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1、Current status and future development of silicon thin film PV industry in China,Dr. Yaohua Mai, Dr. Yuelong Huang Baoding Tianwei SolarFilms Co., Ltd. Prof. Xinhua Geng Inst. Of Photoelectronics, Nankai University,PV industry saw fast expansion,Annual growth rate Past 10 years: 30% Past 5 years: 50%
2、 Much faster growth than IT industry,Data source: PV News 2007,Poly-silicon price soared,$30/Kg in 2003 $400/Kg in 2008,Silicon shortage boosts TFPV industry,Av. Annual increase of 80% in past 5 years Increased by 110% in 2007 TFPV: 25-30% market share in 2010 a-Si/c-Si tandem modules gives prospect
3、 for high Plans of GWs capacity for Si TF solar modules announced,Planned capacities,Data source: A. Jger- Waldau, PV Status Report 2007,Current status of Si TFPV in China,Total: 100 MW,First mass production started in 1988 Si TF PV companies established,Modules: a-Si single junction or a-Si/a-Si ta
4、ndem Stabilized efficiency: 3 - 6% None of them passed TV or UL certificates,New Projects,Total: More than 200 MW capacity in progress; more than 1.5 GW announced.,Modules: a-Si single junction and a-Si/c-Si tandem Stabilized efficiency: 5 8.5%,Challenges and risks,Despite booming capacity,shall not
5、 be neglected,Roadmap for China Si TFPV industry,Companies (e.g. Kaneka) to achieved higher 10% by 2010 Low cost $1/Wp announced by other TF techniques,Higher efficiency: 2010: 10% 2012: 12% Lower cost: 2010: $1/Wp Aiming at $0.6/Wp to compete with grid electricity,Challenges in core technologies,La
6、ck of core technologies, most companies purchased turnkey lines Oerlikon AMAT Ulvac etc. Aftermath High cost Technology upgrade relies on OEM suppliers,R&D ability is in urgent need for China Si TFPV industry,Companies like Tianwei SolarFilms invests huge budget in their R&D centers Goldensun and Na
7、nkai University started a cooperative research center Indigenous equipment producers appeared Polar New Energy, Sibolu ,Considering the low level research in China, Tianwei Calls on a closer cooperation.,Other Risks: Possible material shortage,Silane and other ESG No civil silane producer, possible
8、silane shortage in near future, price up 20% most ESG imported TCO Few manufacturers in China, but with relatively low quality NSG and Asahi dominate the market PVB, EVA and sputtering targets Lack in bargaining and pricing ability due to low capacity High material price Low supply security,Solution
9、s：,Long term contract Hindrance: Small production capacity Joint purchase? Materials made in China,Summary,China Si TFPV observed fast growth in last years Capacity of 200MW will be released in late 2008 and 2009 Challenges and risks in core technology and material supply are the bottlenecks Tianwei
10、 SolarFilms calls on closer cooperation in R&D and material supply,Thank you for your attention!,The authors thank colleagues for their contribution,Site: Baoding, Hebei Area: 200,000m2 for 3 phases. 65,000 m2 for phase I,Oerlikon Solar turnkey production line a-Si single junction modules Capacity: 46MW Start of Production: Mid 2009,
