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1、摘要现阶段我国正处于城市化和工业化加速发展的阶段，能源消费量和温室气体排放量的增长速度较快。我国作为全球碳排放量最大的国家，正面临着越来越大的减排压力，因而发展低碳经济已成我国必然的战略选择。低碳经济的发展必然会对我国的能源结构和产业结构带来相应的改变，进而对我国的就业结构和总量产生影响，这将给我国带来发展经济、扩大就业和减少温室气体排放的多重目标压力。通过对我国碳生产力和主要行业能源强度的分析，判断我国低碳经济发展尚处于起步阶段，而我国的能源消耗和二氧化碳排放量仍将在一段时期内仍将保持较快增长。对主要行业碳就业率的分析发现，三大产业及其内部各行业之间吸纳就业与能源消费的能力具有较大差异，因此
2、在分析低碳经济对就业的影响时应分别考虑。并对实施低碳发展、绿色投资对就业影响的机理的初步研究，表明实施低碳发展对就业的影响可以分为直接效应、间接效应及引致性效应三种方式。在短期内，发展林业和节能减排政策是我国主要的低碳经济行动。利用经验数据和能源的就业弹性系数，分别测算两者对我国林业和工业两个行业就业的影响，计算结果表明我国现行的碳排放控制政策的中短期就业效应总体为负，因此不建议采取过度激进的低碳经济政策，同时在制定低碳经济发展战略时需采取积极的就业促进政策，统筹考虑扩大就业需求。发展低碳经济的过程中，产业结构的调整即要有利于低碳产业优先发展，同时也要保持部分高碳产业与低碳产业的协调发展。加强
3、培训与教育，先行试点、分布推广低碳产业，以在经济发展与低碳转型中寻求最佳结合点以保持经济的持续增长和稳定就业。关键词：低碳经济；就业；节能减排；气候变化IAbstractChina is in the speeding process of industrialization and urbanization right now, withenergy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions growing faster. Holding the largestCarbon emissions in the world, China is facing
4、 increasing pressure to reduce emissions. Soit has been an inevitable strategic choice for it to transform into a low-carbon economycountry. Low-Carbone economy is bound to Chinas energy structure and supposed tobring about certain changes in industrial structure, employment structure and changes in
5、the total production, while along with bringing emissions reduction of the whole country.Through the analysis to our carbon productivity and energy intensity of majorindustries, comes the foresight that the development of Chinas low-carbon economy is stillin its infancy, and moreover, Chinas energy
6、consumption and carbon dioxide emissionswill still maintain a rapid growth in the recent period.The analysis to carbon employmentrate of major industries shows that, the ability of employment absorption and energyconsumption differs massively among and within three major industries, so they should b
7、econsidered separately when it comes to the analysis of low-carbon economys impact onemployment.According to empirical data and the employment elasticity coefficient of energy, herecome respective estimates of impacts on Chinas forestry and industrial employment,which comes from our actions on fores
8、try to address climate change, and energy-savingemission reduction policies. As predicted that, with Chinas current carbon emissioncontrol policy, the short and medium term employment effects turn out negative generally,and therefore over-aggressive, low-carbon economy policy does not get recommende
9、d.Besides, the expansion of employment should be taken into account when the low-carboneconomic development strategies are finally made, and take active employment promotionpolicies along.In the process of developing a low carbon economy, industrial restructuring should beconducive to the preferenti
10、al development of low-carbon industry, while maintainingcoordinated development between some high-carbon industries and low carbon industry.The way to establish pilot projects first, then to promote the distribution of low-carbonindustries is recommended, so that the best combination point between e
11、conomicdevelopment and low-carbon transition can be caught, in order to maintain sustainedeconomic growth and stable employment.Key word: Low-carbon Economy; Employment; Energy saving; Climate changeII目录摘要 . IAbstract . II1引言 . 11.11.21.3研究背景 . 1问题的提出及研究意义. 21.2.1 问题的提出. 21.2.2 理论与现实意义. 2研究思路及创新点. 31.3.1 研究思路. 31.3.2 创新点. 42低碳经济与就业的研究综述 . 52.12.22.3低碳经济理论 . 52.1.1 低碳经济概念. 52.1.2 我国低碳经济转型的机遇. 62.1.3 低碳经济的实现方式. 7就业影响因素的研究. 82.2.1 经济发展对就业的影响. 82.2.2 产业结构变动对就业的影响. 82.2.3 科技进步对就业的影响. 92.2.4 就业量预测的研究. 9发展低碳经济与就业. 102.3.1 发展低碳经济对就业的影响. 102.3.2 发展低碳经济与就业研究的评述
