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1、习题 10（1）北京辉仁制药有限公司正在开发一种用于治疗慢性关节炎疼痛的消炎药必得康。公司对该药的生效时间及其与现存药物阿司匹林之间的比较很感兴趣。公司希望该药的生效时间越短越好。表10-17是必得康和阿司匹林的治疗结果数据，其中变量age、gender、health、treat、dosage、status、time的含义分别为年龄、性别（0-男，1-女）、健康状况（1-差，2-一般，3-好）、治疗方法（0-必得康，1-阿司匹林）、剂量（0-低，1-高）、治疗结果（0-截尾值，1-生效数据）、生效时间（小时）。试用生存分析方法比较二者的治疗效果。agegenderhealthtreatdosa
2、gestatustimeagegenderhealthTreatdosagestatustime54020111.265020015.654010114401210011.264030117.458020003.163031117.337131110.943031107.469021107.767110110.638111012.245120011.953010111.349131012.763031011.359130011.152131015.756011011.337130016.249110007.853121012.460020013.151030011.751030013.6320
3、30012.556121107.240031111.863120017.154021016.652031007.537111010.841130012.642130117.85113111105902111150020002.642031110.930031011.466131106.746131012.860021018.753110014.157031106.155131006.859010011.361130111.634120011.55011001354111003.6表10-17 两种药物的治疗结果数据（time数据原稿有错）解：操作步骤：1.Analyze Survival Ka
4、plan-Meier；2.选择time变量为时间变量，选择status为状态变量，点击Define Event按钮，数值1表示该数据是生效数据；3.点击Continue，选择treat为因素变量，点击Compare Factor；4.选择Log rank，Breslow，and Tarone-Ware，点击Continue；5.点击Option，选择Statistics选项组中的Quartiles和Plots选项组中的Survival；6.点击OK。结果分析：Case Processing SummaryTreatmentTotal NN of EventsCensoredNPercentNe
5、w drug2421312.5%Existing drug2617934.6%Overall50381224.0%观测量汇总表，从表中给出了观测个案的综述、完全数据个数及截尾数据个数和百分比。Survival TableTreatmentTimeStatusCumulative Proportion Surviving at the TimeN of Cumulative EventsN of Remaining CasesEstimateStd. ErrorNew drug1.600Taken effect.958.04112321.100Taken effect.917.05622231.
6、200Taken effect.875.06832141.300Taken effect.42051.300Taken effect.792.08351961.500Taken effect.750.08861871.600Taken effect.708.09371781.700Taken effect.667.09681691.900Taken effect.625.099915102.500Taken effect.583.1011014112.600Taken effect.542.1021113122.600Censored.1112133.000Taken effect.497.1
7、031211143.100Taken effect.451.1031310153.100Censored.139163.600Taken effect.401.103148174.000Taken effect.351.102157184.100Taken effect.301.099166195.600Taken effect.251.094175206.200Taken effect.201.088184217.100Taken effect.150.079193227.400Taken effect.100.067202237.800Taken effect.050.049211247.
8、800Censored.210Existing drug1.800Taken effect.962.0381252.900Taken effect.2243.900Taken effect.885.06332341.000Taken effect.846.07142251.300Taken effect.52161.300Taken effect.769.08362071.400Taken effect.731.08771981.800Taken effect.692.09181892.200Taken effect.654.093917102.400Taken effect.615.0951
9、016112.700Taken effect.577.0971115122.800Taken effect.538.0981214133.600Censored.1213145.700Taken effect.497.0991312156.100Censored.1311166.600Taken effect.452.0991410176.700Censored.149186.800Censored.148197.200Censored.147207.300Taken effect.387.104156217.400Censored.155227.500Censored.154237.700C
10、ensored.153248.700Taken effect.258.1261622510.000Taken effect.129.1111712611.200Censored.170寿命表，分别给出了新药必得康和旧药阿司匹林的生效时间，包括生存时间Time和Status等信息。Means and Medians for Survival TimeTreatmentMeanaMedianEstimateStd. Error95% Confidence IntervalEstimateStd. Error95% Confidence IntervalLower BoundUpper BoundL
11、ower BoundUpper BoundNew drug3.684.5132.6804.6893.000.6211.7834.217Existing drug5.616.8054.0377.1945.7002.3931.01010.390Overall4.699.5083.7035.6963.100.7711.5894.611a. Estimation is limited to the largest survival time if it is censored.生存时间的平均数、标准误差和95%置信区间。新药的平均估计生存时间是3.684天，而旧药的平均预期生存时间为5.616天，总的平均预期生存时间是4.699天。而中位生存时间中，新药为3天，旧药为5.7天。因此，无论是平均生存时间还是中
