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1、Chapter 8 Stock Valuation,McGraw-Hill/Irwin,Copyright 2010 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.,Key Concepts and Skills,Understand how stock prices depend on future dividends and dividend growth Be able to compute stock prices using the dividend growth model Understand how corpora
2、te directors are elected Understand how stock markets work Understand how stock prices are quoted,8-2,Chapter Outline,Common Stock Valuation Some Features of Common and Preferred Stocks The Stock Markets,8-3,Cash Flows for Stockholders,If you buy a share of stock, you can receive cash in two ways Th
3、e company pays dividends 持有收益：股利 You sell your shares, either to another investor in the market or back to the company 变现收益 As with bonds, the price of the stock is the present value of these expected cash flows,8-4,One-Period Example,Suppose you are thinking of purchasing the stock of Moore Oil, In
4、c. You expect it to pay a $2 dividend in one year, and you believe that you can sell the stock for $14 at that time. If you require a return of 20% on investments of this risk, what is the maximum you would be willing to pay? Compute the PV of the expected cash flows Price = (14 + 2) / (1.2) = $13.3
5、3,8-5,Two-Period Example,Now, what if you decide to hold the stock for two years? In addition to the dividend in one year, you expect a dividend of $2.10 in two years and a stock price of $14.70 at the end of year 2. Now how much would you be willing to pay? PV = 2 / (1.2) + (2.10 + 14.70) / (1.2)2
6、= 13.33,8-6,Three-Period Example,Finally, what if you decide to hold the stock for three years? In addition to the dividends at the end of years 1 and 2, you expect to receive a dividend of $2.205 at the end of year 3 and the stock price is expected to be $15.435. Now how much would you be willing t
7、o pay? PV = 2 / 1.2 + 2.10 / (1.2)2 + (2.205 + 15.435) / (1.2)3 = 13.33,8-7,Developing The Model,You could continue to push back the year in which you will sell the stock You would find that the price of the stock is really just the present value of all expected future dividends So, how can we estim
8、ate all future dividend payments?,8-8,Estimating Dividends: Special Cases,Constant dividend 固定股利,零增长 The firm will pay a constant dividend forever This is like preferred stock The price is computed using the perpetuity formula Constant dividend growth 固定比例增长，稳定增长 The firm will increase the dividend
9、by a constant percent every period The price is computed using the growing perpetuity model Supernormal growth 非正常增长 Dividend growth is not consistent initially, but settles down to constant growth eventually The price is computed using a multistage model,8-9,特例：Zero Growth,If dividends are expected
10、 at regular intervals forever, then this is a perpetuity and the present value of expected future dividends can be found using the perpetuity formula，永续年金形式 P0 = D / R Suppose stock is expected to pay a $0.50 dividend every quarter and the required return is 10% with quarterly compounding. What is t
11、he price? P0 = .50 / (.1 / 4) = $20,8-10,Dividend Growth Model,Dividends are expected to grow at a constant percent per period. P0 = D1 /(1+R) + D2 /(1+R)2 + D3 /(1+R)3 + P0 = D0(1+g)/(1+R) + D0(1+g)2/(1+R)2 + D0(1+g)3/(1+R)3 + With a little algebra and some series work, this reduces to:,8-11,当r-g0时
12、，股价将无穷大,DGM Example 1,Suppose Big D, Inc., just paid a dividend of $0.50 per share. It is expected to increase its dividend by 2% per year. If the market requires a return of 15% on assets of this risk, how much should the stock be selling for? P0 = .50(1+.02) / (.15 - .02) = $3.92,8-12,DGM Example
13、2,Suppose TB Pirates, Inc., is expected to pay a $2 dividend in one year. If the dividend is expected to grow at 5% per year and the required return is 20%, what is the price? P0 = 2 / (.2 - .05) = $13.33 Why isnt the $2 in the numerator multiplied by (1.05) in this example?,8-13,Stock Price Sensiti
14、vity to Dividend Growth, g,D1 = $2; R = 20%,8-14,Stock Price Sensitivity to Required Return, R,D1 = $2; g = 5%,8-15,Example 8.3 Gordon Growth Company - I,Gordon Growth Company is expected to pay a dividend of $4 next period, and dividends are expected to grow at 6% per year. The required return is 1
15、6%. What is the current price? P0 = 4 / (.16 - .06) = $40 Remember that we already have the dividend expected next year, so we dont multiply the dividend by 1+g,8-16,Example 8.3 Gordon Growth Company - II,What is the price expected to be in year 4? P4 = D4(1 + g) / (R g) = D5 / (R g) P4 = 4(1+.06)4
16、/ (.16 - .06) = 50.50 画时间轴 What is the implied return given the change in price during the four year period? 50.50 = 40(1+return)4; return = 6% PV = -40; FV = 50.50; N = 4; CPT I/Y = 6% The price is assumed to grow at the same rate as the dividends 价格和股利按同比率增长,8-17,Nonconstant Growth Problem Statement,Suppose a firm is expected to increase dividends by 20% in one year and by 15% in two years第二年. After that, dividends will increase at a rate of 5% per year indefinitely. If the
