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1、新疆农业大学硕士学位论文焉耆盆地水资源开发利用综合评价姓名：田林申请学位级别：硕士专业：水文学及水资源导教师：董新光;姜丼芳20060501AbstractAbundant of water and soil，Yanqi Basin, with mild climate, has large areas of fine bulrushes and pasture. Its vast water areas make the resources of water power very plenteous. But from 1950s and 1960s, blindly enlarging t
2、he fields for tilling and excessively irrigating caused rising of the water table of Yanqi Basin, and soil salinization of the irrigated areas. That also leads to acceleration of water salinization, dissent of water level of Bosteng Lake, and deterioration of the environment around the lake. The qua
3、ntity and quality of water in peafowl River cannot be guaranteed thereby.Based on the problems existing during the exploitation and utilization of water resources of Yanqi Basin, by using mathematical modeling, the present thesis quantizes those problems after experts confirmation, and further studi
4、es the exploitation and utilization of water resources of Yanqi Basin.This thesis puts emphasis on the index system and approaches for evaluation of the exploitation and utilization of water resources of that basin. First of all, the concept of water signification and the three stages of the exploit
5、ation and utilization of water expounded. Then the significance of evaluating the exploitation and utilization of ；ertain region； the status quo of the development of society, economy, environment and water resources in Yanqi Basin are elaborated. Grounded on that, referring to the principles of est
6、ablishing the index system of exploitation and utilization of water resources in regions concerned, aiming at the special conditions of Yanqi Basin and the source of statistics, this thesis establishes the index system for evaluation of the exploitation and utilization of water resources of Yanqi Ba
7、sin. This system includes 46 indexes in 4 layers; goal layer, criterion layer, field layer, and index layer. Through multistage fuzzy judge model and analytical hierarchy .the specific percentages of each index in the system, and the grades standard lave been determined. For the basic indexes tenden
8、cy of developing, it can be divided into 5 grades: worst, worse, medium, preferably, and very good, thesis has verified the coherence of judge matrix in AHP after processing statistics with software MATLAB, and educed the status of all indexes in the system after establishing judge matrix with softw
9、are VB. The result shows that the exploitation and utilization of water resources of Yanqi Basin is worse in the weak period of sustainable development, but it is developing towards sustaining.In the end, this thesis analyzes the problems existing in the exploitation and utilization of water resourc
10、es of Yanqi Basin, and then puts forward suggestions and measures to the sustainable economy development mode of Yanqi Basin, referring to the advantages of Yanqi Basins resources, putting emphasis on exploitation and utilization of water resources, aiming at regions sustainable development.Studying
11、 the evaluation index system and approaches, doing quantitative assessment for the status of sustaining of Yanqi Basins water resources can reflect, very roundly and deeply the development level of the basins water resources and its harmony with society, economy, and environment, which has great the
12、oretical and practical values for actualizing the strategy of sustainable utilizing water resources of Yanqi Basin.Key words：water resources, exploitation，index system, AHP, Multistage fuzzy judge model独创性声明本人声明所呈交的论文是我个人在导师指导下进行的研究丄作及取得的研究成果。尽 我所知，除了文中特别加以标注和致谢的地方外，论文中不包含其他人己经发表或撰写过 的研究成果，也不钮含为获得新疆
13、农业大学或其他教育单位的学位或i正书而使用过的材 料。与我一同工作的同志对本研究所做的任何贡献均已在论文中作了明确的说明并表示了研究生签名-时间各年月沪关于学位论文使用授权的说明本人完全了解新疆农业大学有关保留、使用学位论文的规定，即：新疆农业大学有权 保留并向国家有关部门或机构送交论文的复印件和电子文档，可以果用影印、缩印或扫描 等复制手段保存、汇编学位论文，允许论文被查阅和借阅本人授权新疆农业大学将学位 论文的全部或郁分内容编入有关数据库进行检索，可以公布（包括刊登）论文的全部或部 分内容。(保密的学位论文在解密后应遵守此协议）研究生签名：2为:时间：如/年cT月导师签名：时间:年广月s及
14、fl.焉奢盆地水资源开发利用综合评价第一章综述水资源与水资源系统1.1.1水资源是人类生产和生活不可缺少的自然资源，也是生物赖以生存的环境资源和支 撑国民经济健康发展的经济资源。随着水资源短缺在世界范围内的蔓延，水资源成为世 界关注的焦点之一，成为政府、学术界的重要议题。1977年联合国教科文组织（UNESCO)建议“水资源应指可资利用或有可能被利 用的水源，这个水源应具有足够的数量和可用的质量，并能在某一地点为满足某种用途 而可被利用。”然而，水质对于水资源而言，是十分重要的，如果不考虑水质而研究水资源，必将 导致水资源开发利用的失误。近年对水资源的重新界定为：水资源包含水量与水质两个方面，
15、是人类生产生活及 生命生存不可替代的自然资源和环境资源，是在一定的经济技术条件下能够为社会直接 利用或待利用，参与自然界水分循环，影响国民经济的淡水（姜文来等，1995a)。通过重新界定的水资源的概念，人们己经开始重视水资源所具有的自然、社会、经 济、生态环境等属性特征。为了能可持续的开发利用水资源就必须很好的协调水资源各 个属性和特征。必须提醒的是,水资源涵义的范畴是与人类社会发展紧密联系的,随着时间的推移， 人类对水资源的需求量越大，获取水资源的技术越高，则涵义范畴也越开阔。1.1.2水资源系统特征及分类 1.1.2.1水资源系统特征水资源系统是由相互联系相互作用若干要素组成的具有一定功能
16、的影响水资源的 整体。水资源系统概念是系统的概念在水资源中的具体应用，因此水资源系统具有系 统所具有的普遍特征如集合性、整体功能性、可变性等除此之外，水资源系统有其 自身的特征，主要表现在以下几个方面：(1)持续性水资源系统是动植物生存不可缺少的系统之一，人类为了可持续发展，必须通过各 种方式维护水资源系统的相对稳定性，适应人类自身的生存和发展。由于人类对水资源 系统的干预手段和强度不断加强，水资源系统的可持续性受到干扰，必须投入一定人力、 物力和财力才能维护水资源系统的可持续性。维护良好的水资源系统的稳定性，对人类 的发展和经济的持续增长是十分必要的。(2) 自然属性水资源系统的自然属性是由水的自然属性决定的。降水，径流，地下水，土壤水， 蒸发等，都是一个自然过程，无论人类是否干预，干预强度如何，他们都是客观存在的， 不以人的意志为转移的。水资源系统的自然属性，要求我们认识其自然规律
