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1、上海海事大学硕士学位论文 BOT模式应用于港口建设的风险管理研究摘 要BOT模式是一种应用于基础设施建设和运营的新型项目融资模式，因为它能缓解政府建设和维护基础设施资金不足的问题，并且能提高管理效率，故在我国有着广泛的应用前景。BOT模式是一项复杂的系统工程，其潜在的风险也相当巨大，要成功的运作BOT项目，就必须全盘考虑项目中的风险问题。本文结合港口建设的实际情况，根据BOT模式的特点，运用项目管理、风险管理、技术经济学等理论和方法，对港口建设BOT项目的风险，从风险识别、风险度量和风险防范三方面进行了全面深入的分析研究。在风险识别中，本文首先分析研究了采用BOT模式进行港口工程项目建设时所能
2、遇到的风险因素，并对这些风险因素进行了系统的归类，将这些常见风险分为自然风险、社会风险、政治风险、经济风险、管理风险、建造风险和法律风险七大类，然后对每一类的风险的具体表现作了进一步的分析，最后根据这些港口建设风险的特点，找到了一些有效的风险识别方法。在风险度量中，本文在分析和总结传统的定性、定量风险评价方法的基础上，针对港口建设BOT项目的风险特点以及其特有的技术经济特征，本文应用了“多层次模糊分析法”对风险进行度量，该方法是层次分析法和模糊综合评价法的有机结合，比较适合港口建设BOT项目的风险评价，它考虑了港口建设BOT项目风险的复杂性和模糊性，很好的结合了风险定性研究和定量分析的方法，能
3、够比较准确的度量出BOT项目的风险程度，为准确度量港口建设BOT项目的风险找到了一种有效的评价方法。在风险防范方面，主要是结合港口建设BOT项目风险的特点，重点研究了各种风险因素的防范控制方法，主要包括：风险防范的基本方法，风险分担的原则，风险防范的具体措施，项目各参与方的风险管理等内容。本部分首先系统完整的研究了港口建设BOT项目中常见的风险因素的防范和控制，这些防范措施不但有风险的事前防范研究，还包括风险的事后处置方法研究，为工程项目的全面风险管理提供了帮助。最后，论文还就各项目参与方所能面临的风险进行了专门的分析研究，并为其提出了切实可行的风险控制和防范方法。本文旨在结合BOT模式的风险
4、管理思想，探讨BOT模式应用于港口建设时所能面临的风险，以及如何准确度量和有效防范这些风险，并形成一套系统完整的港口建设BOT项目的风险管理方案，以期为将来的港口建设BOT项目风险管理者提供一些有用的理论工具和管理参考。关键词：BOT模式，港口建设，风险管理，模糊综合评价法，层次分析法ABSTRACTBOT approach is mostly applied to the infrastructure construction. Now it has been brought into the field of infrastructure construction by the Chine
5、se government, because it can solve the problem of the money shortage and the management inefficiency. At the same time, the risks of BOT project are so complicated and intricate that it is urgent and necessary to study the risks of it.According to the characteristics of BOT project and the actual c
6、onditions of port construction, this paper probes into risk identification, risk measurement and risk avoidance in the BOT project of port construction with the help of methods, such as project management, risk management, technical economics and so on. In the study of risk identification, this pape
7、r firstly analyses and studies the risk factors that can be meet when the port building project adopts the BOT approach to build, and then sorts these risks into seven categories such as natural risk , social risk , political risk , economic risk , management risk , building risk and legal risk. Aft
8、er this, this paper gives further analysis to all of these risk factors, and puts forward some effective risk identification methods.In the study of risk measurement, this paper firstly summarizes the traditional risk measurement methods, and then, according to the characteristics of risks of port b
9、uilding BOT project, this paper find an effective risk measurement way called multi-level fuzzy analytic approach. This approach is very suitable for the risk measurement of the port building BOT project. It combines the qualitative analysis and quantitative study method and it also considers the co
10、mplexity and fuzzy characteristics of risks of the port building BOT project. So it can accurately measure the risk degrees of the port building BOT project.In the study of risk avoidance, this paper mainly studies the risk avoidance methods for all the BOT risks according to the characteristics of
11、risks of port building BOT project. This part mainly includes: the traditional risk avoidance methods, the principles of risk allocation, the concrete and feasible risk avoidance measures, etc. The part first studies the risk avoidance for the familiar risk factors of the port building BOT project s
12、ystematically. These risk avoidance measures not only include the aftertreatment, but also the avoidance methods in advance. This paper wants to put forward some feasible and effective risk avoidance ways for the risk administrator of the BOT project.The intention of this paper is to probe into the
13、risks of the port building BOT project. After study, this paper have found some feasible and effective risk avoidance measures and finally formed a series of systemic and integrated risk management scheme for the BOT project. I hope this paper can offer some useful theory tools and Management consul
14、tations to the risk administrator of the port building BOT project. Kong fanfu (Accounting)Supervised by Professor Shao Ruiqing Doctor Yang JirongKEYWORDS: BOT approach, port construction, risk management, Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation, Analytic Hierarchy Process目 录引 言1第一章 BOT投融资方式概述41.1BOT投融资方式的起源
15、及其在我国的发展41.2BOT投融资方式的特点及其用于项目建设的优缺点51.3BOT工程项目的参与主体及其运作过程7第二章 港口建设应用BOT模式的可行性分析112.1港口的概念与范围112.2港口建设项目的技术经济特征112.3 港口建设投融资政策的沿革分析132.4我国港口建设取得的成就与存在的问题分析152.5BOT模式应用于港口建设的可行性分析17第三章 BOT模式应用于港口建设的风险分析213.1风险的内涵及分类213.2风险识别方法223.3港口建设BOT项目的风险种类及其来源分析233.4港口建设BOT项目各参与方的风险变化规律31第四章BOT模式应用于港口建设的风险度量研究324.1风险度量概述324.2工程项目中常用的风险度量方法334.3应用多层次模糊分析法度量港口建设BOT项目的风险40第五章 BOT模式应用于港口建设的风险防范研究485.1风险防范概述485.2风险防范的基本方法495.3风险分担的原则515.4港口建设BOT项目风险防范的具体措施555.5港口建设BOT项目各参与方的风险管理61第六章结 论66致 谢67参考文献68引 言一、论文的选题背景和研究目
