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1、APRIL27THMAY 3RD 2019 After Mueller, what next? Behind the attacks in Sri Lanka Huawei: Britains artful compromise Oils threat to global growth SouthAfricasbestbet How Cyril Ramaphosa can clean up the rainbow nation The Economist April 27th 20193 Contents continues overleaf1 Contents The world this
2、week 6A round-up of political and business news Leaders 9Cyril Ramaphosa South Africa s best bet 10Technology and security The right call on Huawei 10Donald Trump After Mueller, what next? 11Sri Lanka Easter evil 12Oil prices Spoiling the mood Letters 14On synthetic biology, Spain, workers, climate
3、change, economics, Indonesia, Yiddish Briefi ng 16Huawei Communication breakdown Special report: South Africa Saving the nation After page 40 United States 19Robert Mueller s report 21War powers 21Minimum wages 24Churchgoing 24Judicial elections 25Census and sensibility 26Lexington Joe Biden The Ame
4、ricas 27Trump v the troika of tyranny 28 Miff ed, moderate Panama 30Bello A Peruvian ex-president s suicide Asia 33Atrocities in Sri Lanka 34Indonesia s election 35Medical marijuana in Thailand 35Identity politics in India 36Opposing North Korea 37Banyan Taiwan s tycoon-turned-politician China 38Bel
5、t-and-road blues 39Locking up activists in Hong Kong 40Chaguan Naval dreams Middle East he is chosen by parliament, in which seats are allocated by proportional representation.) The case for dumping the ruling party is strong. It has been in power for 25 yearstoo long for any party, anywhere. Despit
6、e Mr Ramaphosa s eff orts, it is still stuff ed with crooks, some of them too powerful for the president to sack. Though home to a broad range of ideologies, the anc has recently seen a worrying resur- gence of far-left populism among its cadres. For example, it vows to change the constitution to al
7、low the expropriation of farm- land without compensation. The case for backing the liberal opposition, the Democratic Alliance (da), is also strong. It is far cleaner than the anc. Its charismatic young leader, Mmusi Maimane, believes in free markets. The parts of the country that it runs, including
8、 Cape Town and Johannesburg, are islands of effi ciency in a sea of murk and incompetence. Though the vast majority of munici- palities are controlled by the anc, a recent study by Good Gover- nance Africa, a think-tank, found that 15 of the 20 best-governed were run by the da, alone or in a coaliti
9、on. The Economist en- dorsed the da in 2014. But this time, with deep reservations, we would cast our notional vote, at the national level, for the anc. Our reasons are painfully pragmatic. The da has the right ideas for fi xing South Africa, but is in no position to implement them. It is still seen
10、 as the party of those who are white, Indian or Coloured (to use the local term for mixed-race). Because black South Africans are 80% of the population and mostly support the anc, the dacannot win (except at the provincial leveland here, we would enthusiastically endorse the da). For the national pa
11、r- liament, the crucial questions are: will the anc win an outright majority? And will the election strengthen or weaken Mr Rama- phosa s reforming hands? If the anc does badly, it will undermine Mr Ramaphosa and embolden the large faction within his party that would like to see him stumble. These a
12、re the bigwigs who profi ted from the Zuma years, and did not mind the race-baiting that the Zuma camp used to distract public attention from its own misdeeds. It also includes some of the party s hard left, who regard Mr Ramaphosa as altogether too friendly to capitalism. Given a chance, Mr Ra- map
13、hosa s anc rivals would love to replace him with someone more pliableand that would be disastrous. If the ancfalls short of a governing majority and has to forge an alliance with a smaller party, things could be even worse. It might climb into bed with the Economic Free- dom Fighters, a black-nation
14、alist group that outdoes Mr Zuma in its racist demagoguery and disregard for economic reality. (It wants to seize all white-owned land, and nationalise mines, banks and other “strategic sectors” without compensation, for starters.) Such an alliance would foster an even more bloated, corrupt and inef
15、f ective state. The least bad plausible outcome, then, is for voters to give the anca solid majority, thus boosting Mr Ramaphosa and allowing him to shun the populists and face down the mafi a within his own party. That way, he can continue the tough work of replacing useless Zuma appointees with la
16、w-abiding, competent people. Over the next fi ve years he should also allow prosecutors free rein to hunt looters; break up Eskom s power monopoly; enact a moratorium on job-killing regulations; take on the teachers un- ions that throttle education reform; and ensure that any land re- form extends property rights rather than trampling on them. The man Madiba wanted There is a big risk that none of this will happen, that the anchas grown so rotten that no one can reform it. Howe
