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1、,Matthew Buckland GM: New Media, M&G Online,future web trends innovation series 2007 with jimmy wales,IMG SRC: Flickr,资料PPT中国PPT资源网收集提供,版权归原作者所有,the thing about predictions.,IMG SRC: Flickr,“Computers in the future may weigh no more than 1.5 tons.“ Popular Mechanics, forecasting the relentless marc
2、h of science, 1949,“I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.“ Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943,“640K ought to be enough for anybody.“ Bill Gates, 1981 apocryphal,“There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home.“ Ken Olson, president, chairman and founder of Digita
3、l Equipment Corp., 1977,internet connectivity,Dirt cheap, lightening fast & “always on” internet Computers light, dumb terminals: need net connection to work Most applications web-based for best efficiency,IMG SRC: Flickr,all digital devices will be connected & networked,From your car, radio, phone,
4、 fridge. “always on” An unconnected digital device will be a strange thing WiMax connected sunglasses with voice prompted HUD?,rise of the mobile internet,Rapid improvements in connectivity & screens Mobile to be dominant platform for connecting to net worldwide Japan: happened already (mostly surf
5、web through phones) Voice calls powered by internet & SMS/Texts - IM Cellphones electronic wallets & banks = main method of payment Citizens vote for first time in elections via mobile phones?,rise of individual & entrepreneur,Open source = unprecedented access to code & applications Cheap to create
6、 business online & make own media Teenager in basement same opp. as worker in big company EXAMPLE: New mobile operating system (Android)?,strides against digital divide,Developing world joins digital ecosystem via mobile phones Also become part of economy via cellphone wallet Mobile phones cheap & b
7、roadband ubiquitous Illiteracy issues overcome by video & audio streams Creates new areas of collaboration and education,almost no privacy on the web,Your data will be out there It will be ok because everyone will be in the same boat Seeing already with soc. networking services like FB,the rise of t
8、he virtual universe,Virtual worlds like Second life go mainstream Come to fore as graphic cards & broadband improve Potentially a visual alternative to the world wide web Standards: different worlds connect to each other seamlessly Virtual coup detat by SL citizens? Linden Labs cedes SL to democrati
9、cally elected virtual govt,information pollution & overload,Next big challenge is how to manage masses of information People will complain about “digital fatigue“ & digital noise Focus on developing filters & aggregators “Switch-off“ holidays regularly prescribed by your doctor Rise of anti-digital
10、movements urging “get back to basics” In response to clutter, a second world wide web announced,more googles & facebooks,Google & Facebook finally get good competition Microsoft releases OS code and goes open source MS makes revenue by selling advertising & giving support Advertising is main bus. mo
11、del (connecting sellers & buyers) Facebook becomes a virtual OS/desktop, with MS influence,decline of the nation state?,Govt has less influence & control than ever before Technologies threaten existing power & economic relationships Also: music industry has resisted digital audio and Napster But opp
12、ressive regimes clamp down on internet Some countries regress into dark ages,.and media?,media distribution & production,All media eventually delivered via internet Hardly any specialist print, tv, radio media companies left All fully converged, broadcasting & publishing via the net Media on many di
13、gital platforms,MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA,fragmented media environment,Non-media players become de facto media companies Media world filled with new competitors Cellphone operators, handset makers - media companies Vodacom stop aggregating, start p
14、roducing own content Operators already big media companies (Voda: 1,4m users) Battle between media & cellphone companies looming,MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA,now everyone is a media player,Barrier to entry drops even more dramatically Rise of the read
15、er and the consumer Readers: publishers, broadcasters: competitors & collaborators Small, converged media challenge media conglomerates,MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA,role of media changes,Also content aggregators, facilitators Business model: capture a
16、udience via all means Media companies look to own channels: deals for own phones? Content portals - web applications & services Social networks as well as content hubs,MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA,is this the end of print?,Books, newspapers magazines. Read on flexible digital boards, always connected Websites & digital newspapers become “same thing” Newspapers smaller & niched, but not extinct Newspape
