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1、质量管理前沿领域 QFD简介,质 量 机 能 展 开 Quality Function Deployment,Follow-up on Session #4,Shashi Kant-My belief is that XP is a very interesting concept and should be covered -at least superficially. It would help to have an idea of such a process even in a highly structured development processes like in the d
2、efense or aerospace industries. So my vote would be to at least touch on the subject, I think even non-software people would find it fascinating.,Follow-up on Session #4,Stephen Friedenthal- Intuitively it seems rational that the best decision making process is coherently logical. However, if I take
3、 it as an axiom that I can never have perfect information this leads to the implication that a perfectly rational and logical decision making process can lead to a faulty conclusionBut, by the same logic this implies that if your logic is flawed you may or may not get the wrong answer So, does this
4、imply that it can be advantageous not to be a rational decision maker or, is there a flaw in this train of thought?,Plan for the Session,What is rationality? Quality Function DeploymentWhat is it for? What is it not for?What is it? How do you use it?Does it work? Next steps,What is Rationality?,“The
5、oretical rationality applies to beliefs e.g. beliefs that are self evident or derived from self evident beliefs by a reliable procedure” “Another account of rational action is . to act rationally is to act on universalizable principles, so that what is a reason for one person must be a reason for ev
6、eryone” “Practical rationality applies to actionsacting rationally simply means acting in a way that is maximally efficient in achieving ones goals” -Cambridge Dictionary of Philosophy,Human rational behavior is shaped by a scissors whose two blades are the structure of task environments and the com
7、putational capabilities of the actor. -Herbert Simon,Simon, H. A., 1990, “Invariants of human behavior,”Annual Review of Psychology, 41,1-19.,“Bounded rationality is a genuinely interdisciplinary topic. Its subject matter is the mechanisms that humans, institutions, and artificial agents use to achi
8、eve their goals. The common denominator is that decisions need to be made with limited time, knowledge, and other resources, and in a world that is uncertain and changing.“,Gigerenzer, G. and R. Selten, 2001, “Rethinking Rationality,” in Bounded Rationality,MIT Press, Cambridge, MA.,“Heuristics that
9、 are matched to particular environments allow agents to be ecologically rational, making adaptive decisions that combine accuracy with speed and frugality. We call the heuristics “fast and frugal” because they process information in a relatively simple way, and they search for little information.“,T
10、odd, P. M., and G. Gigerenzer, 2003, “Bounding Rationality to the World,” Journal of Economic Psychology, v. 24, pp. 143-165.,Concept Question,Consumer reports suggests that a particular car model is the top rated car in its category in overall quality including frequency of repair. Your neighbor pu
11、rchased the same car model six months ago and just experienced a major and costly breakdown. Should you still buy the car?,Concept Question,Long experience suggests that a particular stretch of a river is among the safest for children to swim in. Yesterday your neighbors first born son was eaten by
12、a crocodile in that stretch of river. Should you still let your child swim there?,The Less is More Effect,Goldstein and Gigerenzer(1999) A pair of cities is drawn from a set of the 83 largest German cities The task was to decide which of the two cities in each pair was larger American students accur
13、acy 65% German students accuracy was lower Why? The recognition heuristic works best when information is at an appropriate level (sometimes less information is better),One Reason Decision Making,The “Take The Best” heuristic equals or outperforms any linear decision strategy when information is nonc
14、ompensatory, that is, when the potential contribution of each new cue falls off rapidly so that combinations of later cues cannot outweigh earlier ones (Martignon& Hoffrage,1999). Such environments seem fairly commonplace, at least in an approximately noncompensatory form.,Cognitive Parameters,Langu
15、age Learning in Children,For Adults,For Children,You say: Its two hours past your bedtime. Drink your milk.,They process: Blah blah blah blah blah blah. Drink your milk.,This is a good thing. They learn simple grammar first.,Follow-up on Session #4,Stephen Friedenthal-Intuitively it seems rational t
16、hat the best decision making process is coherently logical. However, if I take it as an axiom that I can never have perfect information this leads to the implication that a perfectly rational and logical decision making process can lead to a faulty conclusionBut, by the same logic this implies that if your logic is flawed you may or may not get the wrong answer So, does this imply that it can be advantageous not to be a rational decision maker or, is there a flaw in this train of thought?,
