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1、CORE Equity Research 15 August 2018 U.S. Restaurants 2Q18 & July Comp Led by Casual over QSR But Beware of the Pendulum Heading into restaurant earnings, as noted in “2Q18 Preview Comp Mo Sustained” (7/19/18), stock performance was led by casual dining. And while the message still rings true, the ou
2、tperformance of: 1) casual over QSR & 2) restaurants over retail (& staples) has narrowed of late. The pendulum has started to swing away from restaurants as we hand the baton to retail earnings (no August relief for retail investors). If retail results are less bad than feared, investable dollars c
3、ould continue to shift from restaurants back to retail (& staples) (see charts in body for detail). As for restaurants, more than half of our coverage reported 2Q18 comps in-line to better than expected, and those that missed did so modestly. And not surprisingly, the majority reported EPS above exp
4、ectations, often aided by tax favorability. Such has supported outperformance vs. the S&P post reporting. With that said, weve seen expectations on the rise, and the most recent easing of comps in July (per 3rd party data) will likely temper future stock outperformance. Beyond comps, the triple thre
5、at of outsized labor inflation, less food deflation, and limited pricing power, leaves us cautious on fundamentals near term. In this note, we analyze restaurant comp & EPS growth in calendar 2Q18, as well as color on 3Q18 QTD comps. 2Q18 Restaurant Takeaways 60% reported in-line to better than expe
6、cted comp & 80% beat EPS expectations. Interestingly, 65% are outperforming the S&P since reporting, and based on the strong 1H18 outperformance, 80% are still up YTD (Fig. 1). Specific to comps, our discretionary casual diners were largely strong throughout led by Texas Roadhouse, BJs, & Bloomin. O
7、ur staple QSRs were led by Dominos, while McDonalds, Pizza Hut & Taco Bell (& Burger King) fell short, with a narrowing of the gap relative to regional / smaller players. And our fast casual concepts reported mixed results, though growth is in favor, with Chipotle & Wingstop up 75%+ and 65%+ YTD. Re
8、staurant Comp Color for 2Q18 & 3Q18 QTD Most offered favorable commentary when describing sequential 2Q18 & early 3Q18 comp trends, led by our casual diners (though easing of late). 2Q18 trends were strong to start and finish, with a small dip in the middle. The top 3 factors oft used to explain the
9、 relative comp strength: 1) Benefit from to-go sales, led by delivery, 2) benefit from consumer tax reform, & 3) further strengthening of the consumer with both (un)employment and confidence. Casual Dining Comp Upside Well Telegraphed Discretionary casual diners continued the comp momentum seen in 1
10、Q18 though such was less of a surprise in 2Q18. Most casual diners met or beat expectations (ex EAT & TXRH, the latter industry leading). That said, we did not see the level of comp outperformance seen in 1Q18, which limited stock outperformance post print. Elevated comp expectations are priced in w
11、ith the question now sustainability. Will the pendulum swing back to QSR in 2H18? Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of its affiliates does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that
12、 could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATION(S) AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES BEGINNING ON PAGE 21. INDUSTRY UPDATE U.S. Restaurants NEUTRAL Unchanged For a full list of o
13、ur ratings, price target and earnings changes in this report, please see table on page 2. U.S. Restaurants Jeffrey A. Bernstein +1 212 526 3855 BCI, US Pratik Patel +1 212 526 4438 BCI, US Jeff Priester +1 212 526 1880 BCI, US Barclays | U.S. Restaurants Summary of our Ratings, Price Targets and
14、Earnings Changes in this Report (all changes are shown in bold) Company Rating Price Price Target EPS FY1 (E) EPS FY2 (E) Old New 14-Aug-18 Old New %Chg Old New %Chg Old New %Chg U.S. Restaurants Neu Neu BJs Restaurants Inc (BJRI) UW UW 64.10 54.00 54.00 - 2.18 2.18 - 2.45 2.45 - Bloomin Brands, Inc
15、. (BLMN) OW OW 18.73 27.00 27.00 - 1.44 1.44 - 1.50 1.50 - Bojangles Inc. (BOJA) EW EW 14.05 15.00 15.00 - 0.69 0.69 - 0.85 0.85 - Brinker International (EAT) EW EW 43.16 50.00 50.00 - 3.85 3.85 - 4.05 4.05 - Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) EW EW 493.32 360.00 360.00 - 8.25 8.25 - 12.00 12.00 - Darden Restaurants (DRI) OW OW 111.16 121.00 121.00 - 5.50 5.50 - 6.15 6.15 - Dominos Pizza (DPZ)
