《企业管理中的竞争问题概述》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《企业管理中的竞争问题概述（43页珍藏版）》请在金锄头文库上搜索。
1、1,企业管理中的竞争问题,董志勇 博士 副教授 中国人民大学经济学院,职业经理人资格中国最具价值的三大证书之一 CCMC与企业管理,2,个人简介 -中国人民大学经济学院院长助理 副教授 经济学博士 -2008年北京奥运会特许商品调查委员会首席专家 -2008年北京奥运会旅游纪念品调查研究首席专家 -欧美同学会会员（1998年） -中国宝鸡外国语学院客座教授(1999年) -新加坡华夏学院学术委员会委员(2001年) -欧洲维多利亚大学客座教授（2002年） -亚洲发展银行青年组专家(Young Economist of ADB)（2002年） -清华大学继续教育学院客座教授（2003年） -吉
2、林电力高级经济顾问（2002年） -吉林白城市人民政府经济顾问（2003年） -国联股份高级顾问（2003年） -中国人民大学侨联副主席（2004年） -中国井冈山干部学院兼职教授（2005年）,3,博弈论和策略行为 Game Theory & Strategic Behaviors,4,Lecture Plan/本讲计划,Game Theory Strategy & Payoff Matrix Dominant & Dominated Strategies Nash Equilibrium Maximin Strategy & Mixed Strategy Strategic Behavio
3、r,5,Elements of a Game,Game has the following elements: Players: who is involved? Rules: who moves when? What do they know when they move? What can they do? Outcomes: for each possible set of actions by the layers, which is the outcome of the game Payoffs: what are the players preferences over the p
4、ossible outcome?,6,Strategy & Payoffs,博弈论把人间一切竞争活动看成是玩策略游戏。这种策略游戏是在一定的游戏规则之下进行 它的两个最基本的概念是策略与支付矩阵 一种策略(Strategy)表示游戏参与者的一套运作计划和手段。如“降价15%”就是一种策略 收益矩阵(Payoff matrix)是表示游戏参与者在各种不同策略下的利润额的一套支付表格 寡头垄断，尤其是双寡头垄断竞争，特别适合使用博弈论研究,7,Strategy & Payoffs,Prisoners Dilemma(囚犯两难) 两个嫌犯被捕并受到指控，但除非至少一人招供犯罪，警方并无充分证据将其按
5、罪判刑 警方将他们分开审讯（不能沟通），并对他们说明不同行动带来的后果。 如果二人都不坦白，只能判简单刑事罪，坐牢1个月 如果二人都坦白，两人都会定罪，判刑六个月； 如果其中一个坦白，另一个不坦白；那么坦白者马上释放（从宽）、不坦白者将会判刑九个月。 请问两个嫌犯该怎么办？,8,Strategy & Payoffs,Prisoners Dilemma(囚犯两难) 策略(Strategy): “沉默” & “招认” 收益矩阵(Payoff Matrix)如下：,9,Strategy & Payoffs,Prisoners Dilemma(囚犯两难) 囚犯两难的问题在现实中常常出现。 比如两家企业
6、的价格战。,10,Strategy & Payoffs,性别战博弈 (The Battle of Sex) 一男一女试图安排一个晚上的娱乐内容 选择（策略）：“歌剧”、“拳击”；不过男女有别 收益矩阵(Payoff Matrix)如下：,11,12,Strategy & Payoffs,Other Examples Coordination games Smith and Jones are trying to decide whether to design the computers they sell to use large or small floppy disks Both pla
7、yers will sell more computers if their disk drives are compatible. Strategies: “Large” or “Small” Payoffs are as follows.,13,Strategy & Payoffs,Other Examples Coordination games: payoff matrix,14,Dominant Strategies (支配策略),We say a player has a dominant strategy if it is the strictly best response t
8、o any strategies the other players might pick. In the analysis of any game, the first step is to determine if any player has a dominant strategy. If such a strategy exists, then the outcome of the game should be easily determined, since the player will use the dominant strategy and other players wil
9、l subsequently adopt their best responses. Examples: Does the Prisoners Dilemma have any dominant strategy? How about the Coordination Game?,15,Dominated Strategies (被支配策略),A dominated strategy is an alternative that yields a lower payoff than some other strategy, no matter what the other players in
10、 the game do. A rational player will never use a dominated strategy in the actual action of game playing. Hence it can be eliminated. It is clear that if the existence of a dominant strategy implies that all other choices are in fact the dominated strategies. But it is possible that there are domina
11、ted strategies, while there is no dominant strategy,16,Application: Iterative Eliminations,Example,17,Nash Equilibrium (纳什均衡),Even though using a dominant strategy or a dominated strategy is a powerful simple way of “solving” a game, this kind of game is usually an exception, instead of a norm. We m
12、ust have a generic method of finding the solution(s) of a game. Solution Concepts Nash Equilibrium is the very first solution concept for non-cooperative games.,18,Nash Equilibrium (纳什均衡),Essence of Nash Equilibrium A Nash Equilibrium is defined as a set of strategies such that non of the participan
13、ts in the game can improve their payoff, given the strategies of the other participants. No one has a strictly incentive to deviate from the strategies in a Nash Equilibrium.,19,Nash Equilibrium (纳什均衡),Example Consider the following game. Is there any dominant or dominated strategy?,20,Nash Equilibr
14、ium (纳什均衡),Problem of Nash Equilibrium: Multiple solutions! Examples: Battle of Sex Coordination Game,21,Nash Equilibrium (纳什均衡),Problem of Nash Equilibrium: Insensitive to extreme payoffs (risks) Example: Dangerous Coordination Game,In Practice, it is almost sure that Smith wants to “play safe” and
15、 never try “large”!,22,Nash Equilibrium (纳什均衡),Problem of Nash Equilibrium: Non-existence of pure strategy Nash Equilibrium Example: Match the Pennies No dominant strategy, no dominated strategy & no pure strategy Nash equilibrium as well!,23,Nash Equilibrium (纳什均衡),Mixed Strategies （混合策略） A mixed s
16、trategy is a profile that specifies the probability of each pure strategy that is to be played. Nash Theorem: For any game with finite number of pure strategies, there always exists a Nash Equilibrium in mixed strategy form.,24,Nash Equilibrium (纳什均衡),Mixed Strategies （混合策略）: Examples Coordination Game Jones plays (Large, Small) according to (p, 1-p) Smiths expected payoffs are: “Large”: 2p+(-1)(1-p) = US(L |(p, 1-p) “Small”:
