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1、 Executive summary 1 Analysis results 3 Chinese price changes 4 Chinese dominance 4 Peril for Mexico, CBI and Africa 6 2005 How much will China take? 7 Impact on U.S. textile and apparel sector 10 Impact on other countries 11 Why China is so dominant 12 What can be done? 13 Conclusion 15 Appendices
2、17 The American Textile Manufacturers Institute 1130 Connecticut Ave, NW Washington DC 20036 202-862-0500 / f: 202-862-0570 www.atmi.org The China Threat to World Textile and Apparel Trade 来自w w w .3722.c n 中国最大资料库下载 1 Executive Summary The following report is a 22 page analysis of Chinese import in
3、creases and price shifts in 29 quota de- controlled categories since January 1, 2002. It concludes that if China follows the same pattern in 2005, when the bulk of its quotas will be removed, then Chinas share of the U.S. textile and apparel market will rise to over two-thirds of the U.S. market wit
4、hin 24 months. If this occurs, the result will be the largest wave of job losses and plant closures in U.S. textile and apparel history and will likely result in the elimination of textiles and apparel as a major manufacturing employer in the United States. Total U.S. textile and apparel job losses
5、from 2004-6 could reach 630,000, with over 1,300 textile plants closing in the United States over a three-year period. Job losses in the United States will be only a fraction of those that will occur overseas as an estimated $42 billion in export orders from other countries shift to China. This woul
6、d probably represent one of the largest short-term transfers of wealth in the history of the developing world. A large number of countries, from Mexico to South Africa, from Bangladesh to Haiti, from the Philippines to Turkey, depend on exports of textiles and apparel to the U.S. market for much of
7、their foreign exchange, not to mention the livelihoods of millions of their workers. The United States is far and away the worlds largest textile and apparel consuming nation, importing $75 billion worth of such goods from more than 70 countries last year1. After a review of the trade data, this ana
8、lysis also concludes that countries with trade preferences - Mexico, the nations of the Caribbean, Central America and Sub-Saharan Africa, among others - are no more likely to retain market share against China than any of the traditional exporting powers in the Far East. The dependence of a substant
9、ial portion of the U.S. textile industry on these preferential agreements is a significant reason that the textile outlook for U.S. producers is so grim. Mexico, the Caribbean and Central America account for over $10 billion worth of U.S. textile exports - and none of these countries appears capable
10、 of countering the enormous 1 According to WTO figures, the U.S. imports 50 percent more textiles and clothing than the EU, and more than three times as much as Japan. Projected Textile and Apparel Export Losses to China Country/Region Loss ($ mil.) CBI -$6,279 Mexico -$5,423 EU -$2,477 Canada -$1,8
11、61 Honduras -$1,763 Korea, South -$1,620 Indonesia -$1,390 Turkey -$1,316 Dominican Republic -$1,287 Guatemala -$1,265 Philippines -$1,236 Italy -$1,218 Thailand -$1,161 Bangladesh -$1,051 El Salvador -$1,015 SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA -$926 ANDEAN -$731 Projected Chinese Control 13% 20% 22% 44% 71% 0% 80%
12、20022003200420052006 U.S. textile and apparel import market 来自w w w .3722.c n 中国最大资料库下载 2 advantages that Chinas currency and subsidy regime grant its export machine. In addition, the ability to source fabric and yarn from outside the region does not appear to help Sub-Saharan Africas exports, which
13、 may contain such yarns and fabrics, fell just as rapidly as did the CBIs in China de-controlled categories. As a result, U.S. textile production is expected to plunge and, in relatively short order, many of the nearly one million U.S. workers who depend on the U.S. textile complex appear likely to
14、lose their jobs.2 Indeed, because textile formation is a precursor to apparel assembly, heavy textile job losses are expected to begin in mid-2004 and then continue into 2005 and 2006. One textile executive predicted that the industry could be “closing a plant a day” if China is not restrained. The
15、reports conclusions are based on a sharp drop in Chinese prices once quotas on apparel products were removed in 2002. During those twelve months, the average Chinese price fell by 44 percent, declining from $6.23 per square meter to $3.37 per square meter, a drop of $2.86 per square meter. Prices by
16、 suppliers other than China fell as well but not by nearly as much. The average price of other suppliers fell by 2 percent, dropping from $3.55 per square meter to $3.47 per square meter. The impact on trade patterns from the Chinese price drops was swift and definitive. China increased its exports in the 29 apparel categories by $980 million in 2002 while all other suppliers saw their exports drop by $813 million. This trend also accelerated in the first
