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1、摘要摘要房地产业是国民经济的重要组成部分，其基础性、先导性产业的地位和特征对经济增长发挥着巨大的作用，因此国家一直引导和促进着房地产业持续稳定健康发展。如今在“振兴东北”这个良好经济氛围下，长春市房地产投资从2000年以来，一直保持着较高的增速，呈现出迅猛的发展势头。绝大多数房地产项目建设规模大，开发周期长，为了规避投资中的各种风险，获得最大收益，发挥项目对经济的拉动作用，对其进行可行性研究显得尤为重要。本论文以地处原长春税务学院的“长春市CBD房地产项目”为研究对象。考虑到本项目规模之大，投入资金多，论文综合运用了市场营销学、房地产经济学、财务管理学和项目财务评价等多种学科的理论和方法，并按
2、房地产可行性研究的标准形式书写，全文共分为十六章。在市场分析中，通过对该项目的宏观环境分析、长春市区域投资环境近期描述与发展趋势分析、市内商品房的供给与需求分析、周边区域竞争对手分析，确立了该项目的市场定位，明确了该项目的目标客户、产品形态以及价格策略并为成本和收入估算提供了详实的基础数据。在项目的建设地点与开发条件分析中，根据项目交通及公共设施条件、周边环境，对其进行了S.W.O.T分析，客观评价了项目的现状与发展潜力。在成本和收入估算中，运用市场比较法对“长春市CBD房地产项目”各产品的成本价格进行了预测，为项目的最终定价准备了科学依据。在财务评价中，根据项目的投资计划以及资金安排表，运用
3、现金流量表、盈亏平衡分析及敏感性分析等数学方法和模型，对“长春市CBD房地产项目”的盈利能力、清偿能力和不确定性进行了评价。在此基础上，进行了风险分析，明确了项目的主要风险因素，提出了防范和降低风险的措施；同时，在项目的社会评价中，通过对项目的社会影响分析及互适性分析，明确了项目的社会效益。 通过对“长春市CBD房地产项目”进行的可行性研究，测算得出项目总投资101543.2万元。项目的全部投资财务净现值为46205万元，全部投资内部收益率为74.6%，资本金内部收益率为84.34%，投资利润率为24%，资本金利润率为76.1%，动态投资回收期2.2年。因此，该项目在财务上可行，实施起来的风险
4、较小，社会效益较大，可以进行投资。 关键词 房地产；可行性研究；财务评价；风险分析Abstract Real estate industry of the national economy and an important component of its foundation, leading industry position and the characteristics of economic growth play a tremendous role. Therefore, the state has to guide and promote a sustained, stable
5、and healthy real estate development. Now in revitalizing the northeast good economic climate, the Changchun municipal real estate investment since 2000， has always maintained a high growth rate, showing a rapid development momentum. The vast majority of real estate projects are large in scale, long
6、development cycle, in order to avoid the investment risk and maximize revenue Item play in boosting the economy, its feasibility study is particularly important. In this paper, this is located at the former Changchun Institute of Taxation of the Changchun City CBD real estate projects for the study.
7、 Taking into account the magnitude of the project and invested more comprehensive use of the papers of Marketing, real estate economics, financial management and project financial evaluation of a multi-disciplinary theories and methods, together with a real estate feasibility study standard form of
8、written text is divided into 15 chapters. In the market analysis, project analysis of the macroeconomic environment, Changchun City regional investment environment in recent description and analysis of the development trends, the citys commercial housing supply and demand analysis, analysis of the s
9、urrounding regional competitors, the establishment of the projects market position, clear of the project target customers, form products and pricing strategies for cost and revenue estimates provided detailed basic data. Construction of the project location and the conditions for the development of
10、analysis, based on the project and public transport facilities for the surrounding environment, S.W.O.T. conducted its analysis and objective evaluation of the project status and potential for development. The cost and revenue estimates, market comparison of the Changchun City CBD real estate projec
11、ts, the cost of the product for the price forecast for the final pricing prepare a scientific basis. In the financial evaluation, according to the investment plans and financing arrangements for the table, using cash flow statement and sensitivity analysis methods and mathematical models, Changchun
12、City CBD real estate projects, the profitability, liquidity and uncertainty of the evaluation. On this basis, conducted a risk analysis of the projects main risk factors, the prevention and risk reduction measures; At the same time, the social evaluation, Based on the social impact analysis and an a
13、nalysis of each other, clearly the social benefits of the project. Through the Changchun City CBD real estate projects in the feasibility study, calculate the total investment reached 1.015432 billion yuan. The net present value of all the financial investment of 462.05 million yuan investment, inte
14、rnal rate of return of 74.6%. Capital internal rate of return of 84.34%, investment profit rate of 24% and capital returns of 76.1% Dynamic investment payback period 2.2 years. Therefore, the project is financially feasible, the implementation of the risk of smaller, more social benefits, they can m
15、ake investments. Keywords real estate ；financial ；evaluation of the feasibility ；study of risk analysis V目录目录摘要IAbstractIII目录I第1章 绪论- 1 -第2章 总论- 3 -2.1 项目背景- 3 -2.1.1 项目名称- 3 -2.1.2 项目性质- 3 -2.1.3 项目承办单位名称及概况- 3 -2.1.4 可行性研究报告的编制依据- 3 -2.1.5 项目提出的理由与过程- 4 -2.2 项目概况- 5 -2.2.1 建设地点介绍- 5 -2.2.2 建设规模- 5
16、 -2.2.3 投资及融资方案- 5 -2.3 评价与结论- 6 -2.3.1 主要技术经济指标表- 6 -2.3.2 可行性研究结论- 7 -第3章 市场研究- 9 -3.1 投资环境分析- 9 -3.1.1 国家宏观政策对房地产市场的影响- 9 -3.1.2 长春市区域环境分析- 10 -3.1.3 长春市房地产近期市场的描述- 13 -3.2 供求分析- 17 -3.2.1 长春市房地产商品房近年来开发情况统计- 17 -3.2.2 长春市写字楼和商铺销售市场分析- 18 -3.2.3 长春房地产市场发展趋势- 21 -3.2.4 目标市场- 24 -3.2.5 本项目竞争对手分析- 26 -3.2
