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1、上海理工大学本科生毕业设计（论文）美国次贷危机及其金融运行模式的反思摘 要美国次贷危机愈演愈烈，不仅让欧美投资者损失惨重，也对我国经济产生了一定冲击。这是在经济全球化背景下发生的又一个重大金融惨案。深入分析危机形成和发展的原因，研究应对的措施总结经验教训，是我国金融业的一项迫在眉睫的任务。特别是现在，次贷危机的余波正蔓延到了欧盟国家，导致了如今的主权债务危机，我们要清醒的认识到危机远没有过去，这就要求我们要对危机做到了解、熟悉、借鉴、防范。 本文从次贷危机的形成环境和特点出发深层研究和分析次贷危机的成因。并在此基础上剖析此次次贷危机的传导机制。同时结合危机在时下的最新发展动态，分析次贷危机和现
2、在主权债务危机之间的联系。展望和预测危机对中国经济的影响。在理论探讨的同时结合实证分析总结出金融危机对我国经济体制改革的启示，探索次贷危机对我国金融业的经验教训。论文由四大部分组成，第一部分，美国次贷危机的深层成因探析。本章以次贷危机发展和演变的环境和特点为切入点结合西方经济学主流理论为基础，分析次贷危机形成和发展的深层次原因。揭秘次贷危机的真相。第二部分，次贷危机的风险传导机制。本章是在第二章的基础上进一步剖析次贷危机传导的整个过程。分别从次贷危机的内部传导、外部传导和危机全球的蔓延现状三个方面研究次贷危机的传导机制。第三部分，次贷危机的后续影响。本章主要是结合次贷危机最新的发展做时兴的研究
3、和分析。次贷危机和现在的主权债务危机并不是好不相关的，应该说主权债务危机是次贷危机的“续集”他们中间有什么内在的联系。主权债务危机又对中国经济有什么影响。这些都是这章中所要解释的重点。第四部分，次贷危机对我国的启示。这章也是本文的目的和意义所在，研究和分析次贷危机的原因正是为了从中得到经验和教训。由于前几章中在理论及实证分析的时候也会总结次贷危机的经验和教训。本章将会从着重从我国信贷风险管理，房地产市场和次贷规模三方面讨论得出的启示。关键词：次级贷款，到期未付率，主权债务危机，实体经济，信贷风险管理。33U.S. subprime crisis and its reflection of th
4、e financial operation mode ABSTRACTU.S. subprime mortgage crisis intensified, not only for Europe and the United States investor losses, also produced a certain impact on our economy. This is against the backdrop of economic globalization, another major financial tragedy. Depth analysis of the reaso
5、ns for the formation and development crisis, research on coping in Cuoshi summary of lessons learned, is Chinas financial industry in a pending task. Especially now, the aftermath of the subprime crisis is spreading to the EU countries, led to todays sovereign debt crisis, we need a clear understand
6、ing of the crisis is far from the past, and this requires us to do about the crisis, are familiar with, learn, prevention . This article from the subprime mortgage crisis environment and the characteristics of the formation of deep research and analysis of the causes of the subprime crisis. And on t
7、his basis, and on the sub-prime crisis transmission mechanism. Crisis combined with the latest developments in nowadays, analyzing the sub-prime crisis and now the link between the sovereign debt crisis. Prospects and forecasts the impact of the crisis on Chinas economy. While in theory with empiric
8、al analysis of summed up the financial crisis on Chinas economic reform inspiration, exploring the sub-prime crisis on Chinas financial industry experience. Paper consists of four major components.The first part, the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis of the deeper causes. Subprime Lending Crisis chapter
9、 development and evolution of the environment and the characteristics of the mainstream Western economics as the entry point combination based on the theory of formation and development of the subprime crisis deep-seated reasons. Jie Mi truth of the subprime crisis.The second part of the risk of the
10、 subprime crisis transmission mechanism. This chapter is based on the second chapter to further analyze the sub-prime Crisis and the whole process. Separately from the transmission inside the sub-prime crisis, external transmission and spread of the crisis situation around the world three of the sub
11、-prime crisis transmission mechanism.The third part of the follow-up impact of the subprime crisis. This chapter is a combination of the latest developments in the subprime crisis fashionable to do the research and analysis. The mortgage crisis and sovereign debt crises are not better off either rel
12、evant, should be said that sovereign debt crisis is the subprime crisis, a sequel to what they are intrinsically linked to the middle. Sovereign debt crisis is what impact the Chinese economy. These are explained in this chapter to be the focus. The fourth part, the subprime crisis on China. This ch
13、apter is also the purpose and significance of this article, research and analysis of the reasons for the subprime crisis is in it for the experience and lessons learned. As the previous chapters in the theoretical and empirical analysis when the subprime mortgage crisis will sum up experiences and l
14、essons learned. This chapter will be from the focus on credit risk management from our real estate market and the size of three to discuss the sub-prime draw inspiration. KEYWORDS: subprime loans, overdue rates, sovereign debt crisis, the real economy, credit risk management目 录摘 要1ABSTRACT2第一章 绪论11.
15、1 研究背景及意义11.2 研究内容2第二章 美国次贷危机深层成因探析42.1 美国次贷危机形成背景42.1.1 次贷危机的特点42.1.2 次贷相关的金融衍生品52.1.3 美国次贷危机的市场表现62.2 美国次贷危机的深层成因分析72.2.1 利率变化和住房市场的持续降温72.2.2 高风险的金融运行模式92.2.3 经济全球化加剧了危机的传导102.2.3 金融系统自身的脆弱性11第三章 次贷危机的风险传导机制研究133.1 次贷危机风险内部传导机制研究133.2 次贷危机的外部传导机制研究143.3 次贷危机的全球蔓延和最新发展状况研究分析163.3.1 危机最新动态分析163.3.2
16、 经济出现两次探底的可能性研究17第四章 次贷危机的后续影响分析194.1 从次贷危机到主权债务危机194.2 次贷危机与主权债务危机的联系204.2.1 次贷危机是主权债务危机的直接诱因204.2.2 欧元区制度缺陷是内因214.2.3 美国信用评级机构对主权债务危机影响分析224.3 主权债务危机的传导机制分析及展望244.4 主权债务危机对中国的影响分析25第五章 次贷危机对我国的启示295.1 对信贷风险管理的启示295.1.1金融创新必须符合市场规律295.1.2贷前尽职调查295.1.3注重第一还款来源305.2美国次级房贷运行模式对我国房产市场启示305.2.1房地产市场的发展模式需要反思30
