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1、大连理工大学博士学位论文摘 要关税同盟是区域经济一体化过程中的一个重要阶段，它实质性地消除了各成员国之间用于所有贸易上的关税和其他限制措施，因此关税同盟的成立即使没有实现各个成员国福利效应的最大化，也提高了整个关税同盟区的福利水平。 以往关税同盟福利效应理论的研究都是以规模收益不变为前提的，即假设不存在规模经济。而事实是：关税同盟的建立使得所有的成员国之间形成了一个大市场，它将带来更高效、更具有竞争力的经济环境，这充分体现在规模经济的出现。本论文正是基于现代经济具有规模经济性的特点，从规模经济的角度研究了关税同盟的福利效应。首先通过对国内外关税同盟福利效应理论的对比分析，确定了本论文的选题角度
2、和研究目标；接着从规模经济的视角，本论文按照层层递进，不断深化的思路从四个方面展开论述：第二章引入两国贸易模型，探讨了规模经济视角下关税同盟福利效应研究的理论依据，着重从关税同盟的多重福利效应以及关税同盟福利效应本身所具有的互利性和冲突性、福利效应分布点的确认以及分布点确认过程中政府的作用等方面进行了探索性研究，并通过引入线形贸易模型和三国贸易模型进行了理论依据的深化；第三章主要给出了规模经济视角下关税同盟福利效应的研究方法，以纳什均衡分析和子博弈完美均衡分析为基础，探索性的应用微积分、立体几何和一般均衡分析的知识确立了关税同盟福利效应分析的研究方法；第四章归纳总结了利用上述理论依据与研究方法
3、，推导出规模经济视角下关税同盟福利效应的几个重要推论， (1)关税同盟区的贸易均衡呈现多重结果， (2)两国模型下关税同盟福利效应呈现两个互利区和一个冲突区， (3)三国模型或多国模型下关税同盟的福利效应呈现多种可能性的分布；第五章对欧盟内英国和法国的福利效应进行了实证分析，检验并证明了两国模型理论依据的正确性及两国模型下关税同盟区的贸易均衡呈现多重结果和关税同盟福利效应呈现两个互利区和一个冲突区这两个推论的有效性，同时还利用研究结果对中国东盟关税同盟区的福利效应进行了预测性分析。本论文得出了两个创新性研究结论：其一，在具有规模经济的自由贸易环境中，关税同盟区内部成员国在福利效应区域方面同时存
4、在着冲突区和互利区，参与关税同盟贸易的成员国之间既有内在的冲突，也能共同获利，内在冲突和共同获利的共存性遵循一个系统的模式，因此关税同盟成员国之阃的贸易并非总是能够提高参与贸易成员国的福利效应；其二，使用博弈论和微积分等量化研究方法对关税同盟福利效应的分析表明：目前，关税同盟区等区域性贸易组织的大量涌现是多边贸易合作加深的一个必然结果，而且随着多边贸易合作程度的加深，关税同盟区的数量和规模都将会上升。本论文的研规模经济视角下关税同盟福利效应研究究结果还弥补了大多数关税同盟理论都适用于发达国家，而对发展中国家的关税同盟分析仍停留在过去60年代进口替代时期的不足，相信本论文的研究成果对认识未来经济
5、一体化发展的主流趋势以及制定和调整我国的对外贸易总体战略和政策等都会有定的借鉴意义。关键词：规模经济；关税同盟；福利效应知识水坝pologoogle为您整理大连理工大学博士学位论文The Research of Welfare Effect on Customs Union Angled on EconomyofScaleAbstractAs a significant phase of regional economy integration,CU(Custom Union)substantiallyabolishes all tariffbarriers and other restric
6、tions t0 trade between member statesalthough CUdoesnt realize the maximum welfare，it does enhance the welfare level of the whole CustomUIlion area111e constant of scale return conditions tlle past welfare effect theory of Custom UnionAfact that CU makes all member states t0 form a huge market with m
7、ore e伍cient andcompetitive economic environment,and this characteristic becomes more and more evidentafter emergence of economy of scaleThiS paper researches the welfare effect of CustomUnionsubstantially basing on this characteristic and angled on the scale ofeconomyFirstlyanalyses the welfare effe
8、ct theory of Custom Union within overseas and domesticand then defines the paperS research angle and objectiveNext,states the paper from fouraspects angled on the scale of economy deeply and furthernle second chapter introducestwo-country model and discusses the theoretical proofofthe welfare effect
9、 on Customs Unionangled on economy of scaleIt emphasizes the conflicts and benefits of welfare effect,thedefinition ofthe welfare effect pon and makes a trial study to the action ofthe government。which define the welfare effect pointIt inlxoduces linear trade model and threecountrymodel to deepen th
10、e theory proofThe third chapter offers research method of welfare effectof Custom Union anglod on the scale of economy and applies the knowledge of the calculusof fluxion,the three dimensions geometric model，general equilibrium analysis based on theNash-equitibrium analysis and sub-game perfection e
11、quilibrium analysisne forth chapterdraws a few important conclusions ofwelfare effect of Custom Union angled on the scale ofeconomy by summarizing the above theoretical proof and research methodThey are that thetrade equilibrium of the Custom UlliOU has multiple results and the welfare effect of Cus
12、tomUIlion has two benefits area and one conflict area within two-country modelBut,the welfareeffect of Custom Union has many possible distributions within the threecountry model andmultiplecountry model111c fifth chapter makes an empirical analysis to the welfare effect ofEngland and France in Europ
13、e UnionIt tests the rights ofthe two-country models theoreticalproof and the effectiveness of the two conclusions that one is the trade equilibrium of theCustom UniOn has multiple results and another is the welfare effect of Custom Ullion has twobenefits area and one conflict area within two-counny
14、modelOtherwiseit forecasts the知识水坝pologoogle为您整理规模经济视角下关税同盟福利效应研究future developing trend of welfare effect within China-ASEAN(Association of SoutheastAsia Nations)Custom Union by utilizing above study results倘S paper alSO gets two innovative conclusions：one is that the members of CustomUIlion exits
15、conflict area and mutual benefits area in welfare effect area under the free tradebackgroundwhich iS scale of economyne members of Custom Union have beth conflictsand benefits，which follow a systematic model，SO the free Uade of the Custom Unjonsmember is not always enhancing their welfare effectAnd
16、another is that calculus and GameTheory a砖used to study welfare effect quantitatively and fmd that it is an inevitable resultthat some regional trade organizations emerge with deeper multilateral trade cooperation，boththe number and scale of Custom UIlion areas will arise in futureFurther,the study resultscounteracts the theorys drawback,in view of the past theoryS assumption can be onlyapplied on developed countries and CUS analysis on devel
