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1、TECHNOLOGYIts about speed rather than sizeWearegoingagainstconsensuswithourREDUCEcallonMediaTek,as webelieve itsdominanceintheChinahandsetICmarketwillnotbe enoughtodeliverearnings growthin2010.Ourproprietaryanalysisof PCBAcostingsuggestspersistentpricing competitioninthe2GICmarket,withSpreadtrumandp
2、otentiallyMstarundercutting MediaTekby20%ormore,andthis willonlybeexacerbatedbytherapidtake-offof3Ghandsetshipments.Unfortunately,we dontthinkMediaTekwillbenefitfrom3Gmigrationeither,asits3GICsolutionsarenotcompetitiveenough,inourview,likelyStocksforactionWe reiterate our BUY call on BYD Electronics
3、 amid Chinas fast transition into 3G. We downgrade MediaTek to REDUCE fromNeutral given our view that 2010 is a transitionyear for its products.leadingtopatchyproducttransitionandfallingmarketshare.WithaforecastforzeroLocalPriceearningsgrowthforthecompanyin2010,we seeavaluationde-ratingcomingratherS
4、tockTickerRatingpricetargetthanthestreetviewofa3G-drivenre-rating.Wethinkinvestorslookingtoplaythe3G themewouldbebetterofffurtherdownthesupplychain,wherewehaveaBUYrating onBYDElectronics.WeexpectBYDElectronicstogainshareintheTD-SCDMA handsetODMmarket,spurredbyNokiasspeedycommitmenttothetechnology.cO
5、ngoingpricingpressureforICvendorsd2GhandsetICmarket:persistentpricepressuree3GhandsetICmarket:alleyesonTD-SCDMAfMediaTekcuttoREDUCE;BYDElectronicsremainsaBUYBYDElectronics 285HKBUY 6.32 8.37MediaTek2454TTREDUCE529400Downgrading from NeutralPricing date 22February,2010AnalystAaronJeng,CFA+Companysect
6、ion contributorChitraGopal,CFA+Nomura AnchorReports examine the key themes and value drivers that underpin our sector views and stock recommendations forthe next 6 to 12 months.Anyauthors named on this report are research analysts unless otherwise indicated.See the important disclosures and analyst
7、certifications on pages 38to 40.A N C H O RR E P O R T TECHNOLOGYActionMediaTeks2GIC willseecontinuedpricingpressure,inourview,frombothdirect competitionandthefastmigrationto3G.Also,Chinasfasttransitionto3Glooks negativeforMediaTekintheinitialone-twoyears,sinceitssolutionsarearguably notcompetitive.
8、BYDElectronicsislikelytoexpanditsshareoftheTDSCDMA handsetODMmarket,owingtoNokiasgrowingcommitmenttoTDSCDMA.aCatalystsIn2010F,potentialcatalystsarerisingASPpressureinthe2GICmarketandChinasfasttransitionto3G.StocksforactionWe reiterate our BUY call on BYD Electronics amid Chinas fast transition into
9、3G. We downgrade MediaTek to REDUCE from Neutral, given our viewthat 2010 is likelyto be a transitionyear for its products.LocalPriceStockTickerRatingpricetargetAnchorthemesWithintensifyingcompetitioninChinas2GICmarketandChinasrapidtransitionto3G,companiesthatcanbenefitfrom(oravoid)pricecompetitioni
10、n2Gchipsand growmarketsharewiththetransitionto3Gwilllikelybe winnersinthesupplychain,butalsoviceversa.Its about speed rather than sizecOngoingpricingpressureforICvendorsWhile3Ghandsetsaresettotakeofffrom2010onwards,pricecompetitioninthe2GICmarketisrising.Ironically,Chinastransitionto3Gisonereasonfor
11、greater pricingpressureinthe2GICmarket.Companiesthatcanbenefitfrom(oravoid) pricecompetitionin2Gchipsandgrowmarketsharewiththetransitionto3G will likelybewinnersinthesupplychain,butalsoviceversa.d2GhandsetICmarket:persistentpricepressureThe2Ghandsetmarketisstillgrowing,thankstoongoingdemandfromgloba
12、l emergingmarkets.However,ouranalysisofPCBAcostsusingdifferenthandset IC solutionssuggeststhatpricecompetitioninChinas2GICmarketwillcontinue, ratherthanstabilise,in2010.Inaddition,Chinastransitionto3G willleadto further pricingpressurefor2GICvendors,inourview.e3GhandsetICmarket:alleyesonTDSCDMAWeexp
13、ectChinas3Ghandsetshipmentstogrowtenfoldy-yin2010.Ofthethree3Gstandards,TDSCDMAis particularlyinthespotlight,sinceitisChinashome- grownstandardwithasupplychaininGreaterChina.WeexpectTDSCDMA handsetshipmentstohit15mnunitsin2010,upfrom2mnunitsin2009.However, TDSCDMAhandsetICpriceswilllikelyfallbyatlea
14、st30-40%in2010.fMediaTekcuttoREDUCE;BYDElectronicsreiterateBUYWearecautiousonMediaTekin2010.Itscore2GICbusinesswilllikelyencounter ongoingpricingpressurefrombothdirectcompetitionandChinasmigrationto3G. Also,Chinasfasttransitionto3GlooksnegativeforMediaTekintheinitialone-two years,sinceitssolutionsar
15、enotcompetitiveenough,inourview.Followinga transferofanalystcoverage,wedowngradeourratingonMediatektoREDUCE fromNeutral.ForBYDElectronics,weexpectittogrowitsshareintheTDSDMA handsetODMmarket,spurredbyNokiasgreatercommitmenttoTDSCDMA.Plus,thesharplyfallingTDSDMAICpriceissustainingODMmakersmargins.BYDElectronics 285HKBUY 6.32 8.
