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1、W O R L D E C O N O M I C F O R U M E N E R G Y V I S I O N U P D AT E The New Energy Security Paradigm World Economic Forum in partnership with Cambridge Energy Research Associates Spring 2006 W O R L D E C O N O M I C F O R U M About the World Economic Forum The World Economic Forum is an independ
2、ent international organization committed to improving the state of the world by engaging leaders in partnerships to shape global, regional and industry agendas. Incorporated as a foundation in 1971, and based in Geneva, Switzerland, the World Economic Forum is impartial and not-for-profit; it is tie
3、d to no political, partisan or national interests. (www.weforum.org) About CERA Cambridge Energy Research Associates, Inc. (CERA), an IHS company, is a leading advisor to energy companies, governments, financial institutions, technology providers, and consumers. CERA delivers critical knowledge and
4、independent objective analysis on energy markets, geopolitics, industry trends, and strategy. () CERAs expertise covers all major energy sectorsoil and refined products, natural gas, coal, and electric poweron a global and regional basis. CERAs team of experts is headed by Daniel Yergin, Chairman, a
5、uthor of The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money and Power for which he won the Pulitzer Prize, and author of The Commanding Heights: The Battle for the World Economy. IHS is the leading source for the critical information and data on which the upstream oil and gas industry operates worldwide. () A
6、bout the Energy Industry Partnership The Energy Industry Partnership (IP) programme of the World Economic Forum provides the CEOs and senior executives of the worlds leading companies as well as select Energy ministers with the opportunity to engage with their peers to define and address critical in
7、dustry issues throughout the year. Identifying, developing and acting upon these specific industry issues is fundamental to the Forums drive to deliver sustainable social development founded upon economic progress. World Economic Forum Energy Security Agenda Steering Board Abdallah S. Jumah, Preside
8、nt and Chief Executive Officer, Saudi Aramco, Saudi Arabia Helge Lund, President and Chief Executive Officer, Statoil, Norway Claude Mandil, Executive Director, International Energy Agency, Paris The Energy Vision Update is published twice a year and provides in-depth analyses of energy issues ident
9、ified by the Energy Governors Community of the World Economic Forum. Contents 3 Executive Summary4 Energy Community Survey6 Introduction7 The Definition of Energy Security9 The Evolution of Energy Security11 Shifts in Global Oil Supply and Demand Patterns12 The Dash to Natural Gas and the Effect on
10、Electric Power17 Emerging Energy Security Issues22 Perspectives: Geopolitical Transformations and the Shifting Energy Markets21 By Anoush Ehteshami and Sven Behrendt Climate Change and Carbon Capture and Storage23 By David M. Reiner and Paul Freund A Perspective on Energy Security25 By Abdallah S. J
11、umah From OPEC to OPIC26 By Ged Davis Selected Scenarios from the World Economic Forums “Scenarios Series”:28 China28 India31 Russia34 4 W O R L D E C O N O M I C F O R U M Energy security has changed dramatically since the great oil supply disruptions of the 1970s and is capturing headlines worldwi
12、de. After nearly two decades of comfortable supply margins, the global energy system is now stretched to the breaking point. The recent Russian-Ukrainian natural gas dispute and oil disruptions elsewhere highlight the importance of the issue on the geopolitical agenda. What does energy security mean
13、 in a world in which financial markets, energy markets and communications are so closely linked? Historically, energy security focused primarily on concerns about oil disruption in the oil-producing world, with particular focus on the Middle East. That concern has not abated, but has been joined by
14、others. Today, news about any energy disruption electric power black-outs in Europe or North America, political and social conflict in Latin America, hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico, terrorist activities in Iraq or threats such as a confrontation over Irans nuclear programme moves around the globe
15、with lightning speed. The impact is immediate and felt by companies, suppliers, consumers and market traders and in the balance of payments, revenues and government expenditures. The latest technologies have been used to create more complex, integrated systems that have squeezed out inefficiencies a
16、nd enabled nations around the world to access energy on demand. This has been done in response to market pressures, government policies and technological advance. But this level of integration and complexity has come with a price, demonstrated most recently by the destruction from hurricanes Katrina and Rita in the US Gulf of Mexico. Oil refineries and oil and gas pipelines were inoperable because the power lines that feed critical electricity to them were
