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1、2019/3/8,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,1,厦门国家会计学院,报表分析新思维(之一) 报表分析的逻辑切入点 黄世忠 Ph.D CPA. MBA 单位邮址:,2019/3/8,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,2,阐述报表分析的逻辑切入点 基于M公司与GFC公司的案例分析 案例分析 德隆的垮台与财务报表的预警信号 中石油的经营记录与业绩评价 移动电信的辉煌业绩与潜在风险 本讲旨在阐明报表分析的常见误区，把握报表分析的逻辑体系,研讨要点与目的,2019/3/8,Xiamen National Account
2、ing Institute,3,三大核心问题 问题1 M公司与GFC公司孰优孰劣？孰强孰弱？ 问题2 M公司与GFC公司股票市值的反差原因何在？ 问题3 如何评价M公司与GFC公司的业绩？,考倒全世界顶级MBA的难题,2019/3/8,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,4,经营规模-雇员人数,2019/3/8,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,5,经营规模-资产总额,2019/3/8,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,6,经营规模销售收入,2019/3/8,Xiamen Na
3、tional Accounting Institute,7,经营规模-CFFOA,2019/3/8,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,8,股票市值(Capitalization),2019/3/8,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,9,财务实力净资产,2019/3/8,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,10,经营绩效净利润,2019/3/8,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,11,财务数据：GFC v.s M (2002),新经济与旧经
4、济的反差,2019/3/8,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,12,1.科学管理(时间和动作研究) 2.成本核算和差异分析 3.商业研究实验室(科学产业化)(GE) 4.(ROI & ROE)资本分析和资本预算 5.品牌管理(P&G) 6.大规模项目管理 7.事业部制(GM) 8.领导力开发(GE) 9.产业内联合(多公司合作组织)(Visa) 10. 极度分权化(自我组织)(Google) 11.正式化战略分析 12. 员工驱动问题解决法(Toyota),DuPont Analysis,13.臭鼬工厂(内部攻坚小组) 14. 客户管理 15. 业务流程
5、再造,1900-2000年175项管理创新 1. 是否明显脱离以前的管理实践 2. 是否给率先创新的公司带来 竞争优势 3. 是否在当今的组织中留下烙印,20世纪现代管理的12大创新,2019/3/8,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,13,净资产收益率,(收入+利得) (成本+费用+损失) 实收资本 + 资本公积 + 盈余公积 + 未分配利润,净利润 ROE= 净资产,做大分子: 增收节支,做小分母: 光明正道: 资本结构 歪门邪道: 亏损挥霍,ROE陷阱,2019/3/8,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,14
6、,财务数据：GFC v.s M (2003),新经济与旧经济的强烈反差,2019/3/8,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,15,盈利质量,现金流量,资产质量,财务报表分析的三大逻辑切入点,2019/3/8,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,16,盈利质量,收入质量,利润质量,毛利率,成长性,波动性,研发营销,盈利质量分析方法,2019/3/8,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,17,收入质量(Quality of Revenue),2019/3/8,Xiamen Natio
7、nal Accounting Institute,18,收入质量(Quality of Revenue),2019/3/8,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,19,利润质量(Quality of Profit),2019/3/8,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,20,利润质量(Quality of Profit),2019/3/8,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,21,Microsoft Settlement (Antitrust suit filed in 1998,
8、settled in 2001),2019/3/8,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,22,经营业绩:2005 vs. 2004,2019/3/8,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,23,2006:艰难的转折?,Chrysler Group 2006 Operating Loss $15 2007 total Loss $29.2 May 15,2007 sold for $74 May 10, 1998 bought for $360,2007: -$387 2008Q3: -$213,SE as of the
9、end of 2008Q3 GM:-599; Ford: -20,2008Q3 -$87,2019/3/8,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,24,毛利率(Gross Profit Margin),2019/3/8,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,25,M公司的成本费用结构,3 E Strategy Embrace, Extend, Extinguish,2019/3/8,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,26,R & D 占销售收入比重,2006年2248家企业集团R&D
10、占比1.1%,GM2003-2005 3.33%; 3.34%; 3.47%,2019/3/8,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,27,成本结构与风险传导,资产质量,资产结构,现金含量,退出壁垒,经营风险,财务弹性,潜在损失,资产质量分析方法,技术风险,2019/3/8,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,28,资产质量(Quality of Assets)(2001),2019/3/8,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,29,资产质量(Quality of Assets)(2
11、002),2019/3/8,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,30,资产质量(Quality of Assets)(2003),2019/3/8,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,31,资产质量(Quality of Assets)(2004),2019/3/8,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,32,资产质量(Quality of Assets)(2005),2019/3/8,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,33,如何解释市净率?,
12、13.1,5.5,5.8,3.4,0.67,2019/3/8,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,34,品牌价值,2019/3/8,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,35,被忽略的“软资产”,2019/3/8,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,36,何为风险? Risk is uncertainty 风险的类别 经济风险(Economic Risk) 环境风险(经济条件、政治及社会环境） 市场风险（市场结构、企业竞争优势） 经营风险（Operational Risk) 固定成本
13、与变动成本比例 财务风险（Financial Risk) 资本结构与金融市场利率,营业风险 Business Risk,利润易变性 Profit Volatility,传 导,传 导,成本结构与风险传导,2019/3/8,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,37,+5% +14% +18% -5% -14% -18% 经济风险 经营风险 营业风险 财务风险,经济状况 政治社会环境,销售 收入,息税前 利润,税后 利润,市场结构 竞争优势,风险的传导与放大,2019/3/8,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,38,XY
14、Z公司风险评估测算表,风险传导放大效应,2019/3/8,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,39,现金流量,经营现金流量,自由现金流量,“造血”功能,自由裁量,现金流量分析方法,2019/3/8,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,40,广义的自由现金流量 FCF = 经营性现金流量-资本支出 用于评估还本付息和股利支付的能力 狭义的自由现金流量 FCF = 经营性现金流量-资本支出-现金股利 用于评估企业的财务弹性 利用市场机遇和应对市场逆境的能力 用于评估企业依靠内部现金资源谋求发展的能力,CFFOA vs. F
15、ree Cash Flow,2019/3/8,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,41,现金流量趋势:G (12 vs. 73),2007 CF-O:77;CF-CE:75 Int.:29; P:1844,2019/3/8,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,42,2005.12.13,Cut 30,000 jobs Close 9 facilities By 2008 (2005.11.21) Share $19.85 (2005.12.20) Lowest in 23 years,GM-不断恶化的信用等级,2019
16、/3/8,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,43,GM vs. Toyota,2008.11.7 GM: 27 TM: 1052,2019/3/8,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,44,谁是老大?,2019/3/8,Xiamen National Accounting Institute,45,1.1 million of employees covered, pension and health care liability totaled $170 b, current Shortage $54 b,GM-不堪重负的医疗与退休债务,2019/3/8,Xiamen National
