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1、 BOCI research is available electronically on Bloomberg (BOCR ), , and at . NB: BUY = +10% compared with the relevant benchmark index over a 6-month period; SELL= -10% compared with the relevant benchmark index over a 6-month period; HOLD = +10% and -10% compared with the relevant benchmark index o
2、ver a 6-month period; Not Rated (NR) PROPERTY Developer Initiating Coverage 1 19 9 F Fe eb br ru ua ar ry y 2 20 01 10 0 Alfred LAU, CFA +852 2905 2109 Share Price vs Index 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 19/02/09 19/03/09 19/04/09 19/05/09 19/06/09 19/07/09 19/08/09 19/09/09 19/10/09 19/11/09 19/12/09 19/01/10 19
3、/02/10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 SPG Land Holdings LtdHSMLCI Turnover (HK$ m)HK$ Sources: Bloomberg, BOCI Research Share Price Performance (%) YTD 1M 3M 12M Absolute (12) (6) (16) 375 Relative to HSMLCI (3) 3 (4) 323 Sources: Bloomberg, BOCI Research Key Data Total issued shares (m) 1,025 Free float
4、 (%) 52 Free float mkt. cap. (HK$ m) 2,197 3M avg. daily turnover (HK$ m) 5 Net debt/equity (%) (2009E) 59 Major shareholder (%) SPG Asset Management Limited 48 Sources: Company data, Bloomberg, BOCI Research SPG Land Niche player in the YRD region We believe SPG Land is on the verge of moving up to
5、 mid-sized developer status with the roll-out of its projects in the greater Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region. Its joint venture for The Peninsula on the Bund, a world-class luxury residential/hotel development, also raises the company profile. Such a track record will help the company in negotiatin
6、g with local governments in the tendering of new projects. Valuation is attractive at a 66% discount to our 2010E NAV per share, and we believe SPG Land serves as a proxy to growth in the YRD with a decent cushion. We initiate coverage with a BUY rating and a target price of HK$6.10, equivalent to a
7、 50% discount to our 2010E NAV per share. Key Factors for Rating ? The launch of The Peninsula Residence to unlock asset value. ? Accelerating development in the YRD. ? We expect earnings to quadruple during 200911 to Rmb1.6bn. Key Risks to Rating ? A lean land bank of only 5.4m sqm. ? Liquidity ris
8、k in case of further macrotightening. Valuation ? Valuation is attractive at a 66% discount to our 2010E NAV per share of HK$12.20 and a 17% discount to 2009E book value of Rmb4.36 per share. ? We rate SPG Land a BUY and set a target price of HK$6.10, based on a 50% discount to our 2010E NAV per sha
9、re. Figure 1. Investment Summary Year ended 31 Dec 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E Revenue (Rmb m) 1,715 1,395 2,600 4,141 7,827 Change (%) (9) (19) 86 59 89 Net profit (Rmb m) 518 151 1,196 810 1,670 Core Net profit (Rmb m) 164 49 405 810 1,670 Fully diluted EPS (Rmb) 0.144 0.048 0.395 0.790 1.629 Chan
10、ge (%) (59.2) (66.8) 727.0 100.1 106.1 Consensus EPS (Rmb) - - 0.318 0.535 0.975 Core EPS (Rmb) 0.144 0.048 0.395 0.790 1.629 Change (%) (59.2) (66.8) 727.0 100.1 106.1 Fully diluted P/E (x) 25.2 76.1 9.2 4.6 2.2 Core P/E (x) 25.2 76.1 9.2 4.6 2.2 CFPS (Rmb) (0.60) (0.28) (0.56) (4.47) 1.90 P/CF (x)
11、 (6.0) (13.0) (6.5) (0.8) 1.9 EV/EBITDA (x) 9.2 15.2 5.2 6.9 3.7 DPS (Rmb) 0.144 0.050 0.085 0.120 0.150 Yield (%) 4.0 1.4 2.3 3.3 4.1 Sources: Company data, BOCI Research estimates BUY 0337.HK HK$4.13 Target Price: HK$6.10 P P 19 February 2010 SPG Land 2 THIS DOCUMENT MAY NOT BE DISTRIBUTED IN OR I
12、NTO THE PRC. Table of Contents Table of Contents REVEALING ITS TRUE VALUE 2 66% DISCOUNT TO NAV . 3 SMALL, BUT NOT BEHIND. 5 PROPERTY DEVELOPMENT 8 STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIPS 13 EARNINGS OUTLOOK. 14 SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS. 16 RISK FACTORS17 APPENDIX. SENIOR MANAGEMENT 18 LISTED COMPANIES IN THIS REPORT. 2
13、0 19 February 2010 SPG Land 2 THIS DOCUMENT MAY NOT BE DISTRIBUTED IN OR INTO THE PRC. RRE EVVE EAAL LI INNGG I IT TS S T T RRUUE E VVAAL LUUE E Since its first project, Cambridge Forest Newtown in Shanghai, SPG Land has been a niche player focusing on the highend residential market. Although its pr
14、oject locations were not in city centres and sometimes even in completely new suburban areas with little infrastructure, SPG Land was able to command a high average selling price (ASP), thanks to its superior building quality and solid master planning in the community. It also forms strategic partne
15、rships with hotels, international school, etc, to further raise the profile of the development. As the municipality grew and more new players were attracted, SPG Land expanded to nearby cities, such as Suzhou, Wuxi and Changshu, in order to continue tapping into the niche market of highquality resid
16、ential properties. A strong brand name and track record in Shanghai should help the company replenish primly located land bank on reasonable terms, in our view. SPG Land has also maintained its exposure in Shanghai through investments in retail and hotel properties in the city centre. We believe this has allowed the company to benefit from the upside in Shanghai property prices while avoiding competition from ot
