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1、The world is changing with really remarkable speed. If you look at the chart at the top here, youll see that in 2025, these Goldman Sachs projections suggest that the Chinese economy will be almost the same size as the American economy. And if you look at the chart for 2050, its projected that the C
2、hinese economy will be twice the size of the American economy, and the Indian economy will be almost the same size as the American economy. And we should bear in mind here that these projections were drawn up before the Western financial crisis. 世界正在 以惊人的速度飞快得改变着。 如果你看着这上方的图表， 你会看到在 2025 年， 高盛投资公司的这
3、些预测 表明中国经济规模 会和美国经济几乎相当。 如果看 2050 年的 图表， 预测表明中国经济规模 将会是美国经济的两倍， 印度的经济规模将会和 美国的经 济几乎持平。 在这里，我们应该记住 这些预测是在 西方经济危机之前做出的。 A couple of weeks ago, I was looking at the latest projection by BNP Paribas for when China will have a larger economy than the United States. Goldman Sachs projected 2027. The post-
4、crisis projection is 2020. Thats just a decade away. China is going to change the world in two fundamental respects. First of all, its a huge developing country with a population of 1.3 billion people, which has been growing for over 30 years at around 10 percent a year. 几周前， 我查看法国巴黎银行的 最近预测， 中国在什么时
5、候 会超越美国经济， 成为第 一大经济体。 高盛投资公司预测 2027 年。 危机过后的预测 是 2020 年。 这也不过只有 10 年的光景。 中国将在两个基本方面上 改变世界。 首先， 中国是一个幅员广大的发展 中国家 它有 13 亿人口， 在过去 30 年间 它以每年 10%左右的经济增长率发展。 And within a decade, it will have the largest economy in the world. Never before in the modern era has the largest economy in the world been that o
6、f a developing country, rather than a developed country. Secondly, for the first time in the modern era, the dominant country in the world - which I think is what China will become - will be not from the West and from very, very different civilizational roots. 在未来 10 年间， 它会有世界上最大的经济体。 在世界现代史中， 以前从来都
7、是发达国家 还 没有一个发展中的国家 变成了世界上 最大的经济体。 第二， 在现代史中第一次 在世界 上， 我认为中国会变成大国， 它有别于西方国家 而它是从非常，非常不同的文明根源发 展起的大国。 Now, I know its a widespread assumption in the West that as countries modernize, they also westernize. This is an illusion. Its an assumption that modernity is a product simply of competition, markets
8、 and technology. It is not. It is also shaped equally by history and culture. China is not like the West, and it will not become like the West. It will remain in very fundamental respects very different. Now the big question here is obviously, how do we make sense of China? How do we try to understa
9、nd what China is? And the problem we have in the West at the moment, by and large, is that the conventional approach is that we understand it really in Western terms, using Western ideas. We cant. Now I want to offer you three building blocks for trying to understand what China is like, just as a be
10、ginning. 现在我知道西方国家有一个普遍的假设 随着国家的现代化， 它们也会西方化。 这是个幻 想。 这是对于现代化 仅仅是竞争，市场和技术的一种产品的假设。 中国的现代化不仅仅 是这样的，也是由 历史和文化共同作用下形成的。 中国不同于西方国家， 它也不会变成 和西方国家一样。 它会在非常基础的方面表现得 非常不同。 现在这的大问题明显是， 我 们该怎样认识中国？ 我们该怎样了解中国？ 在西方我们现在的问题大体上 是传统的方法 我们用西方的术语， 用西方的观点来了解 真正的中国。 我们不能这样。 现在我想给大家 3 个基础理由 来试着了解中国 只是起个头。 The first is t
11、his: that China is not really a nation-state. Okay, its called itself a nation-state for the last hundred years, but everyone who knows anything about China knows its a lot older than this. This was what China looked like with the victory of the Qin Dynasty in 221 B.C. at the end of the warring-stat
12、e period - the birth of modern China. And you can see it against the boundaries of modern China. Or immediately afterward, the Han Dynasty, still 2,000 years ago. And you can see already it occupies most of what we now know as Eastern China, which is where the vast majority of Chinese lived then and
13、 live now. 首先是这个， 中国事实上不是一个民族国家。 在过去的几百年，中国自称是一个 民族国 家。 但对中国很了解的人 知道中国比这历史要悠久得多。 中国是 在公元前 221 年也就在 战国时期的末期从秦朝一统江山起， 现代中国就诞生了。 你可以看到现代中国的边界线。 随之其后的汉朝， 还在 2000 年前。 你可以看出中国已经占据 我们现在所知的华东地区的 大部分， 绝大多数的中国人当时在那儿居住 现在还生活在那儿。 Now what is extraordinary about this is, what gives China its sense of being China
14、, what gives the Chinese the sense of what it is to be Chinese, comes not from the last hundred years, not from the nation-state period, which is what happened in the West, but from the period, if you like, of the civilization-state. Im thinking here, for example, of customs like ancestral worship,
15、of a very distinctive notion of the state, likewise, a very distinctive notion of the family, social relationships like guanxi, Confucian values and so on. These are all things that come from the period of the civilization-state. In other words, China, unlike the Western states and most countries in
16、 the world, is shaped by its sense of civilization, its existence as a civilization-state, rather than as a nation-state. And theres one other thing to add to this, and that is this: Of course we know Chinas big, huge, demographically and geographically, with a population of 1.3 billion people. What we often arent really aware of is the fact that China is extremely diverse and very pluralistic, and in many ways very decentralized. You cant run a place on this scale simply
