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1、Michael J. Mauboussin Chief Investment Strategist Legg Mason Capital Management,Long Term Investing in a Short Term World.,Its as Easy as PIE,2,PIE,P I E,sychology ncentives xpectations,Not,3,Agenda,The Barriers Psychology Incentives The Evidence Corporations Investors/Investment managers The Soluti
2、on Social context A look at winners Time arbitrage,4,Barriers to Long Term Thinking,Phenomenon Effect Availability bias Accounting versus economic focus Recency bias Betting on what has worked Stress Creates a short-term focus Agent/principal shift Agency costs,Incentives,Psychology,5,Corporations,S
3、ource: Brian J. Hall and Jeffrey B. Liebman, “Are CEOs Really Paid Like Bureaucrats?” NBER Working Paper 6213, October 1997; “2004 CEO Compensation Survey and Trends,” Wall Street Journal/Mercer Human Resource Consulting, May 2005; LMCM estimates.,1985,2005,CEO Compensation,1995,Tied to stock market
4、 43%,Tied to stock market 1%,Tied to stock market 60%,6,Corporations,“Earnings are in a class by themselves” Four reasons: Investors need a simple metric to summarize performance EPS gets the broadest media distribution and coverage Focus on EPS makes the analysts job easier Analysts evaluate a firm
5、s progress based on making EPS,Source: John R. Graham, Campbell R. Harvey, and Shiva Rajgopal, “The Economic Implications of Corporate Financial Reporting,” NBER Working Paper, March 2004.,7,Firms are willing to sacrifice economic value in order to meet a short-run earnings target The preference for
6、 smooth earnings is so strong that 78% of surveyed executives would give up economic value in exchange for smooth earnings!,EPS Obsession,Source: John R. Graham, Campbell R. Harvey, and Shiva Rajgopal, “The Economic Implications of Corporate Financial Reporting,” NBER Working Paper, March 2004.,8,In
7、vestors,From Principals to Agents,Individual investors,Financial institutions,1950,2000,Source: John Bogle, “The Relentless Rules of Humble Arithmetic,” Speech: 60th Anniversary Conference of the Financial Analyst Journal, February 10, 2005.,Direct stock holdings,Individual investors,Financial insti
8、tutions,1970,Individual investors,Financial institutions,9,Investment Management,Profession Business Deliver superior results Generate sales Long term Asset gathering Contrarian Return for company, not shareholders Patient,Source: Charles D. Ellis, “Will Business Success Spoil the Investment Managem
9、ent Profession?” The Journal of Portfolio Management, Spring 2001.,10,Number of funds versus relative returns (1994-2003),Investment Management,Source: Fidelity Investments. Data presented in John C. Bogle, “The Relentless Rules of Humble Arithmetic,” Financial Analyst Journal, November/December 200
10、5.,Shading highlights firms that manage fifteen or fewer funds,11,Investment Management,Ownership structure versus relative returns (1994-2003),Source: Fidelity Investments. Data presented in John C. Bogle, “The Relentless Rules of Humble Arithmetic,” Financial Analyst Journal, November/December 200
11、5.,Shading represents private firms,12,Investors,Bad timing exerts a huge toll,Average Investor Return,Source: John C. Bogle, “The Relentless Rules of Humble Arithmetic,” Financial Analyst Journal, November/December 2005.,12.8%,10.0%,6.3%,Average Annual Return (1983-2003),S&P 500 Index Fund,Average
12、Fund Return,13,Investors,Bad timingchasing what has been hot,Source: John C. Bogle, “Statement of John C. Bogle to the United States Senate Governmental Affairs Subcommittee,” available at Bogle Financial Markets Research Center.,14,Investors,“At Cape Cod Barber Shop, Slumping Stocks Clip Buzz”,“Tec
13、h-Stock Chit-Chat Enriches Many Cape Cod Locals”,1995,2000,2005,“All they ever say is, Buy, buy, buy, all the way down from $100 a share to bankruptcy.”,NASDAQ,“I dont think anything could shake my confidence in this market.even if we do go down 30%, well just come right back.”,March 13, 2000,July 8
14、, 2002,15,Investors,All Styles,Small Cap Value,Small Cap Growth,Mid Cap Value,Mid Cap Growth,Large Cap Value,Large Cap Growth,Note: Data from 1979-2002.,Source: Evergreen Capital Management, LLC. “An Asset Allocation Strategy for the Intelligent Investor.”,Mutual Fund Flows and Subsequent 2-Year Avg
15、 Return versus S&P 500 (%),High outflows, low valuations,High inflows, high valuations,-4.9,-8.4,+1.4,-2.1,-9.5,-5.8,-6.7,+17.8,+8.7,+1.7,+14.5,+10.3,+6.5,+4.2,16,Bad timing,Investors,Last 5 year annual gain,Rydex Weighting,S&P 500 Weighting,Energy,Precious Metals,Technology,Financials,Overweight,Un
16、derweight,10.7%,18.7%,31.2%,22.6%,9.8%,0.4%,-5.9%,2.8%,15.1%,4.8%,2.9%,21.6%,Source: Bloomberg and S&P.,Performance Data as of 5/26/06 Rydex Data as of 5/26/06 S&P Data as of 5/30/06,17,In it for the short(er) term,Investors,Source: John Bogle, “The Mutual Fund Industry 60 Years Later: For Better or Worse?”, Financial Analyst Journal, January/February 2005.,18,Holding periods are shrinking,Investment Managers,Source: Bogle Financial Markets Res
