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1、 WU048-Bouchet-FMWU047-BouchetApril 16, 200316:34Char Count= 0 Country Risk Assessment A Guide to Global Investment Strategy Michel Henry Bouchet Ephraim Clark and Bertrand Groslambert iii WU048-Bouchet-FMWU047-BouchetApril 16, 200316:34Char Count= 0 iii WU048-Bouchet-FMWU047-BouchetApril 16, 200316
2、:34Char Count= 0 Country Risk Assessment i WU048-Bouchet-FMWU047-BouchetApril 16, 200316:34Char Count= 0 Wiley Finance Series Country Risk Assessment: A Guide to Global Investment Strategy Michel Henry Bouchet, Ephraim Clark and Bertrand Groslambert Risk-adjusted Lending Conditions: An Option Pricin
3、g Approach Werner Rosenberger The Simple Rules of Risk: Revisiting the Art of Risk Management Erik Banks Measuring Market Risk Kevin Dowd An Introduction to Market Risk Management Kevin Dowd Behavioural Finance James Montier Asset Management: Equities Demystifi ed Shanta Acharya An Introduction to C
4、apital Markets: Products, Strategies, Participants Andrew M. Chisholm Hedge Funds: Myths and Limits Francois-Serge Lhabitant The Managers Concise Guide to Risk Jihad S. Nader Securities Operations: A Guide to Trade and Position Management Michael Simmons Modeling, Measuring and Hedging Operational R
5、isk Marcelo Cruz Monte Carlo Methods in Finance Peter J ackel Building and Using Dynamic Interest Rate Models Ken Kortanek and Vladimir Medvedev Structured Equity Derivatives: The Defi nitive Guide to Exotic Options and Structured Notes Harry Kat Advanced Modelling in Finance Using Excel and VBA Mar
6、y Jackson and Mike Staunton Operational Risk: Measurement and Modelling Jack King Dictionary of Financial Engineering John F. Marshall Pricing Financial Derivatives: The Finite Difference Method Domingo A. Tavella and Curt Randall Interest Rate Modelling Jessica James and Nick Webber Interest-Rate O
7、ption Models: Understanding, Analysing and Using Models for Exotic Interest-Rate Options (second edition) Riccardo Rebonato ii WU048-Bouchet-FMWU047-BouchetApril 16, 200316:34Char Count= 0 Country Risk Assessment A Guide to Global Investment Strategy Michel Henry Bouchet Ephraim Clark and Bertrand G
8、roslambert iii WU048-Bouchet-FMWU047-BouchetApril 16, 200316:34Char Count= 0 CopyrightC?2003John Wiley toonumerousto name individually in this restricted space but nonetheless the target of our everlasting thanks. xi WU048-Bouchet-FMWU047-BouchetApril 16, 200316:34Char Count= 0 xii WU048-Bouchet-FMW
9、U047-BouchetApril 16, 200316:34Char Count= 0 Foreword By Professor Campbell R. Harvey When I began working in emerging markets more than 10 years ago, the topic was not fashionable and received little attention, mainly because of the cost associated with ob- taining comprehensive information, and du
10、e to a lack of quality and timely data. On the contrary, at that time, the hot topics were derivatives, M nor the prospect of a Victory bond being drawn.Even the weather is only moderately uncertain. The sense in which I am using the term is that in which the prospect of a European war is uncertain,
11、 or the price of copper and the rate of interest twenty years hence.About these matters there is no scientifi c basis on which to form any calculable probability whatever. We simply do not know.” There may be several reasons why “we simply do not know”. First, the system may be too complex to be mea
12、sured. In this case, the theory of chaos explains the situation by saying that it contains too many degrees of freedom, and is therefore unpredictable in the long run. Alternatively, it may be because we dont have a long enough time series to extrapolate the underlying probability law. For instance,
13、 many economic variables follow certain probability laws of “rare events”, such as Paretos law. In order to be accurately estimated, these types of distributions require extremely large empirical databases, which are hardly ever found in real life. Lastly, another argument could lie in the permanent
14、ly changing and inherently unstable nature of the environment. To draw on the past in order to infer the probability of future occurrences would be completely misleading, if a structural change took place in the meantime. Ifthesizeofthepopulationunderscrutinyissuffi cientlylarge(inthebillions)tobeva
15、lidfor statistical appraisal and provided itis unaware ofthe existence of the science of Psychohistory, then Hari Seldom demonstrated that Psychohistory could predict the behavior of human soci- eties over at least 30000 years. Psychohistory is “a branch of mathematics which deals with the reactions
16、 of human conglomerates to fi xed social and economic stimuli” (Asimov, 1967). Unfortunately,orrathermaybefortunately,thissciencehasnotbeeninventedyet,exceptinthe imagination of the famous science fi ction novelist, Isaac Asimov. Today, organization science, political science, economics, or country risk are still light years away from Psychohistory. Nevertheless,wecanreasonablyexpectfromthemacertainabilitytoanticipatesocialchanges. Theobjectiveofthisbookistoexplorethequestionforcountryrisk.W
