《技术经济学英文版演示文稿C1课件》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《技术经济学英文版演示文稿C1课件（69页珍藏版）》请在金锄头文库上搜索。
1、CHAPTER 1 DECISION MAKING 1.1 Decision Making Process 1.2 Interaction Among Various Steps 1.3 Economic Terminology,1.1 Decision Making Process Economic decisions go hand in hand with technical decisions in the petroleum industry. Each decision is associated with several steps. In most instances, we
2、need to understand these steps before we can determine the feasibility of a project.,Starting from whether to explore （勘探）for oil and gas, the economic decisions become an integral part of the project. The first decision may be whether to sign an agreement to acquire a concession（让步）on a lease（租约）.
3、An associated decision would be how much of a signing bonus (签字定金)needs to be paid.,Also, what types of additional commitments(义务) such as work programs and future drilling activities are made. In the next step, if a concession is acquired, one needs to decide if additional geological （地质学的）or geoph
4、ysical（地球物理学的） data needs to be gathered before drilling a well.,If sufficient data are available, where should the first well be drilled. If the well is successful, We need to decide if the hydrocarbon reserves are in sufficient economic quantities to justify additional drilling and exploitation（开采
5、）.,After finding hydrocarbons and knowing that they can be produced in economic quantities, we first need to decide whether to develop or sell to another party. If we decide to develop, we need to consider the decisions during the production phase. .,Starting from the type of drilling technique we n
6、eed to use, we need to make decisions associated with the well completion techniques（完井技术), surface separation equipment, the piping(管道） and tubing（油管） requirements and the rate of production. These factors are further compounded by the changing economics of oil and gas prices over which the produce
7、r may not have any control.,The economic decisions continue throughout the producing life of the project. Once the production begins smoothly, we will have to worry about the possibilities of secondary（二次） and tertiary （三次)oil recovery techniques, drilling of in-fill wells(加密井）, and the implementati
8、on of artificial lift techniques. .,Not to mention, the production scenario(方案) can be significantly affected by changing government regulations either related to production quotas（配额） or to the environmental and political concerns. During the same time, knowing that the present reserves are going t
9、o last over a finite period, we will have to make decisions related to future acquisition and leasing of onshore and offshore lands.,As discussed, the decision making process is cyclical（循环的） and continues throughout the perpetual existence of the oil company. Although we have only discussed the dec
10、isions related to the exploration and production of the hydrocarbons. it should be remembered that the refining and processing of hydrocarbons also involves several decisions. We need to understand the procedures involved in any of these decisions.,Our objective in this course is to understand the e
11、conomic principles related to exploration and production of hydrocarbons and study the economic evaluation process in the presence of uncertainty. In achieving this objective, one should realize that although a single answer to any question is desirable and often warranted, in many realistic situati
12、ons, it is very difficult to obtain a unique（唯一的） answer.,We will first concentrate on obtaining a single answer using basic economic principles. We will then review the procedures involved in quantifying uncertainties in an economic evaluation process. Once the uncertainties in making a certain dec
13、ision are clearly identified, the decision maker will be aware(知道) of the consequences(因果关系) of the final decision.,In this chapter, we will discuss the decision making process in economic analysis. Many of the steps in this decision making process will be expanded in the subsequent chapters.,1.1 De
14、cision Making Process Any decision making process has to be a rational, well informed process. It should be consistent with the available information and the constraints imposed. Unlike playing a card game or gambling, intuitive deductions(直觉推论) or gut feeling(内情) are rarely useful in making an obje
15、ctive decision related to economic evaluation. The steps involved in such rational economic decision are as follows:,1.1.1 Recognition of Problem(问题识别） Recognition of problem includes defining the problem at hand, its importance, and associated uncertainties and risks dealing with such a problem.,As
16、 an example, typical problems faced in the petroleum industry are: * Should you buy a lease or concession? * How many wells need to be drilled? * What production scheme should be applied? * What type of drilling method should be used?,If we can consider the development and exploitation of the petroleum reservoir in a chronological order, the problems we will encounter can be stated as: Will geological/geophysical and surrounding reservoir data locate the reservoir? * Will the wild cat well(
