10、48家企业集团R&D占比1.1%,GM2003-2005 3.33%; 3.34%; 3.47%,2019/8/29,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,29,成本结构与风险传导,资产质量,资产结构,现金含量,退出壁垒,经营风险,财务弹性,潜在损失,资产质量分析方法,技术风险,2019/8/29,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,30,资产质量(Quality of Assets)(2001),2019/8/29,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,31,资产质量(Quality
11、 of Assets)(2002),2019/8/29,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,32,资产质量(Quality of Assets)(2003),2019/8/29,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,33,资产质量(Quality of Assets)(2004),2019/8/29,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,34,资产质量(Quality of Assets)(2005),2019/8/29,Xiamen National Accounting Insti
12、tute,35,如何解释市净率?,13.1,5.5,5.8,3.4,0.67,2019/8/29,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,36,品牌价值,2019/8/29,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,37,被忽略的“软资产”,2019/8/29,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,38,何为风险? Risk is uncertainty 风险的类别 经济风险(Economic Risk) 环境风险(经济条件、政治及社会环境） 市场风险（市场结构、企业竞争优势） 经营风险（Op
13、erational Risk) 固定成本与变动成本比例 财务风险（Financial Risk) 资本结构与金融市场利率,营业风险 Business Risk,利润易变性 Profit Volatility,传 导,传 导,成本结构与风险传导,2019/8/29,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,39,+5% +14% +18% -5% -14% -18% 经济风险 经营风险 营业风险 财务风险,经济状况 政治社会环境,销售 收入,息税前 利润,税后 利润,市场结构 竞争优势,风险的传导与放大,2019/8/29,Xiamen National Acco
14、unting Institute,40,XYZ公司风险评估测算表,风险传导放大效应,2019/8/29,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,41,现金流量,经营现金流量,自由现金流量,“造血”功能,还本付息,现金流量分析方法,2019/8/29,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,42,现金流量表的“妙用”,经营活动产生的现金流量,投资活动产生的现金流量,筹资活动产生的现金流量,造血功能,抽血功能,输血功能,现金流量表经常被忽略的报表,2019/8/29,Xiamen National Accounting Insti
15、tute,43,广义的自由现金流量 FCF = 经营性现金流量-资本支出 用于评估还本付息和股利支付的能力 狭义的自由现金流量 FCF = 经营性现金流量-资本支出-现金股利 用于评估企业的财务弹性 利用市场机遇和应对市场逆境的能力 用于评估企业依靠内部现金资源谋求发展的能力,CFFOA vs. Free Cash Flow,2019/8/29,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,44,现金流量趋势:G (12 vs. 73),2007 CF-O:77;CF-CE:75 Int.:29; P:1844,2019/8/29,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,45,2005.12.13,Cut 30,000 jobs Close 9 facilities By 2008 (2005.11.21) Share $19.85 (2005.12.20) Lowest in 23 years,GM-不断恶化的信用等级,2019/8/29,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,46,GM vs. Toyota,2008.11.7 GM: 27 TM: 1052,2019/8/29,Xiamen Nationa
